East Africa economic outlook 2025

East African economies: Key takeaways

The 2025 East Africa economic outlook dives deep into macroeconomic indicators like growth-rate forecasts or estimates and key risks for five major geographies in the region: Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia.

• Ethiopia: Strong gross domestic product growth (7.2%) is expected, despite falling from an estimated 8.1% in 2024, driven by investments in mining, agriculture, and energy. However, key risks remain, especially from potential political instability and inflationary pressures.
• Kenya: Economic momentum is supported by agricultural recovery, tourism, and investment reforms, but high public debt and vulnerability to climate shocks pose significant risks. The economy is expected to grow by 5.3% in 2025 from an estimated 4.7% in 2024.
• Tanzania: Sustained economic growth is fueled by infrastructure and energy projects, but depreciation of the Tanzanian shilling and rising import costs could challenge the country’s economic stability. GDP growth accelerated to 5.6% in 2024, compared with 5.1% in 2023.
• Uganda: Accelerated growth from oil sector investments and regional trade is anticipated, though delays in oil production and external debt vulnerabilities remain key risks. The economy grew 6.1% in 2024 compared with 5.3% growth in 2023.
• Zambia: Economic resilience is bolstered by strong performance in agriculture, a rebound in the mining sector, and progress in debt-restructuring processes. However, persistent inflation and currency volatility remain key concerns. The country’s GDP growth decelerated to 4% in 2024 from 5.4% in 2023, in line with the Sub-Saharan average.

For detailed analysis by country, refer to the full report here.