Scenarios for resilient leaders in a post-COVID-19 world
Uncertainties related to COVID-19 make it difficult to predict the future for property and casualty (P&C) insurance leaders. These scenarios explore how the US property and casualty insurance industry landscape may develop over the next one to three years to help spark insight and spot future opportunity.
In the wake of COVID-19, Deloitte and Salesforce hosted a dialogue among some of the world's best-known scenario thinkers to consider the societal and business impact of the pandemic. The results of this collaboration can be found in The world remade: Scenarios for resilient leaders.
The P&C insurance industry remade
Humanity is facing a crisis unlike any known to our generation—and as a result, insurers must prepare for an uncertain future. We explore how the insurance sector might evolve over the next one to three years in our latest perspective so you can:
Understand how trends we see during the pandemic could shape what insurance may look like in the medium term.
Have productive conversations around the lasting implications and impacts of the crisis.
Identify decisions and actions that will improve resilience in this rapidly changing landscape.
Move beyond responding to the crisis and towards recovering in the near term.
Deloitte’s Resilient Leadership framework defines three time frames of the crisis.
Four COVID-19 property and casualty insurance scenarios
The current crisis could unfold in four ways over the next one to three years.
Five critical uncertainties will drive the overall impact of COVID-19:
The overall severity of the pandemic and pattern of disease progression.
The level of collaboration within and between countries.
The health care system response to the crisis.
The economic consequences of the crisis.
The level of social cohesion in response to the crisis.
The passing storm
The pandemic is managed due to effective responses from governments and health providers.
Lasting economic repercussions, which disproportionately affect small and midsized businesses and lower- and middle-income individuals and communities.
Property and casualty industry impact
Strong regulatory and policy response helps prevent structural industry damage.
Most insurers weather the storm due to both strong capital reserves, quick revert of customer expectations, and a hard rate environment.
Market consolidation slightly above the precrisis rate as a few small or mid-tier insurers realize they lack resources to invest as required.