Tariffs, chaos, and uncertainty

The introduction of a 30% tariff on imports of selected products from the EU, announced this month by the administration of US President Donald Trump, represents a further disruption to the global trading system. This time, however, it is not a matter of rhetorical threats or temporary measures. The EU has so far reacted cautiously to this move, and the markets are surprisingly calm. However, their reaction does not reflect stability, but rather cynicism — investors have become accustomed to change. It is this uncertainty that has a worse impact on companies than the tariffs themselves.

From an economic point of view, volatility is worse than temporary disadvantage. Export companies have to secure contracts for several different scenarios, recalculate prices, change the flow of goods, and respond to ad hoc decisions by politicians. The costs of administration, legal services, and logistics redirection are rising, as are internal management costs. Companies are limiting investments, postponing expansion, and preferring to build larger liquid reserves rather than long-term capacity. The result is lower productivity growth and erosion of confidence.

Although it may seem that markets have already absorbed similar fluctuations, in reality the economic environment is entering a phase of chronic adaptation. Companies are not trying to adapt to the rules, but merely to survive amid their constant changes. This completely changes the motivation and behavior of the players: instead of innovation, there is opportunism; instead of expansion, there is decline. European exporters are losing competitiveness, not because of their inability, but because of the absence of a predictable framework.

This presents a clear challenge for European businesses and politicians: not to react defensively, but to create a stable strategy. Investment in predictive flexibility — both geographical and production-related — is key. European restraint towards US tariffs may not be a sign of weakness, but rather an attempt to prevent a spiral of retaliation that would affect both sides of the Atlantic. Unlike China, which often responds harshly and immediately, the EU relies on the strength of rules, diplomatic channels, and the economic weight of the whole. However, this approach must be complemented by real tools — from support for hedging to structural aid for the most vulnerable companies. Otherwise, there is a risk that strategic patience will be perceived as passivity, and Europe will remain an observer while the rules of global trade change without its influence.