The following is a synopsis taken from the Deloitte Annual Forum held on 24 January 2025.
The economy has done extraordinarily well over the last decade. Over the past decade GDP has grown by 153% and current levels of economic growth are recognised by many as an outstanding achievement.
At the same time whilst the indigenous Maltese population has remained broadly stable at 400,000, the total resident population has increased by 31% to 564,000 and nearly 1 in 3 residents are not Maltese. In recent years 42,000 individuals arrive, whilst 21,000 leave - each year.
As a result, the labour force increased by just over 100,000 to 391,000. EU nationals in employment went up by a factor of x3 to 36,000, whilst Third Country Nationals in employment went up by a factor of x12 to 79,000 and now make up 1 in 4 of the workforce. Population growth has turbo-charged the economy.
On a GDP per capita basis, the position is more nuanced and the growth per person stands at 44% over the last decade. Comparing Malta’ GDP per capita with Cyprus, a fellow EU accession state with a relatively similar economic profile, we find that the gap increased over this period. Cyprus’ GDP per capita was €2,500 higher than Malta’s in 2013 and a decade later is still €3,000 higher per person, whilst their population increased by a modest 8%.
Meanwhile, tourist arrivals have increased from 1.6 million in 2013 to 3.6 million in 2024. The Deloitte Tourism Carrying Capacity study suggests that between 4.0 and 4.4 million annual arrivals will be required to sustain occupancy at 2023 levels in the face of the upcoming bed-stock pipeline.
The Government has put forward Vision 2050 as an exercise that requires national consensus where the needs and aspirations of the country as a whole are at the forefront. Its frame of mind is one of confidence and strength in that we should now be able to choose the types of jobs, investment and tourists that we seek. At the Deloitte Annual Forum, held on 24 January, I had the pleasure of moderating a lively panel on this topic.
Whilst on the panel, Norman Aquilina pointed out that for such a 25-year plan to work it needs to be a national vision with a national sense of ownership and a plan of how to get there, translating ideas into policy and policy into reality. There was consensus on the panel that our vision now needs to look beyond growth and that we need to look at the challenges ahead that take into account our sustainable competitiveness, capabilities, skills shortages and measures of wellbeing.
During the panel and in her preceding keynote address Prof Marie Briguglio invited those present to think more broadly about other measures of economic success, pointing out that GDP growth alone does not necessarily lead to more sustainability, social justice or wellbeing. She pointed out that Malta fares badly in international studies on some wellbeing measures and that we seem to feel disproportionately more stressed, worried and anxious than our economic wealth would suggest. The distribution of GDP must also be taken into account. Notwithstanding Malta’s obvious economic success at a headline level, Malta has 48,968 individuals who are ‘materially deprived’ and 159,485 individuals who cannot afford to go on holiday away from home for one week a year. We should strive to do better and not leave others behind in our narrow pursuit of prosperity for some.
From an educational perspective, educationalist Bernie Mizzi spoke passionately about the need to have the courage to first consider the broader challenges brought on by society’s changing pace. She spoke about the concepts of depthlessness and breathlessness as the pace of life does not allow profundity to flourish when style and surface thinking drive the agenda rather than clarity of what we really want. Malta’s PISA results indicate some immediate challenges and necessary areas of focus in upskilling our students and ultimately our workforce. However, we must also look at critical thinking, creativity and address the current tendency for inattentiveness when shaping our educational vision.
An earlier Sustainable Development Vision 2050 publication by Government had pointed out that ‘with no change in the current transport policy and no additional transport measures being implemented, congestion will cost the Maltese economy over Eur128 million per annum in 2050, equating to an annual loss of 8.2% of Malta’s GDP’. With over 100,000 more cars on the road since 2013 and traffic jams everywhere, doing nothing differently will not work in the long term. Architect & Engineer Dr Konrad Xuereb discussed the case for a Malta metro, as his studies show that with the current population and modest levels of usage by residents and tourists, such a major and game-changing infrastructural project would be viable, with the main phase completed within 5 years. Complemented by local bus routes, cycling and other active transport measures, this would form a trunk and branch network throughout the densely populated areas of Malta and, in time, extend to a fixed link to Gozo. Other infrastructural projects to join communities and encourage walking and cycling would also be included. By way of an example, Konrad’ s proposal for a pedestrian/cycle bridge from Tigne Point to Valletta may seem bold and radical, but is similar in length to the Millennium Bridge crossing the River Thames in London.
Roberta Metsola’s address on predictability, stability and prosperity encouraged the business leaders present of the need to abandon political tribalism to focus on the bigger picture whilst carrying out self-critical analysis and having the courage to change course where needed. Now is the time for strategic thinking leading to strategic planning, analysis and stress-tests leading to implementation plans towards bold transformations and prosperity for all.
As the debate concluded, delegates at the Deloitte Annual Forum were asked to name the top areas of focus that they wished to see in Vision 2050. Responses showed that wellbeing, fairness, value-added, migration, governance, technology and infrastructure are all top of mind.