Skip to main content

​​Actuaries playing their role in climate reporting and modelling​

Actuaries are increasingly recognised as playing a critical role in supporting a fair, equitable and orderly transition as strategic advisers who:

  1. Ensure resilience and informed decision-making: Actuaries are essential for evaluating and analysing management actions through modelling (both qualitative and quantitative), ensuring that the insurer's strategies are resilient to climate-related pressures and that pricing of premiums reflects longer-term impacts on customers and the broader economy. 
  2. Mandatory climate reporting obligations: General insurers are required to disclose more information than ever before on the financial impact of climate on business prospects. The resilience of the insurance entities to climate change will be in stark focus and actuaries play a critical role in ensuring that the targets and metrics disclosed are reasonable and supportable.
  3. Future focused: Actuaries can help ensure that climate risk and opportunity considerations are integrated into the entity's future, driving innovation and maintaining the integrity of financial disclosures.

Sensitivity and scenario testing – framework for actuaries.

As the Australian Sustainability Reporting Standards (ASRS) begin to become effective, insurers are required to evolve and develop their modelling processes to incorporate the impacts of varying levels of climate warming. Traditional business planning typically spans 3-5 years for most insurance companies, but with these new standards coming into play, these periods will need to stretch further (short, medium and long term) and incorporate sensitivities and scenarios that consider varying climate warming levels. This extension of modelling prompts an array of questions:

  • What perils are affected by climate change – are they material to the entity? 
  • How are assumptions affected by climate change and how to quantify the impact of warming scenarios in quantitative modelling? 
  • How to translate warming climate scenarios into quantitative metrics that are used to model the impact to entities across the affected income and expense line items? 
  • Does current financial modelling take into consideration the resilience testing across multiple scenarios and sensitivities over required timeframes? 
  • How are transition risks incorporated into the financial modelling?

In this blog, we'll set out a high-level framework for scenario testing under both the ASRS and Corporations Act 2001 requirements and key actuarial considerations for Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) readiness. This framework is as below:

Under AASB S2 (Appendix D, Paragraphs 14 and 18), a disclosure is considered material if “omitting, misstating or obscuring that information could reasonably be expected to influence decisions that primary users of general purpose financial reports make on the basis of those reports” and is described as “an entity-specific aspect of relevance”. While the reporting will largely be driven by finance teams, in insurance entities, actuaries have a key role to play by supporting the process and bringing additional insight. Actuaries will need to collaborate closely with finance, accounting, and sustainability teams when entities set appropriate materiality thresholds. Given that materiality in the context of AASB S2 hinges on information that could influence primary users, actuaries can bring their expertise in quantifying risks and assessing future projections to ensure financial statements provide relevant and decision-useful information.

At a high level, actuaries should develop a framework that incorporates both quantitative and qualitative factors, including the identification of the perils covered by each class of business that will be affected by climate change and the impact of transition risks aligned with the key metrics set out by the entity. By working with other teams, they can also ensure that an entity’s specific risk profile and sustainability goals are considered in the sensitivity and scenario analysis.

[ASRS 2: 10] “An entity shall disclose information that enables users of general purpose financial reports to understand the climate-related risks and opportunities that could reasonably be expected to affect the entity’s prospects.”

In assessing an entity's resilience, it is important to ensure that actuarial functions are actively involved in the assessment across the broader business, particularly in the following areas:

  • Reserving: While outstanding claims liabilities (OCL) may not be heavily impacted by uncertainty relating to climate change, the premium liability (PL) could be more exposed, particularly when contracts have long contract boundaries. 
  • Pricing: Actuaries should develop strategies to ensure premiums remain sustainable and affordable in the long-term considering the market hardening or softening based on the organisation’s strategic approach in navigating the climate risks and opportunities relative to competition. In either case, consideration of profit margins for financial modelling will be required for both physical risks and transition risks. Carbon costs and consequences of not meeting net zero targets should be brought into consideration. 
  • Reinsurance: Actuaries must account for the potential impact of maintaining the same percentage of business with Reinsurers considering the impact of emission-based strategies and impact of risk to be insured in the medium to long term. 
  • Underwriting and product design: In the medium to long term, actuaries should evaluate how products are designed to ensure their sustainability and safeguarding that continued growth or market share is maintained by exploiting opportunities for new products that align with the emission targets set by the insurer. 
  • Investments: Actuaries should consider the impact on investment returns if shifts are made in the investment strategy towards green sectors and how they integrate sustainability risks in their investment decisions that align with emission targets. 
  • Capital requirements and solvency: Determine capital requirements and solvency over the projection horizon considering any climate-related guidance from APRA as it becomes available.

After the climate related risks and opportunities have been identified, the assumptions that correspond with the varying levels of climate warmth needs to be modelled. Actuaries can play a key role in building out a range of sensitivities across affected perils that relate to the chosen levels of climate warming scenarios over the chosen short, medium and long-time horizons – at a minimum the entity would need to model two warming climate scenarios in terms of the regulatory requirements.

The two warming scenarios needs to be calibrated to impacts on the entity, this can be achieved with collaboration with climate scientists and risk management teams in identifying relevant risks and calibrating the quantitative impacts on the financial modelling.

Importantly, actuaries should not be confined to internally developed inputs, assumptions, sensitivities and scenarios. Widely recognised scenarios, such as those provided by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), offer valuable external benchmarks for scenario testing climate-related risks and inputs and assumptions to be used in quantitative modelling.

Challenges to the framework

While this framework provides a structured approach to integrating climate-related risks and opportunities into actuarial functions, the process is not without its challenges and complexities.

  • Changing nature of exposure: As climate change progresses, the types of products sold will evolve, along with shifts in the competitive landscape. Accurately predicting these changes over the long term is nearly impossible, adding uncertainty to future exposure assessments. 
  • Management action: The actions and decisions management might take to navigate climate-related risks are difficult to predict. Even with internal discussions, real-world decisions will depend heavily on the specific circumstances at the time, adding uncertainty to scenario outcomes. 
  • Spurious accuracy: There is a need to balance the complexity of models with their practical use. Since these are long-term projections that extend beyond current practices, adding too much complexity may not necessarily improve predictions and could lead to a false sense of precision. 
  • Uncertainty of future catastrophes and events: Catastrophes are already challenging to model, but projecting catastrophe events over long horizons, where the nature of these events may be unprecedented, is even more difficult. The significant judgment required makes comparability between insurers challenging and modelling costs high. 
  • Modelling the asset side: Traditionally, actuaries focus on liabilities, but under the new standards, opportunities must also be considered. This introduces complexity in modelling areas that are not typically part of the usual business-as-usual practices, such as investment modelling.

It is key for actuaries to form part of the climate risk working groups early on to ensure the related workstreams within the entity are aligned, and the required information for disclosure purposes are planned and built-in in a timely manner.

Did you find this useful?

Thanks for your feedback