Australian mining on a rising trend
Australian mining is expanding and has further potential in a world seeking surety of supply. Technology may play an increasing role in delivery.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices to their highest level since early 2022. As a result, the ASX 200 Energy index – a benchmark for Australia's listed oil, gas and coal producers – has rallied to its highest level in nearly a year. Beyond the headline disruption, the latest data paints a positive picture of Australian mining output, investment and exploration.
Mining was the fastest-growing industry in the December quarter, becoming an increasingly important driver of Australia’s economic growth. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) National Accounts show that mining gross value added grew by 3.7% over the year to December 2025 – well above GDP growth of 2.6% - marking the first time in nearly two years that the sector has outpaced the broader economy. Iron ore output rebounded after earlier supply disruptions in the year and gold production climbed on the back of record prices.
Exploration spending is also strengthening. Gold exploration expenditure surged to a record high in the December quarter, while total new-deposit spending across all commodities grew by 7% year-on-year. The lift in exploration suggests the industry is investing to sustain its production base as existing reserves deplete.
Although exploration and output are expanding, investment has not yet followed to the same extent. Capital expenditure has stabilised at around 1.9% of GDP for the last six years after reaching a peak of 6.2% during the height of the mining boom. At the same time, mining's share of total private capital expenditure has eased to around a quarter, down from close to 30% in 2021-22, as non-mining spending on data centres and energy infrastructure has grown more rapidly. To sustain higher levels of mining output, additional investment – particularly in technology – may be required.
Deloitte’s Tracking the Trends 2026 highlights the growing role of technology in maintaining mining’s competitive edge. The report notes that the exponential growth of AI is presenting transformative opportunities to elevate operational resilience and competitiveness by boosting productivity and revolutionising mineral discovery. In exploration, it identifies that the starting point for future discoveries could be data, with firms that digitise and integrate diverse sources best positioned to leverage AI for faster, smarter discoveries.
Australia's mining sector has long been a global leader in automation, but the ABS data shows that mining multifactor productivity fell 3.3% in 2024-25, the fifth consecutive annual decline. Continued technology adoption and investment will be important to reversing that trend.
Australian mining will enter the second half of 2026 with strong output growth and record exploration spending. Export revenues are expected to hold above $370 billion over the next two years, with volumes near historic peaks. Sustaining these output levels will depend on growing investment and translating this into sustained productivity gains.
This newsletter was distributed on 20th March 2026. For any questions/comments on this week's newsletter, please contact our authors:
This blog was co-authored by Reid Quekett (Economist, Deloitte Access Economics).
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