The global automotive industry is on the cusp of a massive transformation. With megatrends likely to redefine the future of car sales and the automotive aftermarket worldwide, this study seeks to quantify trends’ effects and opportunities for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs)—while providing strategies and approaches to navigate the dynamic and challenging transition.
The future of car sales in 2035
To get a clear picture of current industry trends and their implications for the future of car sales and the automotive aftermarket, including impact on OEM revenues and profit, this study seeks to answer the following key questions:
Key takeaways from the study
The study underlines the enormous pressure on car manufacturers to act. This pressure was already high before the coronavirus outbreak—it will further increase the need for transformation in the industry. As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, we expect the developments forecasted in the study to occur faster and more intensively.
Trend analysis and forecast of industry drivers
For each automotive trend, Deloitte forecasts a base case and a disruptive case of trend emergence. This reflects different manifestations of consumer, business, technological, and regulatory forces and lays the foundation for a nuanced assessment of trends. The study focuses on industry drivers with the highest potential for disruption, ultimately resulting in four main trends that will shape the future of car sales and the automotive aftermarket until 2035:
See graphic: Share of cars with V2X functionality for new vehicle sales in 2035.
See graphic: Share of cars with alternative drivetrains for new car sales in 2035.
See graphic: Utilization per vehicle measured in average kilometers driven per year in 2035.
See graphic: Share of autonomous vehicles (level 4/5) for new vehicle sales in 2035.
See graphic: Advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) levels–overview.
As an integral part of this study, a model to assess the quantitative implications of possible future states on OEM revenues and profit pools was designed. For each revenue stream, in both new and traditional business segments, it analyzed how levers react to the emergence of industry trends in order to calculate OEM revenues and profits.
Conclusion and priority actions