Svenska finanschefers syn på affärsmöjligheterna framöver har försämrats efter Rysslands invasion av Ukraina, samtidigt som geopolitiska risker har seglat upp som den mest betydande risken framöver. Det visar Deloitte och SEB:s senaste CFO Survey.
– När vi väl trodde att samhället var på väg tillbaka till ett mer normalt läge, med öppnade samhällen och en normalisering i ekonomisk aktivitet efter pandemin, chockerades världen av en ny katastrof i form av kriget i Ukraina. Det är först och främst en humanitär och mänsklig tragedi men får naturligtvis också stora ekonomiska följder, inte minst då decennier av globalisering har gjort länder och företag väldigt beroende av varandra. Detta ser vi i vårens CFO Survey, där synen på affärsmöjligheter kan sammanfattas som genomsnittlig jämfört med det mer gynnsamma läget vi såg i höstens undersökning, säger Marcus Widén, ekonom på SEB.
Andelen finanschefer som ser affärsmöjligheterna som fördelaktiga under de kommande sex månaderna minskar i vårens CFO Survey till 48 procent, från 73 procent i höstens undersökning. En stor andel, 45 procent, ser dem som genomsnittliga medan endast 7 procent ser dem som ogynnsamma.
Indikatorn för affärsmöjligheter, eller nettobalansen mellan de som har en positiv syn och de som har en negativ syn, faller till 41 i vårens undersökning, från 70 i höstas. Det är fortfarande något över det historiska genomsnittet, men betyder att synen på affärsmöjligheter skiftar från positiv till mer genomsnittlig. Även frågor rörande finansiella utsikter rör sig mot ett neutralt genomsnitt.
Risker
Geopolitiska risker anses av finanscheferna vara den mest betydande risken under de närmaste 12 månaderna, och är även den riskkategori som ökar mest i vårens undersökning. Av de svarande uppger 45 procent att de nu ser geopolitiska risker som störst, vilket är en ökning från 20 procent i höstens undersökning.
– Synen på risker har, som väntat, förändrats i vårens undersökning, och mer än två av fem finanschefer ser nu geopolitiska risker som störst. Detsamma gäller risker som rör brist på kvalificerad personal samt stigande priser. De här riskerna började dyka upp redan i höstas men har under vintern blivit allt mer pressande. De effekter som kriget i Ukraina anses få kommer att förstärka de redan ansträngda förutsättningarna, säger Robert Bergström, partner på Deloitte.
Om undersökningen
CFO Survey genomfördes under mars 2022 och bygger på ett antal frågor som presenterats för och besvarats av utvalda deltagare via ett webbaserat formulär. De finanschefer som deltagit i undersökningen representerar ett urval av större svenska företag från olika branscher.
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