Dynamics of the Australian Superannuation System: Super system to top $12 trillion by 2045

30 June 2026: Australia’s superannuation system will triple within 20 years and be dominated by a handful of mega-funds as consolidation, technological change and an ageing population intensify the challenge of turning larger balances into sustainable retirement income.

According to The Next 20 Years to 2045, the twelfth edition of Deloitte’s Dynamics of the Australian Superannuation System report, total net superannuation assets in Australia are expected to increase from around $4 trillion in 2025 to $12.4 trillion by 2045, equivalent to approximately $7.5 trillion in today’s dollars.

Releasing the report, Deloitte Actuarial Consulting Partner Andrew Boal said: “Australia’s super system continues to grow strongly, but the real test is whether the system can translate that growth into sustainable retirement income and improved outcomes for members.

“As balances rise, there is an urgent need for more sophisticated, fit-for-purpose retirement products that can balance income, flexibility and longevity protection for a much larger and more diverse retiree population.

“Just as important will be how the funds engage with their members who are approaching or are in retirement, as it will not be easy for most members to navigate the complexity on their own to tailor their own portfolio of products and settings to meet their individual needs.”

Mega-funds tighten grip

The report shows the superannuation system has moved firmly into a mega-fund era, with consolidation continuing to reshape the market.

The report estimates the number of mega-funds with assets under management exceeding $100 billion will grow from 10 to 12 within a few years. Meanwhile, corporate funds have largely disappeared, while the not-for-profit sector now controls more than half the system. Retail funds (including platforms) and SMSFs each account for about a quarter.

Diane Somerville, Principal – Superannuation at Deloitte, said: “The industry has consolidated rapidly, and the largest funds now dominate both assets and member flows. The top 25 superannuation entities now hold 97% of APRA-regulated assets, with the top 10 controlling 73%.

“We expect that there will be further rationalisation, with the few remaining corporate funds eventually moving into aligned public offer industry funds or retail master trusts. While some smaller funds will remain, we anticipate they will offer specialist investments or a targeted or niche member proposition to differentiate themselves.”

Industry funds to expand dominance

According to the report, industry funds are projected to strengthen their lead as the dominant segment as other fund types stagnate or decline.

Industry funds already account for around 46% of total assets in 2025 and are projected to expand their share to 55% by 2045. This growth is being driven by strong default inflows, lower average fees and ongoing fund consolidation. By contrast, the retail and SMSF segments are expected to lose relative share over time.

Andrew Boal said: “Retail funds are stabilising after a period of decline, but growth is increasingly concentrated in adviser-led platforms rather than traditional master trusts. SMSFs, while still significant, are projected to gradually decline as a proportion of the system, reflecting an ageing member base and increasing drawdowns.

“Public sector funds are also expected to shrink slightly as a share of the market, while corporate funds continue to fade, effectively disappearing as standalone entities.”

Superfunds’ growing scale to reshape ASX dynamics

Australia’s superannuation system is expected to play an increasingly dominant role in domestic equity markets, with asset allocation decisions carrying significant implications for the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).

Super funds already allocate a substantial share of portfolios to Australian equities, currently representing just over 36% of total ASX market capitalisation. If these allocation settings remain broadly unchanged as the system grows, this share could approach around 50% over time.

Diane Somerville said: “This growing concentration raises a number of structural challenges. The ASX is relatively small and heavily weighted towards financials and resources, meaning increasing super fund ownership could heighten exposure to sector concentration and macroeconomic risk.

“With a relatively concentrated set of listed opportunities domestically, growth in superannuation capital is likely to amplify focus on optimal portfolio diversification and create greater demand for international assets and alternative investment opportunities.”

Retirement is the next battleground

With more than three million Australians aged 55 to 64 and approaching retirement, the retirement sector is set for further growth, and retirement outcomes are becoming a bigger priority for funds.

Over the next 10 years, the proportion of members with less than $250,000 in super at the point of retirement is expected to halve, and by 2045 around 70% will have more than $500,000 (in today’s dollars) at retirement.

Andrew Boal said the implications were significant: “The question is no longer whether the system can build balances, but whether it can convert those balances into simple, effective and reliable retirement income.

“With significantly higher balances and more retirees coming through, funds need simple, tailored retirement solutions that align with retirees’ varied motivations, fears, and preferences.”

Digital competition intensifies

At the same time, competition for members is intensifying, with a structural shift towards direct-to-consumer channels. Regulatory changes such as stapling, combined with declining adviser numbers and stronger digital capability, are reshaping how funds attract and retain members.

Members are increasingly engaging directly with their super funds, comparing their performance and benefits against other funds, and switching based on reputation.

While industry funds continue to dominate natural cash flows, competitive cash flows are an entirely different matter. Over the last decade, there has been a strong increase in competitive cash flows to platforms while other retail funds have generally been in decline.

Andrew Boal said: “The assumption that members are disengaged is being challenged. Funds are competing more directly on member experience, digital capability and value, driving greater competitive intensity across the system.

“The next phase of the system will be defined by how well funds use data, technology and insight to deliver for members, particularly in retirement. Those that can deploy scale effectively will be best positioned to compete.”

About Dynamics of the Australian Superannuation System

Dynamics of the Australian Superannuation System is a biennial report that uses Deloitte’s SPROUT Super Model to examine the size, structure and evolution of Australia’s superannuation system, including projected asset growth, market dynamics, structural shifts, retirement income trends, and the implications for the system over the long term.