“Where is aviation heading?” The future of the skies in Ukraine and worldwide. Infrastructure Talks with airline CEOs and industry experts

Infrastructure Talks are hosted by Dmytro Pavlenko, Partner at Deloitte Ukraine, Head of Infrastructure Industry Group. This episode is dedicated to the Day of Aviation of Ukraine 2025.

Dmytro Pavlenko

Deloitte presented Deloitte Global’s 2025 Airline CEO Survey, which reflects the views of 32 CEOs of the world’s leading airlines on top imperatives defining the future of aviation.

Deloitte brings together the collective wisdom of airline leaders to highlight strategic priorities for the industry’s future. Drawing on insights shared by executives from airlines of various sizes and business models, the report provides a unique perspective on the development of aviation, including its key drivers, and the leadership strategies that propel it forward.

The survey, conducted shortly after the announcement of the new tariffs in early April, was expected to highlight global trade concerns. However, tariffs were only at the margins of executives’ attention. Notably, even familiar aviation industry risks—such as aircraft shortages or fluctuations in fuel prices—did not dominate the discussion. Nor did the pandemic, which once changed the industry. It no longer determines its future either. Instead, the CEOs pointed to broader macro risks: persistent economic uncertainty and geopolitical instability.

This context shapes the industry’s next steps: tighter cost control and improved reliability, combined with a more pragmatic approach to both customer experience and sustainability. These business strategies, along with robust risk management practices, help leaders build resilience in an increasingly unpredictable world.

Airline leaders have to navigate through competing priorities—adopting advanced technologies and strengthening their workforce and corporate culture—to ensure better resilience. From investments in transformative solutions to evolving customer experience, the ideas presented in the report reveal how aviation leaders are working towards delivering long-term success.

The full report is available here: 2025 Airline CEO Survey.

Unfortunately, Ukraine now finds itself at the very epicenter of geopolitical uncertainty brought by the war. While weighing heavily on global aviation, this uncertainty appears killing for Ukrainian aviation. For domestic airline CEOs, the primary challenge is extraordinary—ensuring mere survival, immediately followed by another challenge of restarting operations after this prolonged and devastating war. That is why we invited leading industry experts to comment on our global aviation report, reflecting on both the international and Ukrainian contexts.

Yevhen Khainatsky, CEO of Bees Airline

About the risks of today

The unstable political situation in the world flowing from the Russia’s war against Ukraine has led to the erosion of international law, with many countries and armed groups exploiting this situation. In the last few years alone, we have seen the re-emergence of conflicts that were “frozen” for decades: Syria, the war between Israel and Gaza, Iran’s involvement, the civil conflict in North Sudan, tensions between India and Pakistan, the coup in Libya, a renewed wave of conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, and mounting pressure around Taiwan. The list does not end there, and every escalation brings restrictions on the use of airspace. This results in flight cancellations, detours, and forced adjustments to airlines’ regional development plans. Consequently, long-term strategies are increasingly giving way to situational solutions and short-term planning.

Yevhen Khainatsky

Beyond politics, aviation is facing another challenge—economic dynamics between states. For example, will the rules for increasing taxes proposed by the United States contribute to the development of international air traffic? Will goods transportation between China and the United States grow under the new tariffs, or will Chinese exports shift to other markets?

Aviation develops steadily and predictably only when these disruptive factors are absent—when there are no restrictions on flights or permits. Today, however, it is no longer epidemics like COVID-19 that most affect the industry most, but rather political turbulence and economic “swings” between states and regions.

About flight optimization

Because of constant revisions to long-term plans and route changes, carriers are shifting from a strategy of “rapid expansion into new markets and strengthening the position there” to “consolidating existing destinations and reducing medium- and long-haul networks in favor of shorter routes”. This shift is driven by two factors: reducing the risk of cancellations due to geopolitical crises and lowering operating costs. For example, limiting flight segments to around four hours can significantly reduce expenses. However, this introduces a new risk: decreased flight regularity. Most often, delays arise from the late arrival of previous flights. Shorter flights mean more idle time on the ground and longer turnaround processes at airports. Delays are not always within the airline’s control. Thus, the priority for carriers remains ensuring both economic efficiency of aircraft operation and high regularity of flights, since reliability is directly linked to customer trust.

About service and customer focus

An airline is considered customer-oriented when flight regularity reaches at least 93–95%. To achieve this, several conditions are essential: highly motivated and professional staff, ongoing training programs, efficient cooperation with ground services (especially in non-standard situations), signed SLAs to minimize delays. One of the major challenges facing staff is to quickly respond to new conditions dictated by the market: restrictions on certain routes, reduced flight frequencies, or schedule changes. To avoid downtime of aircraft and personnel, airlines must be able to refocus their resources rapidly. During COVID-19, the only carriers that survived were those that managed to quickly and efficiently rebuild their business models—shifting from regular flights to charters, from charters to evacuation flights, then converting pax cabins for cargo use, before eventually returning to passenger flights. This flexibility helped them preserve capacity, teams, market position, and customer loyalty. In addition to flight regularity, customer orientation is demonstrated by how easily passengers can interact with the company: effective feedback channels and prompt issue resolution. The customer journey begins with booking, which is why maintaining a high level of digitalization—from ticket purchase to flight completion—is a top priority.

About information processing

Analytics is critical for future development. Accurate forecasts are impossible without robust data processing—both for the company’s operation in future periods and for its overall development. Whereas information was gathered manually—or often not gathered at all—new technologies now enable airlines to analyze data quickly and efficiently. This saves both significant financial resources and staff time.

About personnel challenges

In addition to all the difficulties already mentioned, Ukraine’s aviation faces another serious challenge—retaining motivated and qualified personnel. During 3.5 years of war, Ukraine has lost a large share of both flight crews (pilots, flight attendants, technicians, air traffic controllers) and ground staff (airport workers, aviation security, managers, etc.). Many have found employment abroad, some have retrained in other professions, while others have lost the validity of their certificates and require requalification. This creates a major problem for Ukraine’s aviation industry, as recovery and recruitment will take years. Furthermore, many young Ukrainians who studied abroad are now choosing to remain in their host countries after graduating from European universities.

Dmytro Sieroukhov, CEO of SkyUp Airlines

Among the key challenges shaping the development of the global aviation industry in 2025, geopolitics remains the most significant factor. While it has only recently become a concern for most international airline executives, it has had an unprecedented impact on Ukrainian carriers since 2022. While other market players are scaling up and opening new routes, the Ukrainian aviation business is fighting to survive and adapt to new realities. The reopening of Ukrainian skies to civil aviation will require comprehensive state support so that the industry can recover quickly and compete with international players. Meanwhile, the growing frequency of military conflicts in different regions makes international aviation increasingly vulnerable. Geopolitical risks, coupled with economic challenges, have become a constant factor in strategic planning. In response, many airlines rely on their business diversification and transformation. We are one of Ukrainian companies that have already completed this journey.

Dmytro Sieroukhov

Due to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, SkyUp™ has radically changed its business model and development strategy. We have passed the key stages: restructuring our operating model, entering new markets through ACMI contracts and charter services, and resuming regular operations—not from Ukraine, but from Moldova, home to one of the nearest airports to our border. By doing so, we transformed into a flexible diversified aviation system and could expand our route network, obtain new licenses, and continue operations even under crisis conditions—an ability that is now more important than ever.

Yet a more local, but no less critical factor for development, is customer interaction and customer experience. As competition between airlines grows, convenient routes and schedules alone are no longer enough. What matters most is a service that builds trust and inspires loyalty. Our customers—passengers, clients, and partners—should see positive experiences as the primary reason for choosing SkyUp. This is why we prioritize creating a service that not only meets but exceeds expectations, making it our key competitive advantage. This strategy already helps us strengthen our position in the highly competitive European market, and once we return to Ukraine—I am sure—it will help us retain loyalty of customers currently flying from foreign airports to visit family, travel for leisure, or conduct business.

Although the war has closed the Ukrainian skies, Ukrainians continue to travel, driving record passenger traffic at nearby airports. For instance, according to Moldova’s Ministry of Infrastructure, passenger traffic has nearly doubled over just two past years and is projected to exceed 5 million passengers in 2025. In the first six months alone, the growth exceeded 49%. Thus, our citizens are driving growth of airports and airlines in neighboring countries, enabling them to increase volumes and raise fares. Meanwhile, Ukrainian aviation industry remains in the opposite position, and without state support and customer loyalty, restarting flights will be extremely difficult.

Another global trend—and for Ukraine, a growing challenge—is the demand for qualified specialists. Worldwide, demand continues to rise, but in Ukraine, there is an outflow of personnel and waning interest in the industry among young people—an understandable outcome given current conditions. Once civil aviation resumes, the industry will urgently need professionals who understand both local realities and global trends. So today, it is especially important to build teams that combine Ukrainian and international expertise, preserving our aviation potential and ensuring a swift return of aircraft to Ukrainian skies in the post-war period.

Overall, global trends reflect both concerns and possible vectors for the development of aviation. In some areas, such as dealing with geopolitical pressures, Ukrainian aviation has gained hard-earned experience earlier than others. In others—like customer service, passenger experience, and specialized workforce training—we will have to catch up. This will be far easier when the state and businesses unite to create mechanisms for supporting and protecting domestic carriers, alongside educational programs to train the next generation of aviation professionals.

Yaroslav Krasnozhon, co-founder of the Vector Helicopter Company, former CEO of Supernova

Despite turbulence and geopolitical storms, 2025 should mark the final recovery of air travel. The number of transported passengers and flights is expected to exceed 2019 figures by 8%. But recovery brings new challenges for airlines: competition is toughening, and growth is taking place amid an increasingly unpredictable environment.

Today, the air transportation industry is undergoing disruptive transformation. In 2025, we all have to admit that airlines are no longer stand-alone businesses capable of consistently generating profit and ensuring a return on investment. This comes as a result of fierce competition and the narrow margin between operational costs and ticket prices that passengers are willing to pay. 

Yaroslav Krasnozhon

Consider Emirates, which operates a fleet of 254 aircraft, including 116 A380s and 120 Boeing 777-300ERs. With the average aircraft valued at, say, $270 million, the entire fleet is worth nearly $69 billion. In 2025, Emirates announced a record profit of $5.8 billion; yet, over the past 10 years (since 2016), its aggregate profits totaled just $9.7 billion—an average of $0.97 billion per year. Relative to the scale of investment, profitability remains modest, making aviation a high-risk industry with limited prospects for investment recovery if viewed in isolation.

As a result, airlines are increasingly integrated into larger businesses, functioning as generators of cash flow that both enables other businesses to gain revenues and supports the airlines’ operations.

This has shaped a strategic approach adopted by airlines: to integrate as fully as possible with other businesses while continuously improving their own efficiency. Simple cost-cutting is no longer sufficient—airlines must meet increasingly stringent safety and environmental requirements, which entails additional investment. At the same time, they must continuously live up to the evolving passenger expectations to maintain demand for their services.

Thus, the aviation industry is facing a crisis in its business fundamentals combined with an unstable external environment, where even the best forecasts cannot safeguard from risks—and these risks are actively materializing. This looks like a near-perfect storm. For Ukrainian carriers, the situation is even more challenging: the airspace has been closed for 3.5 years, and flights are operated from other countries where it is impossible to obtain long-term route licenses. This restricts the carriers’ planning horizon to just six months—far too short for strategic planning in the aviation industry.

How can airlines overcome these challenges?

1. Airlines need to find a clear strategic purpose for their existence. In practice, this means creating tangible value for the broader business ecosystem they operate in—either by ensuring a stable flow of tourists at predictable prices and quality, or by serving as a base carrier that generates up to 80% of an airport’s traffic, with the remaining 20% contributed by other airlines that drive the airport’s profit.
2. The efficient use of funds should take precedence over mere cost-cutting. Thus, airlines must seize favorable moments to upgrade their fleets with more productive aircraft or, conversely, delay adopting new technologies if they are still “raw”. A clear example is the PW1500G engine issue: carriers operating A320s with older engines managed to generate significant profits through wet lease contracts, while those that rushed to upgrade are still struggling with costly engine maintenance challenges.
3. AI has already emerged as a powerful force with the potential to fundamentally transform the aviation industry. It enables airlines to factor in a wider range of variables when planning routes and forecasting revenues, while also enhancing the training of flight crews and engineering staff. Ultimately, artificial intelligence will make it possible for airlines to fully implement predictive maintenance—replacing components before failures occur—which will significantly boost both reliability and flight regularity.
4. The human factor has become the most vulnerable element of the entire system. Sadly, recent air crashes and major incidents have been caused by human error. AI and augmented reality may provide the needed safeguards.
5. The above brings us to the next point. With humans now being the most critical point of vulnerability, we need to focus more on how we recruit, prepare, and support our staff. The Germanwings and PIA tragedies are a stark reminder that measuring productivity alone is no longer enough. We must make sure that our staff is in adequate psychological state by timely identifying fatigue or other issues and providing support. The workplace should be a safe environment for employees, not an arena of constant competition. It’s not about lowering standards—it’s about applying them in responsibly.
6. Aviation is turning into a standard mode of transport. Today, airlines are expected to ensure convenience at every point of passenger journey. However, we have to finally realize, that the era of contact centers is now a thing of the past, as passengers want to manage services online via an app, 24/7. In this context, artificial intelligence has arrived at the right time.
7. Airlines that are the first to refocus from merely reducing emissions to evaluating environmental impact across a product’s lifecycle will gain a significant competitive advantage. This approach enables them to concentrate on the most critical factors harming the environment. And, once again, artificial intelligence steps in to help in developing sustainability programs.

In summary, we are entering a new technological world where simple calculating economic efficiency doesn’t cut it anymore. Airlines need to rethink their role, define the strategic purpose of their existence within the broader business ecosystem, and develop a new strategy based on this foundation.

This interview contains the respondent's direct speech without curtailments, changes, corrections or retouching; it reflects the respondent’s subjective opinion and may not coincide with the position of Deloitte. Deloitte is not responsible for the information provided.

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