Thailand’s 2026 Economic Outlook: The Year of Decision

Entering the Year of the Horse amidst rapid technological advancements, the question arises: what role will Artificial Intelligence (AI) play in shaping the Thai economy in 2026? This economy faces challenges on various sides, with many institutions predicting that the likelihood of GDP growth exceeding 2% in 2026 has decreased significantly. The Bank of Thailand forecasts GDP growth for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 2.2%, 1.5%, and 2.3%, respectively.
 

Challenges Pressuring the Thai Economy

The Thai economy in 2025 continues to face several significant pressures which hinder growth, including:

• High household debt: The Bank of Thailand indicates that although the seasonally adjusted household debt-to-GDP ratio has gradually decreased from the beginning of 2024 until the second quarter of 2025 which marked at 87%. However, nearly 30% still consists of non-productive loans, such as those for other personal consumption. The high debt burden continues to limit purchasing power and domestic consumption.
• Uneven Tourism Recovery: According to the World Bank, the tourism sector accounts for approximately 20% of Thailand's GDP. While tourism has begun to recover, data from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports shows that the number of monthly foreign tourists from February to November 2025 was lower than in the same months of 2024. Furthermore, the cumulative number of foreign tourists from January to November 2025 contracted by nearly 8% year-on-year. Chinese tourist arrivals declined by more than a third, although Indian tourist arrivals increased by over 16%. However, recovery remains uncertain and protracted.
• Global economic slowdown: Reduced demand for goods and services from global markets is impacting the export sector, which accounts for almost 60% of Thailand's GDP.
• Geopolitical uncertainty and natural disasters: Unstable global and domestic conditions persist as risk factors requiring monitoring across sectors.

Dr. Narain Chutijirawong, Executive Director of Growth at Deloitte Thailand further noted that despite export growth, data from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that Thailand's export value in the first ten months of 2025 increased by 13% year-on-year. Industrial products accounted for the largest share, over 81%, or approximately 7.6 trillion baht, with the United States being the largest recipient, accounting for over 23%. Agricultural products followed, at over 8%, or approximately 780 billion baht, with China being the largest recipient, accounting for over 39%. However, the momentum in the coming year may slow due to exporters front-loading their shipments to avoid the impact of US tariffs.

Tasada Sangmanacharoen, Assistant Manager of Growth at Deloitte Thailand further stated that the manufacturing sector is not expanding in line with the export sector. The average Industrial Production Index (MPI) for January to October 2025 contracted by 1% year-on-year. Furthermore, the Office of Industrial Economics forecasts that the MPI for 2025 may contract by 0.75%, while it may expand by 1–2% in 2026. Concerns persist, however, regarding imports of cheaper foreign goods, particularly electrical appliances. In addition, the capacity utilisation rate (CapU) continues to decline. The average seasonally adjusted index of CapU for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was approximately 64%, 60%, and 59%, respectively. The average of this CapU for January to October 2025 is approaching 59%.
 

AI and Thai Businesses in 2026: 

From Intention to Execution - artificial intelligence is increasingly part of boardroom discussions—but for most organisations, the real challenge lies not in adopting AI, but in turning interest into practical business outcomes.

AI is often associated with efficiency gains, faster decision-making, and improved customer experience. Yet in practice, many Thai companies remain cautious. According to the Deloitte Thailand Digital Transformation Survey 2025, fewer than 20% of organisations have fully implemented AI, while a large majority are still in the planning or pilot stage. This suggests that AI, for now, is more of an operational consideration than a core economic driver.

Although data from We Are Social shows that Thais visit ChatGPT websites nearly 41 million times per month, reflecting consumer awareness and acceptance of the technology, for business leaders, the implication is clear, competitive advantage will not come from experimenting with AI tools alone, but from embedding them into existing processes. The next phase requires clearer use cases tied to business value—such as improving frontline productivity, enhancing risk management, or supporting managerial decision-making—rather than broad “AI transformation” initiatives.

Another practical constraint is talent readiness. Skills gaps, especially in data literacy and AI governance, continue to slow progress. Instead of fearing large-scale job replacement, organisations should focus on targeted upskilling and redefining roles where humans and technology work together.

Deloitte outlines the key business challenges for 2026 as follows:

• Operational Excellence Pressures: Amid pressures in cost and resource management with limited availability, businesses should clearly convey to employees the value delivered to customers. This promotes greater understanding and enables more efficient, rapid management, resulting in sustainable cost reductions exceeding those from initial cost-cutting measures.
• External Uncertainties: Volatile externalities—such as geopolitical challenges, wars, natural disasters, and U.S. tax policies—require businesses to adapt for continuity. They must prioritize supply chains, competitiveness, and scenario modeling for financial and operational resilience.
• AI Reality Adoption: Shift from experimenting with existing tools to real-world AI application—Many businesses fail to apply AI due to reliance on legacy processes. Companies must transcend mere “AI trials” by redesigning workflows and implementing robust orchestration frameworks for digital operations, boosting efficiency amid limited revenue growth.

In 2026, AI will not automatically reshape the Thai economy. The real differentiator will be how effectively businesses move from intent to execution, with disciplined investment, workforce readiness, and realistic expectations.