2026 Global Retail Industry Outlook

In 2026, retailers may face a structural shift toward value-seeking as shoppers reconsider what feels like a fair price. Four in 10 Americans are now deal-driven or cost-conscious, including higher-income households. Yet value is not only about price since up to 40% of brand value perception comes from non-price factors like quality, service, checkout ease, loyalty, and employee interactions. Looking ahead, retailers that deliver clear value while elevating experience and trust cues can strengthen loyalty, sustain pricing power, and protect margins.

AI in retail is rapidly shifting from pilots to core operations, with most retailers already deploying it or planning to within 12 months and 68% expecting agentic AI adoption in the next 12 to 24 months. At the same time, shopping is moving to AI intermediaries, with chat-based tools already driving 15% to 20% of referrals for some retailers and forecasts suggesting agents could influence up to 25% of global e-commerce sales by 2030. In 2026 and beyond, retailers that adapt early are more likely to gain an advantage as AI agents become a primary interface for online consumer transactions.

In 2026, retailers are positioned to leverage AI to improve marketing decision-making and scale execution across channels. 67% of retail executives surveyed expect to have AI-driven personalization capabilities within the next year, enabling experiences tailored to varied customer preferences. In 2026, as GenAI tools become more accessible, retailers might stand out by combining creative ideas, customer data, and AI to deliver unique brand experiences.

Supply chain transformation is becoming a key driver of retail resilience and competitiveness. With 95% of surveyed retail executives expecting global trade policies to push costs higher, many are moving beyond small changes to the current setup and rethinking supply chain design to better manage cost pressure and operational complexity. Retailers that act now, shifting from minor adjustments to end-to-end supply chain redesign, may be better positioned to manage rising costs, shorten lead times, and stay competitive in 2026.

In a year where growth is the priority, financial discipline will be essential to keep profitability on track with ambitious targets. Nearly three in four surveyed retail executives say their companies are focusing on what they can control rather than expending resources on macro factors, and those doing it well are seeing tangible results, with 71% reporting a competitive edge from stronger cost control. Sustainable growth in 2026 depends on stronger cost control and productivity.