South Africa enters the 2026 budget cycle amid sustained pressure to close the fiscal gap, reduce fraud and accelerate tax reform efforts. As a result, valued-added tax (VAT) as a self-assessment tax may be scrutinised more rigorously. Vendors may expect a notable shift in how VAT compliance is monitored and enforced as a mechanism to narrow revenue shortfalls and achieve more targeted results.
In April 2025, the National Treasury withdrew its budgeted VAT rate hike after political opposition. Consequently, proposed expenditure adjustments needed to be made to cover a projected R75 billion revenue shortfall over the medium term to maintain economic sustainability. Although VAT is a viable lever for revenue sustainability, given the public sentiment and political optics, another proposed rate hike in the near term is improbable, despite fiscal pressures.
The South African Revenue Service (SARS) is therefore far more likely to pursue efficiency gaps and tax reform through alternative methods in this cycle.
SARS has already signalled a shift towards broader efforts to transform tax processes and close the fiscal gap through its VAT Modernisation Project initiated in 2023. Structured legal definitions were introduced in the 2025 Tax Administration Laws Amendment Bill in November 2025 for e-invoicing, e-reporting and an interoperability framework designed to support real-time VAT data transmission, laying the foundation for more granular oversight.
However, SARS may need to intensify compliance-driven measures until its real-time VAT journey matures and is ready to bear fruit.
What to expect?
Looking ahead, we expect a drive by SARS to identify non-compliance faster than before. However, with the real-time VAT reporting groundwork still in its infancy, alternative compliance methods may need to be exhausted as an interim solution. This would place more pressure on audit and verification processes to find anomalies or result in other methods employed by SARS to achieve results. Vendors could however be headed for compliance fatigue and cash flow strains, in order for SARS to protect and expand the VAT base.
Nevertheless, a tightened compliance model may encourage vendors to invest in more robust governance processes and adopt better data sources, internal controls, ultimately paving the way for VAT modernisation as the natural next step.