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WA Index

Issue 229 | October 2024

Welcome to the 229th edition of the Deloitte WA Index, a monthly review of Western Australian stocks and indices.

The aggregate market capitalisation of Western Australian listed companies rallied strongly on the back of commodity prices, up 4.1% during the month of September to close at $360.3 billion.

More broadly, US markets reaped the benefits of the large 50bp interest rate cut – with the S&P 500 index up 2.0%. The Australian All Ordinaries was up 2.7% for the month, while Japanese and UK markets were both down 1.9% and 1.7% respectively – having already benefitted from their own rate adjustments in previous months. 

In September 2024, China’s government announced its largest stimulus since the COVID-19 pandemic, aiming to revive the Chinese real estate sector and boost investment through permission of enhanced leveraging for commercial banks by reducing the required cash reserves needed on hand. 

This triggered a rise in key metal prices, especially iron ore and base metals, which surged globally. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut interest rates and eased mortgage terms, injecting around 1 trillion yuan ($141.7bn) into the market. Equity markets embraced the positive news as a sign that this may be the start of broader stimulus measures that could be announced in the coming months.

Download the list of WA’s top 100 listed companies, as of 30 September 2024, explore the sections below, and if you do not currently receive our WA Index, please register to be added to our distribution list.

Commodity review

Iron ore was the main beneficiary of the Chinese stimulus announced, rising 8.4% to close at US$110/t. The commodity has been under pressure in recent months, on fears of a Chinese slowdown and pessimistic projections from steel refiners. However, September’s stimulus measures provided a newfound bullishness in prospective Chinese property sector growth. 

Aluminium prices rose by 7.6% in September, reaching US$2,609 per tonne, primarily driven by stimulus measures from China. The world's largest aluminium producer, China, ramped up output to record levels, but weak domestic demand, particularly in the construction and manufacturing sectors, has led to a surplus. This oversupply drove an increase in exports of semi-manufactured aluminium products, intensifying trade tensions. Western countries, including the United States, accuse China of unfairly subsidizing its aluminium industry, leading to global market distortions. The U.S. has imposed several anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminium and is considering raising tariffs on aluminium imports to 25%. Similarly, Canada plans to impose a 25% surtax on Chinese aluminium and steel imports beginning in mid-October 2024.

Copper prices increased 6% closing at US$9,692 per tonne for the month of September, with prices reacting positively to the news of stimulus from China and the US rate cuts.

Gold prices saw a 5% upward movement in the month of September closing at US$2,630 per ounce. Gold has been on a strong rise since February, its price further buoyed by continued geopolitical tensions across the middle east, and uncertainty in American politics. Gold hit a new price high at US$2,670/oz in the month. 

LME Nickel prices increased 4% to US$17,266 per tonne in September. Prices continued to be supported by contracting global supply – with operations curtailed around the globe – including locally here in Western Australia as well as in Indonesia. US government grants for battery manufacturing in September will likely continue to facilitate the use of nickel beyond its traditional alloy purpose. The metals use in steel production meant it followed the gains of iron ore post-announcement of Chinese stimulus.

LNG prices fell 6.9% to US$13 per MMBtu, primarily due to the increased production and oversupply from major exporting countries. Despite rising demand in Asia’s industrial sector, the global gas demand remains fragile. Geopolitical tensions, including Russia's ongoing attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and the near halt of LNG trade across the Red Sea, have contributed to market volatility. These factors are exacerbating supply chain disruptions, adding to the instability in LNG prices.

Crude oil prices fell by 8.8% in September, closing at US$73 per barrel. This decline was driven by the uncertainty surrounding OPEC’s, and in particular Saudi Arabia’s, strategy for reintroducing supply to the market alongside weak demand signals from major oil- importing countries, such as China. However, OPEC's plans to bring production back have raised concerns over potential oversupply, contributing to downward pressure on prices. 

Performance of WA Index and Global indices

Top 20 performers of the month: 

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX:MIN) saw its market capitalisation increase 29.6% over September, bolstered by the finalisation of the $1.3b sale of 49% of the Onslow Iron haul road to Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners (MSIP). As part of the deal Mineral Resources received $1.1b in upfront cash from MSIP with an additional $200m to be paid if Onslow Iron produces wet metric tonnage of 35mtpa by June 2026. This news comes off the back of Mineral Resources announcing project completion of transformational gas pipelines to the Onslow Iron project, helping reduce the mines dependence of diesel fuel. Iron ore prices rose late in the month, easing some concerns regarding Mineral Resources’ debt levels with the news from China driving a 13% increase on the day.

Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX:SFR) saw its market capitalisation climb 25.6% over the month of September on the back of a broad and strong rally in copper stocks after China’s stimulus package announcement. September performance was further boosted by management providing a promising update on exploration in Portugal, outlining potential for a “significant mineralised system as Sesmarias”, and encouraging signs at the Iberian Pyrite Belt.

South32 Ltd (ASX:S32) saw its market capitalisation grow 20% during September, the growth comes off the back of strong sector wider performance with prices reacting positively across the board to the news of stimulus from China. South32’s price was further bolstered by news from America with the Biden administration issuing grants for high purity manganese sulphate (HPMSM) projects in the United States, as the US attempts to establish a foothold in the battery supply chain. South32’s Hermosa project was awarded a grant of up to US$166m from the US Department of Energy for the development of commercial scale battery grade manganese production facilities.

The Top 100 performers of this month were:

Chalice Mining Limited (ASX: CHN) saw a notable 40.6% rise in market capitalisation during September 2024, driven by key development at its Gonneville project, part of the Julimar Nickel-Copper- PGM (platinum group metals) discovery in Western Australia. A rise in investor confidence was bolstered by the Western Australia government’s classification of the Gonneville project as strategic, allowing for quicker permitting of the project. In addition, the company has expanded exploration opportunities in gold and copper. 

Bannerman Energy Ltd (ASX: BMN) experienced a 36.5% surge in market capitalisation in September 2024, driven by strong uranium market conditions and key developments at its Etango Uranium Project in Namibia. The growing global demand for nuclear energy as a clean and reliable power source contributed to rising uranium prices, significantly boosting investor confidence. The company advanced its Etango Project by completing critical early construction works and key milestones, such as the Front- End Engineering and Design (FEED) and major equipment orders. The project is working towards a final investment decision, expected in 2025.

Tribune Resources Ltd (ASX: TBR) experienced a 31.8% growth in market capitalisation during September 2024, largely driven by positive developments in its gold mining operations at the East Kundana Joint Venture (EKJV) in Western Australia. The company benefited from increased production levels which combined with a favorable gold price environment, further elevated market value. 

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