Business Outlook

Five-to-ten year forecast for business planners

Successful business planning requires analytical thinking and a detailed understanding of the economic forces shaping the Australian business environment.

Deloitte Access Economics produces a quarterly publication, Business Outlook, delivers Australia’s most sophisticated economic commentary and forecasts on the Australian business environment and economic outlook. Our insights cover a detailed assessment of the Australian national economy, 19 industry sectors, and each of the Australian States and Territories.

It provides facts, figures and forecasts on Australian and world growth prospects, Australian interest rates and exchange rates, wages and prices, exports and imports, jobs and unemployment, taxes and public sector spending.  Our Business Outlook forecasts and analysis reports on the Australian market help commercial businesses and government policy decision makers strengthen and enhance your strategic planning capacity

Armed with this critical guidance, you’ll be better positioned to make informed business, planning decisions and risk assessments, and take advantage of emerging economic trends.

Key Benefits

Expert analysis to help you understand how changes can impact strategic planning and investment decisions for the Australian economic outlook.

• Ten-year detailed forecast data to support detailed financial forecasts in your own business
• Insight into Australian and world economic growth prospects, enabling you to strengthen and enhance risk assessment around key business decisions.

Summary of our Business Outlook June 2024 press release

Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook: A fork in the road

Should rates stay on hold, the narrative of a strengthening Australian economy through the second half of 2024 would remain intact.

Releasing the June 2024 edition of the flagship Business Outlook report, Deloitte Access Economics Partner and report lead author, Stephen Smith said: “The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has stared down less-than-perfect inflation numbers in recent months against a backdrop of weak growth. As a result, the handful of weeks from late July until early September 2024 represent a fork in the road for the Australian economy and economic policymakers”.

June quarter inflation data is due in late July, while June quarter economic growth will be released in early September – and these two data points bookend a critical August meeting of the Reserve Bank Board and the July labour force release.

On the back of these events, two clear alternatives are possible, and each would set very different trajectories for the economy over the year ahead.

Down one road, a high June quarter trimmed mean inflation result could force the hand of the RBA to lift interest rates once more in early August, further crushing household and business confidence and wiping out the benefits of tax cuts and real wage gains in the second half of 2024.

Down the other road, the June quarter inflation result may be more benign, consistent with the slower pace of growth in the Australian economy. That would see the RBA hold interest rates steady again next month, enabling households to lead a steady recovery in economic growth in 2024-25.

Deloitte Access Economics’ forecasts most closely resemble the second road and include the view that interest rates neither will nor should increase from current levels. That has been our consistent view for some time, for several reasons.

First, interest rates at their current level are restrictive. Second, inflation is retreating back towards the target, albeit not as quicky as might have been hoped. Third, further interest rate increases are unlikely to temper price growth any more meaningfully than would otherwise be the case. 

And finally, the surge of post-pandemic inflation hit Australia later than it hit other economies, and has therefore cooled earlier elsewhere as well. 

Smith added: “Any further increase in interest rates cannot be justified, and would just pull the rug out from under a cautious economic recovery. Should rates stay on hold, the narrative of a strengthening Australian economy through the second half of 2024 would remain intact.”

Read the full press report release - June 2024

Access the Business Outlook June 2024 Executive Summary

Pricing

Annual Subscription (4 reports)

• Business Outlook Report with Data Files - $3,499 Buy
• Business Outlook Report Only - $2,499 Buy

One-off purchase - (Access to the latest release only)

• Business Outlook Report with Data Files - $1,749 Buy
• Business Outlook Report Only - $1,249 Buy

For further information (publications):
T: +61 3 9667 5070
E: daesubscriptions@deloitte.com.au

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