The Deloitte Queensland Index and State of the Deal Report – Q4 2025
February 2026
Welcome to The State of the Deal, featuring the latest (205th) edition of the Deloitte Queensland Index, an analysis of Queensland-listed companies on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).
Welcome to The State of the Deal, featuring the latest (205th) edition of the Deloitte Queensland Index, an analysis of Queensland-listed companies on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).
The Deloitte Queensland Index (comprising 141 companies as at 31 December 2025) experienced a negative return of 3.9% in Q4 2025 compared to a 1.3% decrease in the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries. Total market capitalisation of Queensland-based ASX listed companies declined from $135.3b at 30 September 2025 to $130.1b at 31 December 2025. Large declines in market capitalisation were experienced by companies in the Technology, Media and Telecom sector with concerns over valuation of technology shares and broader AI outlook.
Our Queensland Economic Update explores the key drivers of Queensland’s economy in the last quarter of 2025 as well as insight into the M&A environment and activity. The December quarter of 2025 saw a steady cash rate from the RBA, as unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.5% at Sep-25 and CPI grew to 3.8% from 3.2% at Sep-25. Inflation was driven by electricity prices rising 21.5% due to the State Government rebates ending, whilst rental prices rose 3.9% over the 12 months to Dec-25, comparative to a 3.0% rise in new dwellings.
As we enter 2026, Queensland’s economic trajectory will be shaped by key policy decisions, global economic conditions, and consumer confidence. The state’s rapid population growth (relative to other states) brings opportunities for expansion, but also intensifies pressure on housing, infrastructure, and services.
Key highlights from the Q4 2025 report include:
- The Deloitte Queensland Index: comprising 141 companies experienced a 5.2% increase in the twelve months to December 2025, whereas the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index grew by 7.1% over the same period.
- Sector mix: Compared to Sep-25, the composition of the Index as at Dec-25 has shifted towards Industrials, Consumer, Real Estate and Energy & Resources, and away from companies in the Financials and Technology, Media and Telecom sectors due to concerns in the technology market and significant weather events adversely impacting insurance companies.
- M&A in Queensland: the volume of transactions in Queensland increased by 12% from 91 in H1 2025 to 102 deals in H2 2025 with disclosed value more than doubling from $7.2b to $15.4b over the same period. M&A activity is gathering pace in Australia as dealmakers find economic conditions more conducive and increasingly focus on their long-term strategies, even as the global environment remains unpredictable. Lower inflation, stable interest rates (up until the increase in Feb-26) , rising real wages and a robust labour market are lifting the domestic outlook and market activity.
- Heads of M&A survey: Deloitte conducted in-depth interviews with over 100 M&A leaders across a broad range of ASX-listed, un-listed and PE-owned companies to gather the collective sentiment on the economic outlook, top M&A priorities for 2026 and key deal challenges. Findings of these have been summarised in our report titled “The Deal in Focus: Heads of M&A Survey 2025 ”.
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