2026 Global Retail Industry Outlook

Consumers are fundamentally reassessing what “value” means. Deloitte’s research reveals that 40% of consumers now demonstrate deal-driven or cost-conscious habits. More significantly, nearly 70% of retail leaders surveyed agree that behaviours such as trading down, shopping value channels, or swapping convenience for savings represent a structural change, not a temporary response to inflation.

This shift extends beyond price. According to Deloitte’s Consumer Loyalty Program Survey, 40% of consumer perception of value is driven by factors beyond price, including quality, customer service, checkout experience, loyalty programs, and employee attitudes. For retailers, this means the traditional discount strategy is insufficient. Success requires building a holistic value ecosystem that balances affordability with quality, service, and trust.

Retailers are responding strategically, with plans to expand value-priced assortments, revamp loyalty programs, and develop flexible product ladders that offer both premium and affordable options. The message is clear: value-seeking behaviour is here to stay, and retailers must adapt their value proposition accordingly.

Artificial intelligence has moved from pilot projects to core operational execution. 68% of retail leaders expect to deploy agentic AI within the next 12 to 24 months. More than 90% expect that AI will be increasingly used over search engines by 2026, while half expect the collapse of today’s multi-step shopping journey by 2027 as shopping moves into a single AI-driven interaction. The impact is already visible: AI referral traffic from ChatGPT accounts for 15 to 20% of discovery for some retailers, and projections estimate AI could handle up to 25% of global e-commerce sales by 2030.

Top AI adoption areas include fraud detection (64% currently using), pricing optimisation (48%), and customer service chatbots (42%). AI is being deployed across the entire customer journey, from discovery and decision-making to checkout and post-purchase support.

However, this rapid adoption comes with a critical caveat: 81% of retail leaders believe Generative AI will weaken brand loyalty by 2027. This underscores a fundamental challenge: retailers must deploy AI strategically to enhance customer experience, not replace human connection. The retailers who succeed will be those who use AI to personalise, optimise, and serve customers better, not those who use it to cut corners or eliminate human touchpoints entirely.

Marketing is going in-house and AI-first. 67% of retail leaders expect to have AI-driven personalisation capabilities within the next year, unlocking tailored experiences, targeted campaigns, and loyalty programs that adapt dynamically to each customer. More significantly, 94% of leaders plan to bring more marketing activities in-house, supported by AI. This represents a decisive move away from external agency dependency toward internal, data-driven marketing capabilities.

Coupled with this shift, 88% of leaders see retail media networks (RMNs) as crucial for revenue growth, with 83% expecting trade promotion budgets to shift toward RMNs. Retailers who invest in marketing technology platforms, build in-house AI capabilities, and leverage data for personalisation will improve cost-effectiveness while building direct customer relationships.

Supply chains are undergoing fundamental restructuring to address cost pressures, geopolitical risks, and evolving consumer expectations. 95% of retailers anticipate rising costs in 2026 due to global trade policies. In response, 66% plan to restructure supply chains through onshoring or nearshoring strategies. Retail leaders are actively reducing technology debt to enable faster innovation, and 59% of leaders anticipate positive ROI from AI-driven supply chain initiatives within 12 months.

Currently, 30% of retailers leverage AI for supply chain visibility, a figure that is expected to rise to 41% within the next year. The focus is on building supply chains that are not just efficient but resilient and capable of adapting to disruptions while maintaining service levels.

A key trend emerging is the shift toward centralisation of internal operations combined with regionalisation of product distribution. This counterintuitive approach aims to deliver goods at record speed while maintaining operational efficiency. Additionally, retailers are transforming physical stores into fulfilment hubs, leveraging brick-and-mortar assets for last-mile logistics and enabling same-day delivery options that consumers increasingly expect.

Despite the headwind of rising costs, 96% of leaders expect industry revenue growth, and 82% anticipate margin expansion. Retailers are planning to gradually adjust retail prices upward, change product mix toward higher-margin items, and increase free shipping thresholds. Critically, 76% are focusing on controlling what they can (costs, pricing, and sourcing), with 71% reporting competitive advantage through cost control.

In 2026, margin management is not about cutting costs indiscriminately. It’s about strategic discipline, optimising product mix, implementing dynamic pricing, maintaining customer trust through transparency, and investing in operational efficiency through automation and AI.