The State of the Deal and the Deloitte Queensland Index – Q3 2024
November 2024
Welcome to The State of the Deal, featuring the latest 202nd edition of the Deloitte Queensland Index, an analysis of Queensland-listed companies on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).
The Australian economy has shown signs of recovery and growth in Q3 2024 with GDP forecast to grow to 1.7% by December 2024, despite ongoing challenges such as inflation, geopolitical events, and the increased cost of living. The Deloitte Queensland Index experienced an increase of 4.6% in Q3 2024 compared to the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries and Dow Jones Industrial Average which returned 6.5% and 8.2% respectively. The Hang Seng and FTSE 100 also experienced increases of 19.3% and 0.9% respectively whilst the Nikkei 225 delivered a negative return of 4.2%.
Year-on-year CPI to September 2024 came in at 2.8%, significantly down from 3.8% in the June quarter and the lowest annual inflation rate since the March 2021 quarter, driven by a fall in prices for electricity and automotive fuel.
The cash rate remained steady from Jun-24 to Sep-24 at 4.35%. The unemployment rate increased from 4.0% to 4.1% however was still well below the pre-COVID rate of 5.6% in March 2020. This aligned with RBA’s forecasts, demonstrating that monetary policy appears to be having the intended impact on the Australian Economy.
Local to Queensland, the economy is expected to remain resilient in 2024-25, supported by rising household consumption, growth of 0.1% in the June quarter, and international exports. Despite housing affordability being a key concern, household spending in Queensland is expected to gradually improve through the rest of 2024 and into 2025, with growth of 1.9% forecast for the 2024-25 financial year, driven by an improvement in real wages, as well as substantial government support for households as part of the Queensland state election campaign. The 2024-25 State Budget handed down support measures in addition to the Federal Budget, including 50 cent fares across public transport, discounts on vehicle registration, additional electricity bill support and extended eligibility for the first home concession.
Our Queensland Economic Update explores the key drivers of Queensland’s economy in the third quarter of 2024.
Key highlights from the Q3 2024 report include:
- The Deloitte Queensland Index: comprised of 154 companies returned to growth with a 10.9% increase for the twelve months to Sep-24 compared to the ASX All Ordinaries which increased by 17.8% for the same period. Total market capitalisation of Queensland-based ASX listed companies grew to $123.9b at Sep-24 compared to $119.8b at Sep-23.
- Sector mix: Compared to Jun-24, the composition of the Index as at Sep-24 has shifted towards Technology, Media and Telecom driven by growth in market capitalisation of Technology One Limited and NEXTDC.
- The Top 10 Companies in the Deloitte Queensland Index saw an 8.4% increase in total market capitalisation from $77.6b in Q2 2024 to $84.2b at Sep-24 with the companies ranked 11-100 experiencing a 2.3% decrease from $40.0b at Jun-24 to $39.1b at Sep-24.
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