Phosphates and the Future of Energy Transition & Global Food Security

Table of Contents

1. Executive Insights
2. Why Phosphates Matter Now: Market Dynamics, Risks, and Outlook
3. North Africa: The World’s Strategic Phosphate Basin
4. Trajectories of the 3 Maghreb Countries
   
   • Morocco: Mature, Integrated Global Leader
   • Tunisia: A Turning Point for a Legacy Producer
   • Algeria: Latent Potential, State-Controlled and Under-Integrated
     
5. Conclusion: North Africa’s Pivotal Role in the Evolving Global Phosphate Value Chain
6. Frequently asked questions

Executive insights

The strategic value of phosphates has shifted from geological abundance to downstream control, policy alignment, and industrial execution. In this context, North Africa is no longer just a resource base, but a differentiated set of industrial and geopolitical platforms.

Phosphates have re-emerged as a strategic commodity at the intersection of global food security, geopolitics, and the energy transition. While global geological availability is ample, economically extractable reserves, processing capacity, and export channels are highly concentrated, creating structural vulnerabilities in fertilizer supply chains. Furthermore, according to IEA, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries now supply almost half the global electric car market compared to only 10% in 2020. Recent price shocks have been driven less by upstream scarcity and more by downstream bottlenecks, trade restrictions, and policy-driven supply management, particularly in China, highlighting phosphates as a geopolitical as much as a geological resource.

North Africa sits at the center of this new nutrient-security landscape. Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia collectively control roughly three quarters of global phosphate reserves yet pursue markedly different industrial trajectories:

• Morocco has translated its resource dominance into a globally integrated, export-oriented phosphate and fertilizer platform, capturing value across mining, processing, customized fertilizers, and emerging energy-transition applications. 
• Tunisia, despite severe operational disruptions since 2011, retains meaningful downstream chemical capacity and is at an inflection point as the State actively reopens the sector to reform, targeted foreign participation, and value-added recovery. 
• Algeria, by contrast, remains a latent resource holder: rich in phosphate rock but structurally under-integrated, with limited fertilizer and phosphoric acid exports despite repeated state-backed industrial ambitions.  

Trade data across phosphate rock, phosphoric acid, and phosphate-based fertilizers underscores a critical lesson for investors: value creation in phosphates increasingly depends on downstream integration, operational reliability, and product sophistication, not reserves alone. Morocco’s dominance in higher-value compound fertilizers contrasts sharply with Tunisia’s volatility and Algeria’s near-absence, despite their substantial resource bases. Price dynamics further reinforce that upstream extraction is not the binding constraint; processing capacity, regulatory predictability, and geopolitical positioning now define competitiveness.

For international investors, and particularly US stakeholders, North Africa presents a differentiated opportunity set rather than a single regional bet. 

• Morocco offers exposure to scale, resilience, and strategic adjacencies tied to low-carbon fertilizers and battery materials. 
• Tunisia represents a high-risk, high-upside turnaround opportunity concentrated in downstream upgrading, environmental solutions, and infrastructure rehabilitation. 
• Algeria remains a long-dated optionality play, where entry is most viable through enabling technologies, advisory roles, or IFI-anchored partnerships rather than capital-intensive development. 

Across all three markets, phosphates are no longer a purely agricultural story but a strategic industrial and geopolitical asset class. 

Why Phosphates Matter Now: Market Dynamics, Risks, and Outlook

Phosphorus is one of three primary macronutrients required for plant growth. It is essential for root development, energy transfer and reproduction and cannot be synthesized or replaced by other elements in agricultural systems. Once soils are depleted of available phosphorus, crop yields decline and cannot be restored at scale without external phosphate inputs, which typically come from mined phosphate rock converted into fertilizers.  

Resources, reserves and mined figures indicate that geological scarcity is not imminent even if economically recoverable reserves are more limited. Morocco alone is credited with 50 billion tons of reserves, representing roughly 70% of global reserves, far ahead of any other country.  

Phosphates have recently re-emerged as a strategic commodity because they sit at the intersection of food security, geopolitics, and energy transition technologies. Fertilizers made from phosphate rock, primarily DAP and TSP, are indispensable for global crop yields, and there is no synthetic substitute for phosphate nutrients. Between 2021 and 2023, global phosphate fertilizer prices rose sharply as energy costs spiked, supply chains were disrupted, and major exporting countries tightened their controls. These disruptions increased fertilizer costs for farmers, contributed to global food price inflation, and pushed “nutrient security” into national security debates in both developed and emerging economies. Governments responded by restricting exports, signing long-term offtake agreements, and in some jurisdictions designating phosphate or related inputs as “critical” materials for food systems or strategic industries.  

China, the world’s largest producer and exporter of phosphate fertilizers and processed phosphates, implemented discretionary export restrictions that significantly reduced global supply. These policies were partly intended to stabilize domestic prices but also to secure feedstock for lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery production, an expanding segment of the EV supply chain. This does not imply a direct diversion of fertilizer-grade phosphates toward batteries, but rather the emergence of a parallel, higher-purity value chain competing for processing capacity, capital allocation, and strategic attention. At the same time, Belarus and Russia, both key potash suppliers, faced sanctions and tariffs from the EU, further tightening fertilizer markets and raising nutrient costs.  

World consumption of phosphate nutrients (P₂O₅) increased from 45.8 million tons in 2023 to 47.5 million tons in 2024, and USGS projects demand will reach around 52 million tons by 2029, led by Asia and South America. This structural demand growth has kept pressure on prices even as energy markets softened in 2024–2025. Although oil prices have trended lower, phosphate markets have not fully reflected this easing because trade restrictions, strategic stockpiling, and supply-chain concentration remain the dominant forces shaping pricing. 

These dynamics are visible in the price data. After peaking in 2022, prices fell in 2023 as energy costs normalized but then began to rise again through 2024 and sharply in 2025. By mid-2025, DAP and TSP had climbed back to $770/mt and $660/mt, respectively, levels comparable to the 2022 shock period. Interestingly, phosphate rock prices remain far lower and relatively flat, suggesting that the current price surge is driven less by upstream extraction costs and more by bottlenecks in processing, trade policy, and supply chain risk, especially related to China. Indeed, the World Bank reports that its fertilizer price index increased for five consecutive quarters through Q3 2025, rising 14% quarter-on-quarter and 28% year-on-year.  

Looking ahead, the World Bank projects fertilizer prices to rise by 21% in 2025 before easing modestly in 2026 and 2027 but remaining well above their 2015–2019 average. These forecasts assume that China gradually relaxes its export restrictions. However, if export curbs persist, if natural gas prices rebound, or if global fertilizer demand grows faster than expected, phosphate fertilizer prices could remain elevated for longer. The main risk for the phosphate market is that prices could go higher. A few countries control most of the phosphate processing, and some phosphate is now being used for electric vehicle batteries, which limits how much is available for fertilizers. Trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions can also reduce supply. Because of these factors, the phosphate market is likely to stay tight, and fertilizer prices could remain high for the next few years.

North Africa: The World’s Strategic Phosphate Basin

1. Reserves and mining overview

North Africa sits at the heart of this emerging nutrient‑security agenda because Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia hold roughly 75% of global reserves (54–55 billion tons).  

North Africa occupies a central position in the global phosphate system due to the scale and concentration of its economically extractable reserves and the strategic importance of its mining basins. While global geological availability of phosphate rock is ample, effective supply is shaped by the location of certified reserves, the maturity of mining and processing infrastructure, and the degree of downstream integration. The map below highlights the region’s principal phosphate basins and reserve concentrations, which together underpin North Africa’s outsized role in global fertilizer and phosphate supply chains. 

Yet the same three countries produced only 16% of the global mined output of phosphate rock in 2024, (30 Mt in Morocco, 3.3 Mt in Tunisia and 2 Mt in Algeria). Because a high share of that rock feeds export‑oriented fertilizer and phosphoric acid industries, especially in Morocco, the region punches well above its weight in internationally traded phosphate products.​ 

Resources vs. Reserves: Why Qualification Matters 

Phosphate reserves refer to deposits that are economically extractable under current technological, regulatory, and market conditions. By contrast, resources represent known geological potential that has been identified through geological evidence but has not yet been fully assessed, proven economically viable, or supported by adequate infrastructure.

The US Geological Survey estimates that there are more than 300 billion tons of phosphate rock resources globally, but only 74 billion tons are currently classified as reserves that can be economically extracted with existing technology. World mine production of phosphate rock in 2024 was about 240 million tons, up from 233 million tons in 2023.

The uncertainty surrounding the economic, technical, and institutional conditions required to convert resources into reserves explains why several institutions, including the USGS, no longer publish country-level resource figures since 2009.

In North Africa, this distinction is particularly critical. Several large phosphate deposits currently classified as resources could transition into reserves with targeted geological surveys, feasibility studies, environmental and social assessments, and enabling infrastructure investments.

For Development Finance Institutions, this resource–reserve gap represents a high-impact intervention point. By financing geological qualification, feasibility studies, and enabling infrastructure, DFIs can materially shift projects from speculative resources to bankable reserves, crowding in private capital while managing environmental and social risks upfront.

2. Linked production and economic significance 

Understanding competitiveness in the phosphate sector requires analyzing performance across the full export value chain. Phosphate rock, phosphoric acid, and fertilizers capture progressively higher levels of value addition and global market exposure. Export trends in these three categories offer a clear, comparable metric of sector maturity, integration, and resilience, independent of domestic consumption patterns or theoretical capacity. 

A. Phosphate rock  

Phosphate rock export trends between 2015 and 2024 illustrate a highly asymmetric regional landscape. Morocco remains the clear regional and global leader, consistently exporting between USD 750 million and USD 1.3 billion annually, reflecting an export-oriented phosphate ecosystem. Algeria occupies a distant second tier, with exports accelerating notably after 2020 and stabilizing above USD 200 million in recent years as new capacity and state-backed initiatives came online. Tunisia, by contrast, is effectively absent from the global phosphate rock export market, with negligible exports for most of the past decade and only a limited rebound in 2023–2024. 

B. Phosphoric acid

Phosphoric acid export data reveals a more nuanced competitive picture than phosphate rock alone, highlighting where value is being captured in the regional phosphate chain. Morocco once again dominates, with exports consistently exceeding USD 1 billion per year and peaking above USD 2.2 billion in 2021–2022, underscoring OCP’s deep integration into downstream chemical processing and global fertilizer markets. This performance reinforces Morocco’s positioning not just as a resource holder, but as a price-maker and reliable supplier of processed phosphate intermediates.

Tunisia, however, tells a different, and strategically important, story. Despite severe disruptions in upstream mining, Tunisia has maintained a meaningful presence in phosphoric acid exports, averaging USD 150–400 million annually over the past decade, and showing a notable rebound in 2021–2023. This resilience reflects the relative strength of its downstream chemical infrastructure, particularly within the Groupe Chimique Tunisien (GCT), even when raw phosphate supply has been constrained. The sharp volatility in 2024 highlights persistent structural fragilities, notably feedstock availability, aging plants, and logistics, rather than a lack of market demand.

For investors, the contrast between Tunisia’s near absence in phosphate rock exports and its continued relevance in phosphoric acid markets is instructive. It suggests that Tunisia’s comparative advantage lies downstream, not in volume-driven mining exports. If upstream bottlenecks can be partially resolved and supply-chain reliability restored, phosphoric acid and purified derivatives represent the most credible near-term pathway for value recovery. This is precisely where technology, capital injection, environmental upgrades, and operational partnerships can materially shift outcomes.

Beyond its role in fertilizers, phosphoric acid is increasingly becoming a strategic input for the energy transition, particularly through its use in lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries. LFP chemistries now account for nearly half of global electric vehicle battery deployments, up from less than 10% in 2020, driven by lower costs, improved performance, and safety advantages over nickel-based batteries.

This shift has brought battery-grade purified phosphoric acid (PPA) into sharp focus as a potential supply-chain bottleneck. Unlike fertilizer-grade acid, PPA requires higher purity levels and more advanced processing capabilities. China currently dominates this segment, accounting for roughly three-quarters of global PPA supply and more than 95% of LFP cathode and battery cell production. As LFP demand continues to grow, industry projections point to a structural PPA supply gap emerging as early as 2030.

These dynamics reinforce a key lesson for phosphate-rich regions such as North Africa: strategic relevance increasingly lies not in phosphate rock extraction, but in downstream chemical upgrading and purification capabilities. For countries with existing phosphoric acid infrastructure, particularly Morocco and Tunisia, the ability to move toward battery-grade products represents a potential strategic adjacency—linking phosphate value chains not only to food security, but also to energy transition and critical-mineral supply diversification.

Phosphoric Acid Beyond Fertilizers: A Critical Input for LFP Batteries 

LFP batteries now supply nearly half of the global electric vehicle market, up from less than 10% in 2020, driven by lower costs, improved safety, and advances in performance.

This rapid shift in battery chemistry is bringing new critical-mineral supply chains into focus beyond nickel and cobalt.

Battery-grade purified phosphoric acid (PPA) is a key input for LFP cathode production and requires significantly higher purity and more advanced processing than fertilizer-grade phosphoric acid. Global PPA supply is highly concentrated, with China accounting for roughly three-quarters of production, alongside more than 95% of LFP cathode and battery cell manufacturing.

Phosphate competitiveness increasingly depends on downstream chemical upgrading rather than phosphate rock extraction alone. For phosphate-rich regions such as North Africa, existing phosphoric acid infrastructure provides a potential strategic adjacency to the energy transition, linking phosphate value chains not only to food security, but also to battery supply-chain diversification and industrial resilience.

C. Phosphate-based fertilizers

An examination of phosphate-based fertilizer exports across both basic phosphatic and compound (NPK) products¹ reveals a fundamental divergence in how the geological endowments are translated into economic value:

• Morocco has decisively reoriented its phosphate sector toward higher-value compound fertilizers, which now dominate export volumes and revenues, reflecting deep downstream integration, scale, and strong commercial execution.
• Tunisia, by contrast, remains constrained by limited capacity, operational volatility, and an incomplete move beyond basic products. Fertilizer exports remain episodic and structurally below potential, underscoring the gap between geological endowment and industrial performance. The contrast highlights that in phosphate markets, value creation is sustained by investment, reliability of operations, and the ability to compete in higher-value, formulation-driven fertilizer segments.
• Algeria remains largely absent from phosphate fertilizer exports, underscoring the lack of an integrated phosphate-to-fertilizer industrial platform.

Trajectories of the 3 Maghreb countries

1. Morocco: Mature, integrated global leader

A. Morocco’s Phosphate Sector 

Morocco represents the most advanced, integrated, and strategically positioned phosphate ecosystem in the region. Anchored by the state-owned Office Chérifien des Phosphates (OCP Group), the country has successfully transformed its vast phosphate endowment into a globally competitive industrial platform combining scale, cost leadership, downstream integration, and technological sophistication. 

Unlike peers still focused on raw material extraction or constrained by operational disruption, Morocco has proactively moved up the value chain and diversified into specialty fertilizers and adjacent strategic materials linked to both food security and the energy transition. As such, Morocco’s strategic moat lies less in the sheer scale of its reserves—by far the largest globally—than in its industrial optionality: modular downstream capacity, integrated logistics, product tailoring, and the ability to rapidly pivot product mix and destination markets during shocks. This optionality is underpinned by OCP Group’s uniquely integrated model, spanning mining, phosphoric acid, specialty fertilizers, R&D, and global exports, supported by a dense commercial network and modern port infrastructure. At the foundation of this system sits a diversified and scalable mining base, operated across four major phosphate mining sites:  

• 1 mine in the Ouled Abdoun basin near the city of Khouribga (~120 Km from Casablanca) with 43% of reserves and 70% of OCP’s production 
• 2 mines in the Gantour basin (Ben Guerir / Youssefia ~175km from Casablanca) with 37% of reserves 
• 1 mine in Boucraa region (Moroccan Sahara) 

OCP has steadily shifted its revenue mix toward high-value fertilizers, which accounted for 69% of total revenue in 2024, up from 54% in 2019. Meanwhile, the share of raw phosphate rock and phosphoric acid has declined, reflecting a strategic move up the value chain toward customized and specialty products.  

OCP is evolving from a phosphate rock and fertilizer producer into a diversified, integrated industrial group at the intersection of food security, energy transition, and critical materials. Its strategy combines scale, cost leadership, innovation, and sustainability, supported by strong financial fundamentals and a growing ecosystem of strategic partnerships. This positions OCP for long-term growth while enhancing resilience in an increasingly complex and strategic global fertilizer and materials market. 

The analysis of OCP’s 2024 results indicates that the Group is pursuing a long-term, capital-intensive strategy aimed at reinforcing its global leadership in phosphates while progressively diversifying beyond traditional fertilizer production. This strategy combines continued expansion of core industrial assets with a deliberate move up the value chain and into strategic adjacent markets. 

• Strengthening the Core Industrial Platform: At the core of its strategy, OCP continues to invest heavily in mining operations, fertilizer production, and logistics infrastructure to expand capacity, preserve cost leadership, and enhance industrial and commercial flexibility. Fertilizer production capacity is expected to reach around 28 million tons by 2030, supported by adaptable and modular production lines capable of responding rapidly to changing market conditions. These investments are designed to allow OCP to optimize product mix, arbitrage between market segments, and maintain competitiveness across economic cycles. 
• Moving Up the Value Chain Through Product Customization:  OCP’s product strategy is increasingly focused on higher value-added and customized phosphate products. The Group is gradually shifting away from standardized commodity fertilizers toward specialty and tailored solutions, with particular emphasis on Triple Super Phosphate (TSP) and customized phosphorus formulations adapted to specific soils and crops. This evolution supports higher margins, deeper customer relationships, and improved agronomic outcomes, while reinforcing OCP’s position as a solutions provider rather than a pure commodities producer. 
• Strategic Diversification Beyond Fertilizers: Diversification has emerged as a central pillar of OCP’s long-term strategy. Building on its phosphate resource base and industrial know-how, the Group is expanding into several strategic adjacent markets: 
  • First, OCP is advancing the decarbonization of fertilizer production through investments in green ammonia, aiming to lower the carbon footprint of its products and remain competitive as environmental regulations and customer preferences increasingly favor low-carbon inputs. 
  • Second, OCP is positioning phosphate as a strategic material for the energy transition by supplying intermediate inputs for Lithium-Iron-Phosphate batteries. This links phosphate demand not only to agriculture but also to the fast-growing electric vehicle and energy storage markets. 
  • Finally, OCP is enhancing value extraction through the recovery of co-products such as fluorine and uranium from phosphate rock. This improves overall resource utilization, diversifies revenue streams, and strengthens margins without requiring additional mining intensity. 
• Ecosystem and Partnerships as Execution Levers: Execution of OCP’s strategy is reinforced by a broad ecosystem of wholly owned subsidiaries, research institutions, and joint ventures. Dedicated entities in renewable energy and non-conventional water secure critical inputs, reduce exposure to energy and water constraints, and lower long-term operating risks. At the same time, partnerships and joint ventures in specialty phosphates, phosphoric acid, and agri-solutions support innovation, market access, and product differentiation. Together, this ecosystem enhances the resilience and effectiveness of OCP’s capital-intensive investment model. 
• Financial Strength Supporting Long-Term Investment: OCP’s strategic transformation is underpinned by strong financial performance and cash-generation capacity. 
  • In 2024, the Group generated USD 9.76 billion in revenues and USD 3.93 billion in EBITDA, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 40%. Capital expenditures reached USD 4.38 billion, reflecting the scale of ongoing investments, while leverage remained manageable at 2.48x EBITDA. Financing is supported by diversified funding sources, including bank loans, international bond issuances, and hybrid instruments. 
  • Momentum continued into 2025, with approximately USD 9 billion in revenues recorded over the first three quarters, representing a 30% increase year-on-year. During this period, OCP further scaled up its industrial footprint, commissioning a new 500,000-ton per year TSP production line at the Jorf Lasfar platform and a new phosphoric acid treatment unit with a daily capacity of 1,500 tons of P₂O₅. 

B. Strategic Recommendations for DFIs and international investors in Morocco’s Phosphate Sector 

• Implications for DFIs: Morocco’s phosphate sector represents a mature, systemically important platform where DFIs play less a role of capital providers and more that of ecosystem enablers and strategic partners. Given OCP’s strong balance sheet and access to capital markets, the primary value-add of DFIs lies in supporting long-term structural priorities rather than core capacity expansion. Key areas of engagement include: 
  • Financing and structuring ecosystem investments that support the resilience of the phosphate value chain, notably in non-conventional water, renewable energy, logistics, and shared industrial infrastructure. 
  • Supporting decarbonization pathways through blended finance and technical assistance for green ammonia, low-carbon fertilizer production, and emissions reduction across chemical processing. 
  • Anchoring ESG and sustainability standards in a globally significant sector, including water stewardship, circular economy initiatives (phosphogypsum valorization), and biodiversity management. 
  • Facilitating regional and South–South integration, positioning Morocco as a reliable anchor supplier for African and emerging-market fertilizer systems. Morocco is best approached as a platform for demonstration, standard-setting, and regional impact rather than as a traditional project-finance destination. 
  • Supporting knowledge transfer and institutional platforms, particularly in R&D, agronomic services, and digital agriculture, reinforcing OCP’s role as a solutions provider rather than a commodity exporter. 
• Implications for International Private Investors: Morocco offers exposure to a low-risk, highly competitive, but crowded phosphate ecosystem where opportunities are concentrated downstream and in strategic adjacencies rather than in mining or bulk fertilizers. While OCP does not require external capital to execute its core strategy, private investors can access attractive, defensible niches by aligning with its downstream, innovation-driven, and low-carbon trajectory. Priority investment themes include: 
  • Downstream specialization and product differentiation, particularly in customized fertilizers, specialty phosphates, and higher-margin formulations where technological know-how and sensitivity to customers specific needs matter. 
  • Energy transition adjacencies, including inputs for lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, purified phosphates, and the recovery of co-products such as fluorine and uranium. 
  • Technology and innovation partnerships, spanning process optimization, digitalization of operations, precision agriculture, and advanced chemical processing. 
  • Sustainability-linked infrastructure, including renewable energy integration, green hydrogen and ammonia value chains, and water-efficient industrial solutions. 

2. Tunisia: A Turning Point for a Legacy Producer

A. Tunisia’s Phosphate Sector 

Phosphate reserves in Tunisia are spread across the entire country and concentrated mainly in three basins:

• The Sra Ouertene basin in the north-west with emerging foreign interest in them (Australia and China)
• The Meknessy basin in the Centre
• The active Gafsa basin in the south-west, largely controlled by an SOE.

The Sra Ouertane deposit in Le Kef represents one of Tunisia’s largest phosphate resources, estimated at approximately 5 000 Mt at ~17% P₂O₅. While significant, it remains classified as a resource rather than a reserve due to limited geological qualification, infrastructure, and feasibility studies. This illustrates the broader “resource–reserve gap” in Tunisia and highlights the role of DFIs in supporting resource-to-reserve conversion through surveys, feasibility assessments, and co-financing of enabling infrastructure, creating pathways for de-risked private-sector participation.

Tunisia’s phosphate sector has historically been a cornerstone of the national economy and remains a strategic priority for the State. The sector remains largely state-dominated, controlled by two public companies that together hold a monopoly over extraction, processing, and commercialization of phosphate rock and derivative products:

• Compagnie des Phosphates de Gafsa (CPG): Tunisia’s historical backbone of phosphate mining. It manages the upstream part of the value chain by operating nine open-pit mines across the Gafsa mining basin. It also owns ten beneficiation plants with a combined processing capacity of approximately 8.3 million tons per year. CPG holds critical control over the raw material supply for Tunisia’s fertilizer and phosphate industries.
• Groupe Chimique Tunisien (GCT): Responsible for downstream processing and industrial operator, established in 1992. It takes raw phosphate from CPG and other sources and transforms it into fertilizers, phosphoric acid, and specialty phosphate products for domestic use and export.

Since 2011, the sector has faced structural challenges due to social unrest and a notable decline in production from 8 Mt in 2010 to 3.3 Mt in 2024, dropping Tunisia from the 5th to the 10th largest phosphate producer globally. While structurally intact in terms of reserves estimated at 2.5 billion tons, ranking Tunisia 4th globally, the sector significantly underperformed its geological and industrial potential throughout the decade.

Since 2023, the Tunisian authorities have launched a state-led reactivation strategy for the phosphate sector, with explicit presidential backing. Phosphate production has been reaffirmed as a national economic priority, with stated ambitions not only to recover past output levels but to exceed them. In early 2025, CPG and the Government of Tunisia announced new plans to increase production to 5 million tons by the end of 2025 and to 14 million tons by 2030 by boosting output through the acquisition of new equipment and machinery for the production units. These targets would place Tunisia well above its historical peak and signal a strong ambition to re-achieve global relevance.

In March 2025, A restricted ministerial council meeting approved a program for the development, production, transport and processing of phosphate for the period 2025-2030. A concrete pipeline of industrial projects has been approved or announced, aiming to move the sector up the value chain: 

• Rehabilitation of 190 km of railway lines dedicated to phosphate transport
• A new unit in Skhira producing fine monophosphate and granular monocalcium phosphate (≈ 250 000 tons/year)
• A purified phosphoric acid plant in Skhira (≈ 60 000 tons/year)
• A cadmium removal and purification unit in Mdhilla (≈ 180 000 tons/year)
• Completion of the Mdhilla 2 project, including a TSP plant with 400 000/year capacity
• Pilot units for:
  • Green ammonia production
  • Phosphoric acid upgrading
  • Granulated phosphate fertilizers

These initiatives indicate a deliberate shift away from raw rock exports toward higher value-added, cleaner, and export-oriented products, broadly mirroring the strategic trajectory followed earlier by Morocco.

While the core phosphate value chain remains dominated by CPG and GCT, Tunisia has begun very recently to exhibit a controlled and selective openness to foreign investors, particularly in upstream development and underexploited basins. Recent developments indicate renewed foreign investor interest in Tunisia’s phosphate sector, particularly beyond the traditional Gafsa basin:

In this context, the Minister of Industry and Mines received in July 2025 a delegation from China-based Asia Potash International Investment, which expressed interest in investing in mineral exploration and development, notably at the Sra Ouertane phosphate deposit in the Kef governorate. Sra Ouertane is considered strategically important due to its sizeable but largely undeveloped phosphate reserves. Unlike the historically exploited Gafsa basin, the site offers an opportunity to diversify Tunisia’s resource base, unlock new production capacity, and promote regional development.
The Chinese group also indicated interest in downstream activities, including fertilizer production and the development of potassium and bromine derivatives, aligning with Tunisia’s stated objective of increasing local value addition and reducing dependence on imports.

Another very notable example is PhosCo Ltd (Australia), which is advancing its wholly owned Gasaat Phosphate Project in Tunisia’s Northern Phosphate Basin. Key features include:

• Resource of 146.4 Mt at 20.6% P₂O₅
• A scoping study supporting a 46-year mine life, producing 1.5 Mt/year of phosphate concentrate
• Competitive economics, including operating costs of ~USD 79/t and a post-tax IRR of ~54%
• Strong institutional backing, including a €1 million grant from the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development, alongside potential future equity participation
• A community-participation model providing 10% local ownership, aligned with Tunisia’s social policy objectives

This model illustrates how Tunisia is allowing foreign capital, technical expertise, and IFI support to complement, rather than challenge, the existing state-led phosphate system. 

B. Strategic recommendations for DFIs and international investors in Tunisia’s Phosphate Sector

• Implications for DFIs: Tunisia’s phosphate sector represents a textbook case for DFI intervention at the intersection of institutional reform, infrastructure rehabilitation, and resource qualification. The constraint is not geological endowment but operational reliability, governance, and enabling infrastructure. Tunisia offers high development opportunities as targeted interventions can unlock substantial economic value, restore export capacity, and stabilize a strategically important sector. DFIs have a critical role to play in:
  • Supporting the resource-to-reserve transition, through financing geological surveys, feasibility studies, and environmental and social assessments, particularly in underdeveloped basins such as Sra Ouertane.
  • Rehabilitating critical infrastructure, including railways, ports, water systems, and aging chemical plants, which directly constrain sector performance.
  • Strengthening SOE governance and operational capacity at CPG and GCT through technical assistance, performance benchmarking, and restructuring support.
  • Enabling downstream upgrading and environmental compliance, including cadmium removal, purified phosphoric acid, and phosphogypsum management.
  • Structuring PPP frameworks and crowding-in private capital, using blended finance and milestone-based investment structures to mitigate execution and social risks. 
• Implications for International Private Investors: Tunisia presents a high-risk, high-upside turnaround opportunity, fundamentally different from Morocco’s mature platform. Successful investment in Tunisia will typically require co-investment with state entities, DFI involvement, and phased commitments tied to governance and performance milestones. Entry strategies must be selective, structured, and aligned with public-sector reform dynamics. Key opportunity areas include: 
  • Downstream processing and upgrading technologies, such as purified phosphoric acid, specialty phosphates, and advanced fertilizer formulations. 
  • Environmental and sustainability solutions, including emissions control, water treatment, and phosphogypsum valorization. 
  • Logistics and infrastructure investments, notably rail rehabilitation, storage, blending, and port handling, often in partnership with public entities. 
  • Selective upstream development in non-traditional basins, where foreign participation is increasingly tolerated under controlled frameworks. 
  • Engineering, operational excellence, and turnaround expertise, aimed at stabilizing and modernizing existing assets. 

3. Algeria: Latent Potential, State-Controlled and Under-Integrated 

A. Algeria’s Phosphate Sector

Algeria holds one of the largest untapped phosphate resource bases in the region yet remains structurally underrepresented in global phosphate and fertilizer markets. Unlike Morocco’s fully integrated industrial model or Tunisia’s ongoing turnaround efforts, Algeria’s phosphate sector is characterized by limited downstream integration, cautious execution, and a predominantly state-led development approach that has yet to translate geological potential into sustained export capacity and pace. Phosphate resources in Algeria are primarily concentrated in the eastern part of the country, notably: 

• The Bled El Hadba basin (Tébessa region), one of North Africa’s largest phosphate deposits, with reserves estimated in the billions of tons. 
• Smaller deposits in Djebel Onk, which historically formed the backbone of Algeria’s phosphate knowledge base but remain modestly exploited. 

The sector is overseen by state-owned mining and industrial entities, notably subsidiaries of Sonatrach and Manal Group, with phosphate development viewed as a strategic, long-term national project rather than a market-driven export platform. Despite repeated strategic announcements, Algeria has remained largely focused on upstream resource development, with limited progress in creating an integrated phosphate-to-fertilizer value chain. This structural gap is reflected clearly in trade data: while Algeria has increased phosphate rock exports since 2021, stabilizing above USD 200 million annually, it remains largely absent from phosphate-based fertilizer exports, underscoring the lack of a fully operational downstream industrial apparatus. 

Algeria’s phosphate strategy has historically centered on large-scale, state-backed industrial ambitions, including:

• The Integrated Phosphate Project (IPP) announced in partnership with Chinese firms, designed to link mining at Bled El Hadba to fertilizer and transformation complexes.
• Plans for fertilizer production targeting both domestic agricultural needs and export markets.

However, execution has been slow and uneven, constrained by:

• Capital allocation delays and governance complexity
• Limited foreign operator participation
• A cautious approach to partnerships and private investment
• Infrastructure bottlenecks linking mines to ports and industrial zones

As a result, Algeria has yet to achieve meaningful scale in phosphoric acid, phosphatic fertilizers, or compound (NPK) fertilizers, in stark contrast to Morocco’s export-driven specialization and Tunisia’s renewed downstream push. At present, Algeria occupies an intermediate position: more industrially stable than Tunisia’s crisis years, but far from Morocco’s integrated and globally competitive platform 

B. Strategic Recommendations for DFIs and international investors in Algeria’s Phosphate Sector

• Implications for DFIs: In Algeria, the phosphate sector is best viewed as a long-term structural transformation agenda, rather than an immediate commercial opportunity. Early upstream engagement can shape the long-term trajectory of a strategically important resource sector and DFIs can play a catalytic role in helping convert latent geological potential into an investable industrial ecosystem. Priority areas for IFI engagement include: 
  • Supporting strategic planning and feasibility work for integrated phosphate-to-fertilizer projects, including market studies and value-chain design. 
  • Assisting in infrastructure planning and financing, particularly rail connectivity, bulk handling, and port access linking inland deposits to export markets. 
  • Providing institutional and governance support to state-owned entities overseeing the sector. 
  • Facilitating selective openness to partnerships, including advisory support on PPP structuring. 
  • Anchoring environmental and social standards early in the development cycle to reduce future execution and reputational risks 

• Implications for International Private Investors: Algeria remains a long-dated optionality play rather than a near-term investment destination. Opportunities are constrained by state dominance, slow execution, and limited downstream capacity. Viable entry points are likely to be: 
  • Enabling and service-oriented roles, including engineering, project management, and technical advisory services for state-led projects. 
  • Logistics and infrastructure solutions, where efficiency gains can unlock value across the chain. 
  • Participation through consortia or DFI-anchored frameworks, reducing sovereign and exposure. 
  • Technology licensing and know-how transfer, rather than balance-sheet-heavy capital commitments. 

Conclusion: North Africa’s Pivotal Role in the Evolving Global Phosphate Value Chain

The global phosphate market is entering a structurally tighter and more strategic phase. While physical scarcity of phosphate rock is not imminent, effective supply is increasingly constrained by downstream concentration, trade policy, and geopolitical risk. As fertilizer demand grows alongside renewed pressure on food systems and rising non-agricultural uses of phosphates, particularly in energy transition technologies, the importance of reliable, integrated, and politically aligned supply chains will continue to increase.

North Africa occupies a uniquely strategic position in this evolving landscape. Morocco has already demonstrated how geological advantage can be converted into industrial leadership, resilience, and multi-sector relevance, positioning itself as a cornerstone supplier to global food and energy systems. Tunisia stands at a pivotal moment: recent policy backing and targeted industrial investments suggest a credible pathway toward recovery and selective value capture, provided execution risks are managed, and social stability is sustained. Algeria, despite its vast resource base, illustrates the limits of resource abundance without downstream integration, operational momentum, and openness to partners.

For policymakers, the regional contrast reinforces that phosphate competitiveness is no longer defined by reserves alone, but by governance quality, infrastructure, and market integration.

For Development Finance Institutions, the highest impact lies not in expanding extraction capacity, but in de-risking downstream upgrading, financing enabling infrastructure, and strengthening institutional execution.

For private investors, returns will increasingly depend on selectivity, partnerships, and alignment with state-led industrial strategies, as opportunities are uneven, country-specific, and increasingly concentrated downstream.

Phosphates should therefore be viewed not as a homogeneous mining sector, but as a strategic value chain where industrial design, policy alignment, and execution discipline determine long-term returns. In this context, North Africa will remain central, but only actors able to move beyond extraction into reliable, value-added production will shape the future of global nutrient security.

¹ For analytical clarity, phosphate-based fertilizer exports are grouped into basic phosphate fertilizers and higher-value compound (NPK) fertilizers, which incorporate phosphate alongside nitrogen and potash and reflect deeper downstream processing 

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