The Deloitte Queensland Index and State of the Deal Report – Q1 2025
June 2025
Welcome to the 204th edition of the Deloitte Queensland Index and State of the Deal Report, an analysis of Queensland-listed companies on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).
With easing inflation and reduced wage pressures, RBA lowered the official cash rate to 4.10% in Mar-25, marking the first cut since 2020. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 2.4% to Mar-25 (2.4% to Dec-24) and the increase in new dwellings price lowered to 1.4% over the 12 months to Mar-25 from 2.9% to Dec-24. The broader economic outlook presented in the 2025-2026 federal budget forecasts a slowdown in growth compared to previous years. Australia’s economic outlook is further expected to be impacted by global challenges such as ongoing trade tensions and weakening international conditions.
Local to Queensland, the Deloitte Queensland Index returned negative 9.1% in Q1 2025 (negative 2.9% in Q4 2024, negative 9.1% for 12 months ended Mar-25) compared to the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries index which returned a negative 4.4% for Q1 2025 (negative 1.4% in Q4 2024 and negative 1.2% for 12 months ended Mar-25). The decline this quarter was driven by a contraction in the Financials sector (mainly due to a return of capital by Suncorp) and significant downward pressure experienced in the Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) sector amid fears of over-investment in AI. The Energy and Resources sector experienced a contraction from a decline in coal prices with trade tensions and tariffs continuing to impact to all sectors. In contrast, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index was less affected, due to its significantly lower weighting in TMT and E&R.
Key highlights from the Q1 2025 report include:
- The Deloitte Queensland Index: comprised of 149 companies and the total market capitalisation declined from $121.2b as at 31 December 2024 to $109.8b as at 31 March 2025. Representing 19.0% of the Queensland Index, Suncorp completed its $4.1b capital return through a dividend and cash payment accompanied by a share consolidation process, decreasing its market capitalisation by $3.4b.
- Sector mix: Compared to Dec-24, all sectors experienced a decline in the market capitalisation this quarter with the composition of the index shifting towards Industrials, Consumer and Real Estate as a result of the significant contractions in TMT, E&R and Financials.
- The Top 10 Companies in the Deloitte Queensland Index saw a 9.4% decrease in total market capitalisation reducing from $83.0b at Dec-24 to $75.2b at Mar-25 (including Suncorp’s $3.4b reduction discussed above) with the companies ranked 11-100 experiencing a 8.5% decrease from $37.3b at Dec-24 to $34.2b at Mar-25.
Our Queensland Economic Update explores the key drivers of Queensland’s economy in the first quarter of 2025. Strong population growth and government investment are supporting activity, however cost-of-living pressures and weaker export demand are impacting momentum. Overall, the Queensland economy is anticipated to increase by 1.1% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 however Australia’s economic outlook is expected to be impacted by global challenges such as trade tensions and weakening international conditions.
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