– Makroläget hösten 2023 kan närmast betecknas som en vågskål där centralbankerna sitter på vikterna och avgör den ekonomiska utvecklingen. Den motståndskraft vi tidigare sett under 2023 har nu förbytts till ett läge där ekonomisk aktivitet skiljer sig alltmer åt ekonomier och regioner emellan. I Europa mattas nu aktiviteten inom både tillverkningsindustrin och tjänstenäringar av, vilket präglar resultaten i höstens CFO Survey, säger Marcus Widén, ekonom på SEB.
Andelen finanschefer som ser affärsmöjligheterna som fördelaktiga de kommande sex månaderna minskar i höstens CFO Survey till 20 procent, från 41 procent i våras. Samtidigt har andelen som anser att framtiden är mindre gynnsam ökat till 48 procent, från 23 procent i våras. Det betyder att indikatorn, eller nettobalansen mellan de som har en positiv syn och de som har en negativ syn, faller till minus 28, från plus 18 i våras. Det är både det lägsta värdet och den största enskilda förändringen sedan den globala finanskrisen 2008. Förändringen drivs till stor del av att stämningsläget för verkstadsindustrin har skiftat en hel del, där 50 procent av finanscheferna i sektorn ser läget som ogynnsamt medan motsvarande siffra i våras var 15 procent.
– Höstens rapport inger inte alltför mycket hopp om den fortsatta utvecklingen, men det finns tecken på att vi går i rätt riktning. Nuvarande period med vikande sentiment har pågått i två år – lika länge som föregående period, vilket tyder på att det finns en ökad chans för en återhämtning i den kommande vårens undersökning, säger Robert Bergström, partner på Deloitte.
Prioriteringar och risker
Kostnadsreducering är finanschefernas högsta prioritering, jämfört med organisk tillväxt som rankades högst i våras. 21 procent av finanscheferna uppger kostnadsreducering som en prioritet. Därefter rankas åtgärder för att förbättra kassaflödet och organisk tillväxt högst.
Vad gäller risker anser 55 procent av finanscheferna att ekonomisk tillväxt utgör en betydande risk de närmaste 12 månaderna – en ökning från 49 procent i våras. Det gör den till den mest betydande risken, följt av pressade marginaler och priser och vikande inhemsk efterfrågan.
Generativ AI i försöksverksamhet
Höstens undersökning ställer även frågor om företagens användning av generativ AI. Resultaten visar att allt fler aktivt börjar experimentera för att bilda sig en uppfattning om i vilken grad organisationen kan dra nytta av AI. Samtidigt ser en majoritet (85 procent) av företagen generativ AI som inte alls, eller bara något viktigt för sin verksamhet och strategi just nu. När finanscheferna frågas om inom vilka områden generativ AI kan vara till nytta rankas kostnadsreducering, effektivitet och stigande marginaler i topp – områden som även varit i fokus vid tidigare teknikskiften.
Om undersökningen
CFO Survey genomfördes i september 2023 och bygger på ett antal frågor som presenterats för och besvarats av utvalda deltagare via ett webbaserat formulär. De finanschefer som deltagit i undersökningen representerar ett urval av större svenska företag från olika branscher. Undersökningen har genomförts sedan 2006.
Läs rapporten här.
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