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Scenario plan to determine decisions to make today or defer

Command Centre | Respond: Prepare for and manage continuity

Using Scenario Based Forecasting

Preparedness in an uncertain environment

COVID-19, oil price shocks and travel bans are all creating uncertainty regarding the current business environment. And as the impact of COVID-19 becomes more permanent, it is important that businesses are proactive in assessing their capability to withstand disruption and the options they have to identify and respond to, potential opportunities. This article discusses the role scenario-based forecasting can play in navigating company finances through this level of uncertainty and disruption.

Topics covered in this article:

  • Creating a core team that develops and manages scenario definitions and reforecasting
  • Defining plausible alternate futures in which the impact of decisions will be assessed
  • Customising senarios to particular contexts and challenges, including less obvious possibilities

Using economics to understand the impact of COVID-19

Assessing how the crisis may unfold

Notwithstanding the UN trade agency estimates that COVID-19 is likely to cost the global economy $1 trillion during 2020, it is difficult to assess at this stage what the actual economic impact might be. There is, however, a demand for comment on the current economic impact of the outbreak and expectations for the future at a macro level as well as at the level of individual organisations. This article discusses the larger economic questions companies should be considering and what economic capabilities they can use to answer them.

Topics covered in this article:

  • Economic questions that need to be top of mind for organisations, such as what scenarios are there for future growth, how will the crisis impact global supply chains and what kinds of government interventions can help the economy.
  • What kinds of economic tools companies can use to assess how the crisis may unfold, including scenario planning and historical data and patterns.
  • The role fiscal and monetary policies can play in economic recovery.

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