Infrastructure Talks with Roman Koloianov, CEO of Maersk Ukraine

The Infrastructure Talks series is hosted by Dmytro Pavlenko, Partner, Head of Infrastructure Industry Group at Deloitte Ukraine. In this edition, Dmytro speaks with Roman Koloianov, CEO of Maersk Ukraine.

Maersk is one of the world’s largest container shipping companies, with an active presence in the Ukrainian market.

Dmytro Pavlenko: Maersk operates in Ukraine through the ports of Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi. What does your business look like overall today?

Roman Koloianov: The format of our business has changed significantly since the onset of the full-scale war. In the first year, we were unable to operate through Ukrainian ports and had to rely on EU ports to handle our customers’ cargo flows—primarily Gdansk and Constanta. By the end of 2022, we had established a barge service between Constanta and the port of Reni, and in 2024 we resumed navigation to the ports of Greater Odesa, including Chornomorsk. At the same time, the corridor via Gdansk continues to play a critical role. In absolute terms, the business declined sharply at the start of the war; however, we have since recovered to approximately 80% of pre-war volumes. We are grateful for the continued trust our customers place in us for their logistics needs.

Dmytro Pavlenko: The Ukrainian government has announced the launch of the Chornomorsk Port concession. Reportedly, more than 40 leading international port operators and investors have expressed interest. Is Maersk among them?

Roman Koloianov: Yes, I am aware of the concession launch and welcome the initiative. As for participation in the tender, there is interest—this is being handled by APM Terminals, the terminal division of Maersk.

Dmytro Pavlenko: There are differing views on the commercial prospects of this project, given the current overcapacity in the transshipment market. In addition, the state may need to impose strict cargo flow guarantees on the concessionaire. What is your perspective?

Roman Koloianov: You are right about the current overcapacity, but this will not deter a strategic investor with a long-term perspective and a clear understanding of future cargo flows. In my view, a private investor is better positioned to deliver this. However, the investor selection process must be extremely rigorous, particularly regarding ties to an aggressor state. Many large global companies continue to operate in Russia. Allowing such players into the tender would be both a political failure and a reputational risk, given the strategic importance of this asset. Western partners would not accept a scenario where bidders are effectively financing the war through their operations in Russia. I hope the government approaches this decision responsibly.

Dmytro Pavlenko: Are there other projects that could be of interest to Maersk, such as investments in multimodal hubs or dry ports outside the Greater Odesa area?

Roman Koloianov: For several years now, we have positioned ourselves as a “logistics integrator” rather than simply a container shipping line—this reflects a broader shift in our strategic model. Maersk is actively expanding and investing in logistics beyond ocean shipping. Inland logistics and depot infrastructure are key focus areas, and our strong inland network in Ukraine is a clear example of this approach. Investments in multimodal hubs could be of interest, depending on the attractiveness of the specific asset, project, or underlying concept.

Dmytro Pavlenko: Beyond the challenges at Chornomorsk port, global trade itself is under significant pressure. Vincent Clerc, Global CEO of Maersk, recently noted in an interview with Bloomberg that the outlook for global demand in container shipping remains highly uncertain, driven by rapid shifts in trade policy and rising recession risks in the United States. How do you assess the impact of tariff tensions on the global market? And, in light of the emerging conflict involving Iran, is the Ukrainian market already feeling these global fluctuations?

Roman Koloianov: We are operating in a highly turbulent environment—COVID-19, Russia’s war against Ukraine, Red Sea navigation risks, U.S. tariff policies, and ongoing instability in the Middle East. All of this impacts global trade and drives structural changes in logistics. At the same time, logistics systems are inherently inert: reconfiguring transport routes and supply chains requires substantial financial investment, which ultimately translates into higher costs for end consumers. As for the Ukrainian market, the direct impact of U.S. tariffs is minimal due to the relatively low volume of bilateral trade. However, we may experience indirect, operational effects—such as temporary shortages of vessel capacity and cargo delays caused by congestion at major container hubs.

Dmytro Pavlenko: In addition to global tariff shifts, rail freight tariffs in Ukraine may also change. Ukrzaliznytsia has announced plans to index freight rates by 37%. You previously stated at the Ukrainian Transport Forum 2025 that such an increase could effectively halt container transport by rail.

Roman Koloianov: We have been involved in rail container logistics for many years and were, in many ways, pioneers of the model as it exists today, having established its core concept back in 2018. The principle is straightforward: for rail transport to remain viable, it must be more cost-effective than road transport. This is a fundamental logistics axiom.

Today, the cost of rail transport in Ukraine is already comparable to—and on some routes even higher than—road transport. Any further tariff increases will inevitably result in a shift of cargo volumes to road carriers.

This would also have a negative impact on the owners of dry ports, who would face declining cargo volumes and reduced demand for cargo handling services.

Dmytro Pavlenko: Does Maersk have a strategy to mitigate the impact of such significant tariff increase? What level of indexation would be acceptable for the market? Do you have a Plan B if the announced tariffs are implemented?

Roman Koloianov: We operate in a market-driven environment, so we will look for more cost-efficient alternatives to retain our customers—primarily road transport. Under current conditions, the priority should not be tariff indexation, but rather the optimization of rail tariffs to preserve cargo flows.

It is understandable that the railway is facing increased costs due to the war and is seeking to offset them through tariff adjustments. However, this effectively shifts the financial burden of the war onto consumers. Alternative mechanisms for compensation should be considered.

Dmytro Pavlenko: Is the current level of security in the Black Sea sufficient to support an increase in container traffic? What impact does the Black Sea demining agreement, signed by Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey, have?

Roman Koloianov: In practice, navigation is functioning and remains relatively efficient. However, port security continues to be a critical concern. Ports are subject to ongoing drone and missile attacks, which discourages cargo owners from storing goods there and limits the potential for scaling up container traffic.

Dmytro Pavlenko: Does the government provide sufficient support to your industry? What is the current situation with state-backed and commercial war risk insurance?

Roman Koloianov: State-backed war risk insurance is currently available only for vessels calling at Ukrainian ports. Unfortunately, there is no comparable instrument for insuring cargo stored in ports. Commercial insurance options do exist, but they are relatively expensive. Overall, we do not see meaningful state support, as there are neither effective insurance instruments nor compensation mechanisms for foreign companies operating in Ukraine that incur material losses because of the war.

Dmytro Pavlenko: How does the situation on the maritime routes between Israel and Yemen affect container shipping? Today, alternative land routes are being developed, such as corridors from Dubai through Saudi Arabia to ports in Egypt and Israel. Some also point to the Northern Sea Route through the Arctic. How viable are these options for container lines?

Roman Koloianov: The situation in Yemen has had a major impact on container shipping. In practice, container vessels have frequently been targeted by Houthi attacks, forcing carriers to suspend transit through the Red Sea and reroute vessels around Africa. This has substantially increased transit times and raised the cost of shipping between Asia and Europe.

Land alternatives exist but have limited capacity. For example, transporting the cargo of a single mainline container vessel would require approximately 10,000 trucks or around 200 trains—these are enormous logistics volumes.

The Northern Sea Route is also an option, but it involves high operational risks and requires specialized ice-class vessels, which significantly increases transportation costs. As a result, in the near term, I do not see it becoming a viable or regular route for container shipping lines.

Dmytro Pavlenko: What impact is the situation with Iran already having on your business and the market in general?

Roman Koloianov: The situation remains highly unpredictable, but the immediate effects are clear: rising fuel prices, increasing freight costs, and diminishing prospects for restoring Red Sea transit. There are also significant disruptions in the supply of goods to countries across the region. In the longer term, this situation could negatively impact the global economy and lead to a reduction in international trade volumes and transportation flows.

Dmytro Pavlenko: In April last year, Maersk acquired a railway connecting both sides of the Panama Canal. What are the prospects for private operators in freight rail transport in Ukraine, and could your company be among them?

Roman Koloianov: Thank you for the interesting question. This largely depends on government policy, as rail transport remains a state monopoly. Discussions around private traction have been ongoing for many years, but so far they have not moved beyond the conceptual stage. From a business perspective, I support the idea of private rail operations. However, this would require effective mechanisms for independent oversight and regulation to ensure the system functions properly and transparently.

Dmytro Pavlenko: Last year, as part of higher education reform, it was announced that the Odessa National Maritime University (ONMU) and the National University “Odessa Maritime Academy” (OMA) would be merged into the Ukrainian State Maritime Academy. Does maritime education require reform, and if so, what kind?

Roman Koloianov: Education remains a critical challenge. For many years, it has been underfunded and insufficiently prioritized, despite its fundamental role in shaping Ukraine’s future and long-term competitiveness.

As a graduate of Odessa National Maritime University, I can say that current academic programs significantly lag behind industry developments. At the same time, these institutions are unique—they prepare highly specialized professionals for the maritime and logistics sectors, and this capability must be preserved.

Any reform should focus on modernization and stronger alignment with industry needs, while safeguarding core engineering disciplines where there are few or no alternatives in other higher education institutions. A more targeted governance approach—potentially placing these institutions under a specialized ministry—could improve funding efficiency while ensuring access to strong scientific expertise for addressing current challenges and developing applied methodologies and strategies.

Dmytro Pavlenko: We’ve discussed Marc Levinson’s book How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the Global Economy Bigger. It describes in detail how the container was invented and standardized globally. Are similar breakthroughs possible in modern logistics—or container shipping specifically—that could have a similar revolutionary impact? What might the next major book on transport history be about?

Roman Koloianov: This is a highly philosophical question. From the perspective of physical cargo movement, it is difficult to imagine fundamentally new breakthroughs—unless we are talking about something like teleportation. In fact, the real transformation is happening in two key areas: energy sources for transportation and the processing of information flows.

In energy, the industry is steadily shifting toward green solutions, and it is conceivable that a new type of fuel could emerge that fundamentally reshapes the sector. As for information flows, we are already seeing increasing adoption of AI, which is capable of significantly automating both operational and analytical processes. We may even see unmanned vessels, although I do not believe this will happen quickly or at scale, given regulatory constraints and uneven technological maturity across countries.

A separate and highly important dimension is documentation and its transition to digital formats. We can already see how rapidly document services are moving online in Ukraine. However, maritime transport and logistics are inherently cross-border industries, which makes global standardization essential. International protocols for digital transport documents, as well as consensus on their legal recognition and integration into national systems, are still required. It is precisely these challenges that led to the suspension of the TradeLens project, which aimed to build a blockchain-based digital ecosystem for transport documentation and eliminate paper-based processes in international shipping.

Dmytro Pavlenko: Please ask us a question.

Roman Koloianov: How do you see the dynamics of economic growth and the country’s recovery in the post-war period? Which sectors will expand, and which, on the contrary, may decline—and why?

Dmytro Pavlenko: This question deserves a separate Infrastructure Talks session. Briefly, and in the context of our discussion, my view is the following. First and foremost, recovery will be driven by the restoration, diversification, and expansion of supply chains in the interests of national security and reconstruction. This will be shaped by the needs of the military, construction, and energy sectors. It is not only about transportation and delivery, but also about building value-added production, localizing import-dependent industries, and integrating them into new logistics routes. In essence, this is the convergence of production, logistics, and transshipment capacities.

Reconstruction will be financed to a significant extent from external sources, as the current financial system alone will not be able to absorb the scale of demand. This will also create strong momentum for the banking and insurance sectors, among others.

Let’s continue this conversation in the post-war recovery period—long-awaited and, hopefully, not far away.

This interview contains the respondent's direct speech without curtailments, changes, corrections or retouching; it reflects the respondent’s subjective opinion and may not coincide with the position of Deloitte. Deloitte is not responsible for the information provided.

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