2026 banking and capital markets outlook
As the banking industry adapts to a low-growth, lower-rate environment, banks can reinforce their foundation for sustainable growth with ingenuity and discipline.
2026 appears to be shaping up as a defining year for US banks. Macroeconomic uncertainty, diverging consumer sentiment, and persistent inflation could test banks’ revenues and profitability, even as strong capital positions provide resilience. Banks could be forced to defend margins, diversify fee income, and prepare for increased competition from nonbank entities.
The payments landscape also seems to be at a crossroads. Stablecoins, backed by the new Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act legislation, could impact deposit flows and challenge traditional payment rails. Banks should decide whether to issue, custody, process, or partner—and do so quickly, as tokenized deposits and programmable money reshape customer expectations.
Meanwhile, AI is at an inflection point. Many banks are under pressure to scale and move beyond pilots, but 2026 will likely demand robust, enterprise-level strategies, governance, and a disciplined approach to return on investment. Agentic AI offers breakthrough potential, but only if supported by AI-ready data—accurate, timely, broad, and securely governed. Without this data foundation, even the most ambitious models could stall.
Separately, financial crime risks are escalating, fueled by AI-enabled fraud, sanctions complexity, and rising costs. Integrated, tech-driven defenses are imperative.
This report offers potential prescriptions for banks in the above areas. The leaders who act decisively in 2026 may shape the future of banking.
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Michael Williams
