The tax ecosystem stands at a critical juncture where artificial intelligence (AI) has moved from boardroom speculation to operational necessity. Testing the water explores how tax departments are currently using AI and what they can (and arguably should) do today. The second article, Diving in, looks at the critical role of high-quality, accessible data as a foundation, addressing fragmentation challenges, and the strategic options for AI implementation. The third article, Riding the wave, provides a framework with likely future scenarios based on the speed of AI adoption in the tax department and in tax authorities, to aid planning for an AI future.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has transitioned from a futuristic concept to an expected component of today's business landscape. In 2024 in the US alone, AI attracted investment three times greater than Cloud computing (the next most heavily funded sector) attracted a mere decade earlier. By 2026, the total US investment pledged from the US technology giants such as Microsoft, Apple, and OpenAI for AI infrastructure reached US$425 billion and is expected to be US$1.4 trillion over the next four years (Fig 1).
AI can help streamline manual processes by performing initial document reviews and analysis of complex scenarios (e.g., due diligence, controversy, employment status), data review and classification, or preparation for compliance returns. While human validation is always required, AI can increase efficiency and focus.
However, current efficiency gains are a drop in the ocean compared to the hoped for untapped possibilities of AI. The transformative potential of AI in generating data-driven insights, for strategic decision-making, and allowing for quicker responses to market shifts, remains largely unrealized.
What tax leaders can (and arguably should) do now
For an in-depth analysis, download Part one: Testing the water – Current use and opportunities of AI in tax departments.
AI is reshaping the tax function, offering increased opportunities to move from reactive compliance to proactive value creation. Yet, the journey is complex and rarely linear. Tax leaders must navigate legacy systems, regulatory uncertainty, and organizational change while reimagining processes and building a digital workforce. Furthermore, many tax authorities globally are progressing their deployment of AI and advanced analytics as part of Tax Administration 3.0, which companies are expected to keep up with.
For an in-depth analysis, download Part two: Diving in – A strategic roadmap for AI adoption in Tax.
After “testing the water” or even “diving in”, many tax leaders are now considering how to ride the artificial intelligence (AI) wave deliberately. AI is advancing rapidly, investment is increasing, and expectations—from boards, finance leadership, and tax authorities—are rising. Yet progress remains uneven. At this stage, the question is not whether tax functions will engage with AI, but under what conditions they will operate at various stages of adoption. Rather than assuming a single future, scenario thinking allows tax and finance leaders to explore a range of plausible outcomes.
A framework for the future
The following framework is based on two independent but interrelated dimensions: the level of AI adoption within the tax department and progress by the tax authority in implementing AI. These dimensions evolve independently, and misalignment between them can shape the complexity tax departments must manage. Scenario thinking helps leaders anticipate where they are likely to sit over time and plan for differences between their own AI adoption and the progress of tax authorities.
Anticipating the waves
Across all four scenarios, one thing remains constant: the outcome will depend as much on preparation as on the pace of AI adoption. Waiting for certainty may limit strategic options. Acting without considering alternatives can introduce unnecessary risk. Across scenarios, organizations that invest early in data integrity, clarity of decision ownership, and cross-functional collaboration are likely to be better positioned, regardless of how quickly AI adoption accelerates.
For an in-depth analysis, download Part three: Riding the wave – A framework to plan for AI.
AI is already reshaping the tax function, and the organizations that act deliberately now will be better positioned to capture its value as adoption accelerates. Across this series, the path forward is clear: tax leaders should identify where AI can support today’s priorities, strengthen the data foundations needed for responsible adoption, and plan for multiple future scenarios as both businesses and tax authorities evolve. Waiting for certainty may limit strategic options, while early investment in data integrity, governance, cross-functional collaboration, and AI-ready talent can help tax functions move with the wave rather than be shaped by it.
Now is the time to assess your organization’s AI readiness and define a roadmap for tax transformation.