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Carbon Market Model

Navigate uncertainty in the evolving carbon market.

Data-driven insight and projections for carbon market analysis and strategy development.

Overview

As we transition to a net zero economy, a decoupling of economic activity from greenhouse gas emissions is necessary for Australia. Updated Australian legislation requires major emitters to lower their carbon footprint, with any baseline exceedance satisfied by a carbon offset.

Various forecasts indicate Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) prices are likely to double in the coming decade. While ACCUs are carbon offsets, they are also financial products and are covered by Australian Financial Services License obligations. Organisations that fail to plan may be hit with a hefty cost to offset, while businesses that plan ahead can reap the rewards from being ahead of the market.

Deloitte’s Carbon Market Model (CMM) provides insight and projections for carbon market analysis and strategy development. 

We can help with:

• Strategy to manage your safeguard liability or meet voluntary targets,

• Entering the ACCU market as either a buyer, investor or seller,

• Due diligence on contracting and investing options, 

• Valuing ACCU holdings and revenue streams,• Understanding policy implications on ACCU market, and

• Evaluating risk associated with ACCU portfolio.

Features

ACCU Supply Engine Modelling

Stratifies the supply market from the bottom-up and tracks ACCU stock across methods and vintage providing capability to assess market conditions and trends with precision.

Price Analysis

Understand underlying cost and price dynamics for a detailed price analysis of Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs). Understand the nuances of different methods and/or project price differentials across years

Tailored Strategy Development

Utilise the price analysis to develop procurement strategy by following and tracking the ACCU supply and demand mix over time.

Abatement Analysis

Abatement technology projects cost curves and deployment rates to form a clear picture of regional emissions trajectory and test decarbonisation scenarios with a pragmatic approach to onsite technology uptake.

Variables and Scenario Testing

Test key market variables including: emissions baseline decline rates, safeguard production variable settings, abatement technology costs and uptake rates, land availability, certificate vintage, variations to Carbon Abatement Contract (CAC) exit arrangements, voluntary market growth rates, underlying carbon offset method costs, carbon portfolio configuration.

Measurements and Outputs

ACCU market prices, supply stock availability and price stratification, sectoral emissions trajectory and ACCU demand, carbon portfolio performance, sectoral trade offs and economy wide impacts.

How it works

Do you have a robust carbon strategy to manage your emissions liability?

Manage your transition to net zero by designing your strategy, optimising the portfolio, and managing risks at a lower cost basis effectively.

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