The South African mining sector’s shared budget priorities

Globally, the energy sector is navigating a complex landscape, one being shaped by economic uncertainty, supply chain disruption and consistently evolving regulation. Of particular interest, mining and metals companies are redefining how they create and share value.

In Deloitte’s recent Tracking the Trends 2025 report, we have explored how mining and metals organisations and their broader ecosystem of collaborators can work together to redefine their capabilities and output. In light of the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), and the expectations of the upcoming 2026 National Budget Speech, three themes consistently emerge, forming a view of how the South African mining sector and the national fiscal framework could aim to navigate uncertainty, accelerate growth, and strengthen resilience.

1. Structural reform and productivity enhancement

Structural reform is a central driver of long-term competitiveness and stability – both in the mining sector and within South Africa’s broader economic governance framework.

Mining companies are operating in an era of unprecedented geopolitical and technological transformation. Mining houses must adapt by adopting new leadership models, digitising operations, scaling artificial intelligence, and redesigning supply chains to be more agile and resilient. These reforms are not surface level; they require a shift in the mindset of leadership, as well as a deeper integration of data-driven decision making and modern operating systems to unlock productivity and improve cost efficiency.

Within South Africa’s fiscal policy, similar principles apply. The 2025 MTBPS emphasises energy sector reforms, improvements in logistics and more disciplined public-sector management as fundamental to restoring economic momentum. Over-arching initiatives like Operation Vulindlela and the Targeted and Responsible Savings framework are intended to reduce inefficiencies, eliminate waste, and ensure that resources are directed toward high-impact programmes. The emphasis on reform is also directly tied to capacity and service delivery, an area that has historically constrained productivity across both government and the private sector. In 2025, further reforms were approved to support industrial investment, with special economic zones, benefitting from faster permitting and values-added tax exemptions.

However, initiatives need to provide competitive costs in energy and logistics in the near term, to be able to safeguard investment in the mining sector and respond to growing demand for in-country beneficiation, as well aas catalyse the opportunities for South Africa to become a competitive role-player in the value chain for Africa’s mineral and metal production.

It is recognised that South Africa has approved several protective measures to restore the ferroalloy industry. This includes export duties on chrome ore and preferential electricity pricing for smelters, and an export permit regime requiring all chrome concentrate exports to be approved by the International Trade Administration Commission^[1]. However, operating economics in ferroalloys and in other mid-stream industries have long been an issue in the country. It is not certain if these measures will have the required effect, now that many smelters have either entered care and maintenance or closed indefinitely.

Looking ahead to the 2026 Budget Speech, widespread expectations are that Finance Minister, Enoch Godongwana, will double down on these reform commitments. Structural reforms – especially those affecting water infrastructure, electricity reliability and state-owned enterprises – are expected to be central to the national agenda. These reforms are viewed as essential enablers for improved investment flows, reduced operational risk, and greater economic competitiveness. It is also crucial that in a volatile geopolitical and trade environment, South Africa’s government responds with haste to policy shifts from the Africa Green Minerals Strategy, South Africa’s own Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy, as well as the South African Renewable Energy Masterplan and implements long-term measures. This way, government can align sectoral support for the installation of competitive exploration, mining and beneficiation in South Africa.  

2. Fiscal consolidation, debt stabilisation and financial discipline

Another clear point of convergence is the focus on fiscal consolidation and the restoration of financial stability at both the corporate and national levels.

In the mining context, our recent research highlights the importance of disciplined portfolio management, capital optimisation, and robust risk frameworks as companies navigate volatile commodity markets. The need for resilience is emphasised repeatedly, reflecting a global environment where cost inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and supply chain pressures require tighter planning and financial prudence.

Nationally, South Africa’s fiscal stance mirrors this discipline. The 2025 MTBPS signals a turning point: public debt is projected to stabilise for the first time in over a decade, and the country has returned to a primary surplus. The narrowing of the budget deficit, combined with improving revenue performance, marks a shift toward restoring investor confidence and creating fiscal space for future reforms.

Expectations for the 2026 National Budget suggest that this consolidation path will continue. With sluggish growth and persistent expenditure pressures, the government is expected to maintain a tight fiscal stance, potentially including further tax adjustments, more efficient spending, and sustained efforts to curb waste across departments. The message is clear: fiscal resilience is a prerequisite for sustainable development, improved creditworthiness, and macroeconomic stability.

3. Infrastructure and energy investment as catalysts for growth

The third shared theme is the recognition that infrastructure and energy stability form the foundation of long-term economic expansion.

Deloitte’s mining trends report emphasises that the sector’s future competitiveness depends heavily on energy reliability, logistics capacity and digital infrastructure. Supply chain resilience, decarbonisation efforts and advanced digital systems all require a robust and stable infrastructure base.

For South Africa, the MTBPS positions infrastructure (particularly in energy, water and logistics) as the fastest‑growing area of expenditure. Infrastructure is not only viewed as a tool for boosting competitiveness but also as a catalyst for employment, particularly among youth and technical workers. In the current mining environment, the infrastructure projects that attract this investment should have local economic significance, demonstrate cost-effective physical and digital solutions and demonstrate reliable, resilient and affordable development to support intra-African and export trade.

As the 2026 National Budget approaches, energy and water investments remain at the forefront of public submissions and economic expectations. Businesses and households alike see infrastructure as the linchpin of higher growth, reduced operating costs and a more resilient economy. Investments in energy and infrastructure would be complimentary to the R1.35 billion of funding announced by the Public Investment Corporation to support early-stage mining opportunities^[2]; and provide a real catalyst for the industry.

Across these shared themes, a unified roadmap emerges. These shared priorities create a unified roadmap for strengthening South Africa’s economic performance and positioning both the mining sector and the broader economy for future resilience.

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^[1] Commodities Outlook for January 2026

^[2] PIC sets aside R1.35 billion to fund early-stage mining projects.pdf