Conventional planning tools enable companies to use “best case–worst case” scenarios to make a relatively exact assessment of the future–mainly for two to three years ahead, in some cases however also up to a maximum of five years. Scenario Analysis lets you look ahead more than twice as far. Instead of delivering a likely range of target parameters, as is done by planning tools, scenario analyses enable one to look ahead at different alternative futures that seem realistic from today’s expert view. Scenarios are therefore not intended for concrete corporate planning, but are rather spotlights that illustrate especially concise, but nevertheless realistic developments, and point out their opportunities and risks.

The current Deloitte study “Growth Engine Machinery Sector 2030” shows that even critical future developments will not lead to the demise of the industry in the DACH region. On the contrary, engineering know-how from Germany, Austria and Switzerland will continue to be in demand worldwide even if tech companies will dominate the business or competitors from China succeed in taking over technological leadership in the industry. On the other hand, in none of the scenarios can industry sit back and relax. Either way, the next decades will require great efforts from mechanical engineering companies

Ecosystems and machine specialization

One basic assumption of the study is that future machine offerings will continue to follow the trend toward increasingly complex packages of machine + service + software. For machine builders, this means working more and more in one or more ecosystems where specialized partners are responsible, for instance, for data analytics, software or online services. Within an ecosystem, the partner who contributes the decisive value-added steps is usually the leader. Therefore, "power in the ecosystem" forms the first of the two variables in the scenario selection.

A second basic assumption of the study is that digitalization tends to enable more flexible and more modular machines, with highly adaptable software at their core. These "standard machines" compete with customized "special machines"–with the latter having shaped the mechanical engineering recipe for success of the last decades. Which of these two principles will prevail in which segment in the future is still open and will presumably only be decided over the next few decades. Therefore, "specialization versus standardization" is the second scenario variable. 

Dealing with uncertainty

The four scenarios created represent hypotheses that–from today’s view–could realistically occur by the year 2030 and that are of equal weight. Moreover, the study far from shows all scenarios and only considers the axes of “Power in the Ecosystem” and “Machine Specialization” as described above. Many other factors are neglected, including unforeseeable crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. So, how should machine builders deal with such a high degree of uncertainty in order to be better prepared for the medium-term future? In their study, the Deloitte experts have defined eight measures for this purpose that are useful in nearly all cases and therefore can be implemented without further concern: 

• Digitalize core processes–A strategic long-term task, where customers and their operations should be the focus.
• Think globally–Cultural openness and supra-regional online solutions can make many things cheaper and better, from development and service to internal collaboration.
• Maintain resilience–The DACH machinery sector is characterized by traditional entrepreneurship. Despite all prophecies of doom, this is a strength that must be preserved. There is a need to catch up with issues such as cyber security and the readiness to create shared ecosystems.
• Build in sustainability–Sustainability could become the future unique selling proposition of the DACH machinery sector. Moreover: Anyone who has already seriously engaged in this activity usually reports significant benefits.
• Set up an ecosystem–An ecosystem is essential for remaining relevant to the customer in the future. This includes, in particular, IT partners, technology partners and risk management partners. 
• Maintain customer access–An own customer access and direct customer contact form the basis for good customer knowledge and further development of machines and services.
• Define Asia strategy: The Far East market is becoming more mature and demanding. Local marketing and local partners who understand the market are becoming increasingly important. 
• Cover workforce needs creatively: DACH machine builders are often little known and located in areas that are not attractive for new employees. Flexible career paths, cooperation agreements with schools and other companies as well as online collaborations might be interesting here.

Download the complete study “Growth Engine Machinery Sector–Four scenarios for a successful future in 2030” here and learn more about the scenarios and the fields of action for mechanical engineering companies. We foresee a positive future despite all the challenges, but further big efforts are needed to make the machinery sector the growth engine in the DACH region in 2030.

Four realistic scenarios: Machinery sector in 2030