Dynamics of the Australian Superannuation System
The next 20 years to 2045
Australia’s superannuation system will triple within 20 years and be dominated by a handful of mega-funds as consolidation, technological change and an ageing population intensify the challenge of turning larger balances into sustainable retirement income.
In the twelfth edition of our Dynamics of the Australian Superannuation System report, total net superannuation assets in Australia are expected to increase from around $4 trillion in 2025 to $12.4 trillion by 2045, equivalent to approximately $7.5 trillion in today’s dollars. Australia’s super system continues to demonstrate strong growth, but the real test is whether the system can translate that growth into sustainable retirement income and improved outcomes for members.
"The next phase of the system will be defined by how well funds use data, technology and insight to deliver for members, particularly in retirement. Those that can deploy scale effectively will be best positioned to compete.”
Andrew Boal– Partner, Actuarial Consulting, Deloitte
Within this report, we have considered the following factors reshaping the Australian superannuation industry:
- Mega-funds tighten grip: The superannuation market is consolidating fast. Mega-funds exceeding $100 billion AUM are set to grow from 10 to 12, corporate funds have largely disappeared, and the not-for-profit sector now controls more than half the system.
- Industry funds to expand dominance: Industry funds hold ~46% of total assets in 2025 and are projected to reach 55% by 2045, powered by strong default inflows, lower fees, and on going fund consolidation. Retail and SMSF segments are expected to lose ground.
- Super funds' growing scale to reshape ASX dynamics: Super funds already represent over 36% of ASX market capitalisation. If current allocations hold as the system grows, that share could approach 50%, with major implications for domestic equity markets.
- Retirement is the next battleground: With more than three million Australians aged 55 to 64 nearing retirement, outcomes are a growing priority. By 2045, around 70% of retirees are expected to hold more than $500,000 (in today's dollars) at retirement.
- Digital competition intensifies: Stapling reforms, declining adviser numbers, and stronger digital capability are pushing competition toward direct-to-consumer channels. Members are increasingly comparing and switching funds on reputation, with competitive cash flows shifting strongly toward platforms.
The task at hand
We expect the industry’s immediate focus to include:
The system is growing in scale, maturity and complexity, and the window to lead is open but it won't stay that way. Funds that act now, investing in the right capabilities and making the right strategic bets, will define the next era. Those that wait will spend it catching up.
We trust you will find this report both useful and thought-provoking, and we look forward to discussing it with you. If you would like more detailed information on the market projections set out in this report to inform your business planning, we would be happy to discuss how we can support you.
Read our Previous report
