The pandemic is managed due to effective responses from governments to contain the virus, but is not without lasting repercussions, which disproportionately affect small- and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and lower- and middle-income individuals and communities.

• Relatively constrained disease dynamic
• Effective health system and policy response

What would the global payments industry look like in this scenario?

• Companies weather the passing storm with government stimulus and focus investments on delivering digital experiences.
• Despite the relatively contained duration of the pandemic, contactless payments are widely adopted, and digital and faster payments gain share, propelled by rapid adoption by customers and merchants.
• Stronger demand for data security enhancement and fraud prevention with shift in customer behavior to online, mobile, and contactless commerce.

Governments around the world struggle to handle the crisis alone, with large companies stepping up as a key part of the solution and an acceleration of trends toward “stakeholder capitalism.”

• More prolonged pandemic
• Collaboration to control the pandemic led by large companies

What would the global payments industry look like in this scenario?

• Corporates step into the void and drive digital transformation and creation of digital superstores and marketplaces.
• Customers are prudent in spending, primarily on nondiscretionary purchases.
• Products, services, and customer retention programs are reimagined. Customers’ trust in large corporates and governments rises, leading to increased data-sharing.
• Large corporates acquire for scale and show leadership in risk domains.

China and other East Asian nations are more effective in managing the virus and take the reins as primary powers on the world stage.

• Severe pandemic
• Collaborative health response led by East Asian countries

What would the global payments industry look like in this scenario?

• East Asian players gain market share; they leverage their innovative business models, technology, and large customer base power.
• Recovery in Western countries lags and is influenced by lessons learned from East Asian countries; US dollar declines as preeminent world currency.
• Increased innovation and competition force players in the West to invest in intelligent automation and digital assets.

Prolonged pandemic period, spurring governments to adopt isolationist policies, shorten supply chains, and increase surveillance.

• Severe, rolling pandemics
• Insufficient global coordination and weak policy response

What would the global payments industry look like in this scenario?

• Competing nationalistic interests lead to fragmentation of global payment standards, networks, and regulations.
• Reduced business interoperability and regionalization of trade leads to impediments in cross-border supply chain and increase in price of goods.
• Companies are less resilient, weakened by a prolonged recession and limited investments. Governments and public sector take the lead in setting up national payment standards and enabling infrastructure.