This marks the eleventh anniversary of Deloitte’s Predictions. What started in 2001 with ten predictions about mobile telephony has evolved and grown into one of Deloitte’s Technology, Media & Telecommunications group’s most anticipated research publications, covering all three converging industries. Launched in 46 countries, translated into 7 languages, downloaded and viewed in person and electronically by at least twenty-seven thousand people around the world, the 2011 Predictions set a high bar...that we hope to exceed in 2012.
Every industry changes over time. But no industry group does so as continuously and rapidly as Technology, Media & Telecommunications. Just in the last three years, the #5 phone manufacturer became #1, a smartphone operating system with under 2 percent market share went to 45 percent in the US, and the tablet market went from selling a million units per year….to selling that many every four days! In any industry it would be nice to know what will happen in the near future: in TMT it is indispensable.
Our networks of Deloitte member firm professionals who work in the TMT space provided the initial insights and ideas to draft a list of possible annual Predictions. Only then does our second network come into play. Across all three industries, around the world, and from established industry giants to tomorrow’s start-ups, Deloitte member firm clients are interviewed and asked for feedback, further sharpening the insights that Predictions can provide.
The Predictions have always attempted to be global in nature, and not just focus on Western Europe and North America. This year, we went even further, and as part of our CEO Summit in Beijing in late June, we held a special brainstorming session with key developing world executives. The results are part of the document you have before you.
Our track record speaks for itself…but a few highlights are helpful. In 2009 we forecast that 40-50 million netbooks would be sold: 44 million were. In 2010, we called for 10-12 million next generation tablets to be bought by consumers: 12.1 million were. In 2011, our Prediction was that more smartphones and tablets would be sold than PCs: over 40 percent more were. We review the accuracy of ALL Predictions every year: the rate has improved from 68 percent in 2009, through 72 percent in 2010, and was 82 percent in 2011. Who knows what 2012 will bring?
Last year, we acknowledged the trend towards TMT “convergence” by publishing all of the Predictions in a single converged report rather than having separate documents for tech, media and telecom. That was so well-received that we are doing it again…but each individual Prediction can also be consumed “a la carte”. Stand-alone PDFs, podcasts, and videos are available. There’s an app. And as always, there are dozens of Predictions launch events around the world.