Nigeria experienced a stable trading environment in 2024 compared to the turbulence of 2023, where there were significant legislative announcements and reversals, with the single most significant issue being the huge impact that Naira depreciation and exchange rate volatility had on import tariffs and ultimately, trade costs.
Last year, the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) continued its economic reforms, intervening where necessary to stabilize the business environment or lower the rising cost of living. Thankfully, there was a more stable foreign exchange rate, which helped businesses to better plan their trade costs, even though the pricing point remained high. The introduction of tariff cuts on essential commodities or key business inputs provided some cushion on the cost of doing business. However, many would argue that the reductions were at best only marginal due to challenges with the implementation of the tariff cuts.
In general, as the combined effect of the various economic reforms took shape, several businesses struggled for continuity, as production costs remained high, and consumer spending increasingly dropped with rising inflation. In the end, businesses that survived last year were able to do one or more of the following things: become more operationally efficient; successfully transfer the cost of the economic reforms to consumers; and diversify revenue streams including engaging in exports. In the end, some sectors were more impacted by others as shown from the profile of businesses that either changed business models or shut down completely.
This year, the Nigerian government seeks to accelerate its economic reforms, which will more likely than not see the trade environment face some disruption.
The year has just begun and so far, not much has changed from last year. However, we expect things to change rapidly, and businesses should be prepared. To help businesses plan the year, we have collated and commented on our top key trade themes for 2025.
It is possible that other issues not highlighted above could suddenly become front-burner discussions during the year. For instance, fiscal policy interventions could be introduced particularly where the FGN seeks to urgently intervene in a particular sector. We would have to wait and see.
Generally, we expect that there would be a continued focus on improving the business environment with one objective being to generate more tax revenues to finance the FGN budget. Therefore, whilst we may increasingly see new economic policies reflect the opinion of the business community, we fully expect the FGN to focus on improving tax collection.
To remain sustainable in the current business landscape, businesses would do well to not only dialogue with the FGN on matters affecting their businesses but also stay close to the discussions/deliberations/debates on proposed FGN legislations/policies. Also, and equally important, businesses who are unsure about their level of compliance with the extant customs and trade laws should take steps to review and where applicable, regularize their records.
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