The State of the Deal and the Deloitte Queensland Index – Q4 2024
February 2025
Welcome to The State of the Deal, featuring the latest (203rd) edition of the Deloitte Queensland Index, an analysis of Queensland-listed companies on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).
The Deloitte Queensland Index (comprising 154 companies as at 31 December 2024) experienced a negative return of 2.9% in Q4 2024 compared to a 1.4% decrease in the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries. Total market capitalisation of Queensland-based ASX listed companies declined from $123.9b at 30 September 2024 to $121.2b at 31 December 2024. Large declines in market capitalisation were experienced by companies in the Consumer and Industrials sector with cost-of-living pressures leading to weaker consumer spending and an uncertain outlook (at the end of Q1 and Q2) for full-year FY25 results.
Although national annual CPI to December 2024 came in at 2.4% (driven by a fall in prices for electricity, fuel and new dwellings) and is down from 4.1% in Dec-23 to 3.8% in Jun-24 and 2.8% in Sep-24, this is yet to translate fully into lower price for discretionary consumer goods and services.
Our Queensland Economic Update explores the key drivers of Queensland’s economy in the last quarter of 2024 as well as insights into the M&A environment and activity. Quarter four of 2024 saw a change in state government with a focus on improving housing affordability, including partnerships with local governments and the private sector aiming to increase the housing supply with more information to come through the state budget. Meanwhile a period of stable interest rates has provided a more predictable financing environment.
As we enter 2025, Queensland’s economic trajectory will be shaped by key policy decisions, global economic conditions, and consumer confidence. The state’s rapid population growth (relative to other states) brings opportunities for expansion, but also intensifies pressure on housing, infrastructure, and services.
Key highlights from the Q4 2024 report include:
- The Deloitte Queensland Index: comprising 154 companies experienced a 4.1% increase in the twelve months to December 2024, whereas the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index grew by 7.5% over the same period.
- Sector mix: Compared to Sep-24, the composition of the Index as at Dec-24 saw growth in the Financials and Technology, Media, and Telecom companies, offset by a market capitalisation decline in Consumer, Industrials, Energy & Resources and Real Estate companies. Reduced consumer spending and weaker full-year outlook amid ongoing cost-of-living pressures and uncertainties on the price of coal (stemming from potential US-China trade and tariff decisions) were a factor in this mix shift.
- M&A volume in Queensland: the volume of transactions in Queensland increased by 15% to 146 deals in H2 2024 with combined disclosed value of $5.2b. Upcoming merger law reforms (requiring ACCC approval above certain thresholds) are expected to increase near-term M&A volumes as parties aim to complete deals before the new rules becomes effective from Jan-26. This may be offset in part by potential adverse impact of international trade and tariff policies of the US (following the Nov-24 election) slowing down growth in China and, in turn, exports of Australia.
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