MEcon | April 2025 Edition

Saudi Arabia

The IMF reduced Saudi Arabia’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.3%, citing slower oil production normalization. April oil prices below USD 65/barrel present fiscal challenges given Saudi Arabia’s USD 90/barrel breakeven requirement, prompting a planned 35.2% increase in Chinese oil exports for May. Furthermore, Vision 2030 tracking indicates that 93% of KPIs are meeting targets.

United Arab Emirates

New US tariffs may impact UAE aluminum exports. The UAE’s expanding Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) program offers strategic trade diversification that supports post-oil economic objectives. Meanwhile, continued government initiatives in healthcare and wellbeing improvements, coupled with the encouragement of digital solutions, underscore the UAE’s focus on advancing social outcomes and enhancing residents’ living conditions.

Qatar

Qatar's non-energy PMI reached 52.0 in March 2025, indicating sustained private sector expansion driven by demand growth and positive business sentiment. While Qatar’s Asia-focused export profile limits direct US tariff exposure, potential indirect effects through global trade realignment may influence future trading partner composition. Additionally, the Qatar Investment Authority increased its allocation to Chinese and Egyptian markets ahead of President Trump’s upcoming visit, reflecting the country's strategic expansion of its international investment footprint.

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