Navigating the unknowns
Drivers and projections for EV battery recycling
With the global transition to electric vehicles accelerating, concerns are growing over the substantial demand for minerals required for battery production. In this paper, written in collaboration with the Global Battery Alliance (GBA), we explore the future availability of the minerals, focusing on recycling as a means to address scarcity, environmental concerns, and EU regulatory targets.
Drivers and projections for EV battery recycling
Challenges and opportunities
Electric vehicle adoption has led to the demand for lithium to soar. Approximately 60% of its global demand in 2022 was attributed to EV batteries, a substantial increase from 15% in 2017. Other minerals are affected too, raising concerns about scarcity and the environmental impacts at the extraction and end-of-life stages.
With our paper, we aim to provide a high-level overview of the main drivers of EV battery recycling markets to enable policy makers and market actors across the battery value chain to plan for today and tomorrow.
Key findings:
- The main feedstock for battery recycling will evolve from manufacturing scrap to end-of-first-life batteries by the end of the decade.
- Investment in recycling capacity will have to accelerate to address the potential deficits of recycled cobalt, lithium, and nickel content in 2036.
- A longer average battery lifespan, mainly due to either increased reuse potential or development of LFP battery chemistry, might significantly reduce the availability of recycled materials.
- Exports of batteries, either in second-hand cars or for recycling elsewhere, might have a negative impact on recycled material self-sufficiency in Europe.
- The EU targets for recycled content in batteries are ambitious, but they can be achieved if policy makers create the right framework and companies accelerate their investment in recycling capacity.
The research methodology combines semi-structured interviews, literature review, expert knowledge, and proprietary data models, resulting in preliminary projections of recycling needs and available recycled minerals in the coming decades.
