Global economic outlook - 2nd quarter 2009
Since our last outlook in January, the financial crisis has deepened and become a truly global recession. Economic activity in the United States, Europe, and Japan has declined at an alarming rate, as well as in emerging countries in East Asia and Central Europe with the latter at risk of further financial turmoil. Even the BRIC economies that at one time seemed relatively immune have experienced serious problems. Global trade has plummeted, causing concern that the increasingly global nature of the economy leads to more rapid transmission of trouble than in the past.
And yet, there are starting to be indications of light at the end of the tunnel. Global shipping rates have stabilized and modestly increased. Risk spreads are far below their level of a few months ago. And governments have been pumping money at an unprecedented rate. Still, risks remain. Deflation appears to be rearing its ugly head. The degree to which government action regarding banks will be effective is far from certain, and the specter of protectionism is not far below the surface.
In this issue of the quarterly Global economic outlook, Deloitte Research economists offer the following perspectives on the global situation:
- A critique of the Obama economic plan and a moderately optimistic view of the U.S. outlook.
- The Eurozone economic outlook and the limitations on economic policy action within the context of the European Union.
- Outlooks for the United Kingdom, Japan, China (and its impact on Southeast Asia), India, Russia, and Brazil.
- An analysis of the troubles in Central and Eastern Europe and their potential impact on the West.
- The more long-term issue of demographics and the likely constraints it will impose on policymakers the world over.
Download a full copy of the report below.
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