The future awakens

The year is 2022. The quantified self is alive and well, digital technologies have transformed the culture of health care and new entrants have disrupted delivery models. This report from Deloitte UK's Centre for Health Solutions offers some predictions that, if they come true, will shake up the life sciences and health care industry in the next five years.

This Deloitte Centre for Health Solutions’ report builds on its 2014 report Healthcare and Life Sciences Predictions 2020: A bold future? Three years later, the pace and scale of innovation has meant that some of these original predictions are already a reality while some are still a way off and a few may quite never happen.

This new report evaluates evidence in 2017 and provide six new predictions of what the life sciences and health care ecosystem might look like in 2022 and the key constraints that will need to be overcome.

Challenging times lie ahead arising from a growing and ageing population and a tidal wave of chronic diseases. This report presents an optimistic view of the future, calling businesses to awaken to the possibilities that lie ahead.

The six predictions for 2022

1. The quantified self is alive and well

The genome generation is more informed and engaged in managing their own health

In 2022, individuals are better informed about their genetic profile, the diseases they have or might develop, and the effectiveness of health interventions. The ‘quantified self’ has embraced prevention and is devoting time, energy and money to staying healthy, including using regulated and validated health apps and wearables. Patients are true consumers; they understand they have options and use information and data about themselves and providers to get the best treatment at a time, place and cost convenient to them.

2. The culture in health care is transformed by digital technologies

Smart health care is delivering more cost-effective patient-centred care

By 2022, demographic and economic changes, increased patient expectations and advanced digital and cognitive technologies have disrupted health care worldwide. Clinical roles have been optimised, and staff use cognitive technologies to deliver more seamless, integrated care designed around patient needs and patients control access to their health data. The digital hospital leverages technologies to optimise care delivery, patient experience, staff deployment and the management of back-office services, reducing costs and improving outcomes.

3. The life sciences industry is industrialised

Advanced cognitive technologies have improved the productivity, speed and compliance of core processes

In 2022, pharma uses a lean operating model to generate funding for R&D and deliver more cost-effective medical innovations. The ’industrialisation’ of pharma has led to predictable productivity increases across its functions and geographies. Companies have moved through three phases of evolution and are now deploying artificial intelligence and machine learning to increase the pace and productivity further still. The traditional focus of industrialising finance and operations has been extended to compliance, commercial, development and discovery.

4. Data is the new health care currency

Artificial intelligence and real-world evidence are unlocking value in health data

In 2022, health care data is a national infrastructure priority and critical business asset, attracting significant funding. Real-world data (RWD) is providing the information needed to enable researchers to develop more precision medicine and clinicians to predict patients’ response to treatments, improving outcomes and health care productivity. Pharmaceutical companies collaborate fully with patients and health care systems, using data to develop better treatments, launch them faster and price them according to improvement in health outcomes.

5. The future of medicine is here and now

Exponential advances in life-extending and precision therapies are improving outcomes

By 2022, medicine is fully Predictive, Preventative (based on predictive risk), Personalised and Participatory (P4 Medicine). Insights from human genetics, precision and personalised medicine has transformed health care, bringing value through innovative biotechnology. Artificial intelligence has revolutionised health care through mining medical records, designing treatment plans, speeding up medical imaging and drug creation.

6. New entrants are disrupting health care

The boundaries between stakeholders have become increasingly blurred

In 2022, the health care landscape has changed significantly, with non-traditional health care players using their brand, engineering expertise and knowledge of customers to disrupt the health care landscape. These new entrants have partnered with traditional providers to deliver a more customer focussed, experience of health care. New partnerships and collaborations at both global and local level have blurred the boundaries between providers and new entrants, including supermarket chains, technology giants and life sciences companies.

The key enablers to thrive and survive the future

• Wide-scale adoption of new digital and cognitive health technologies
  The life sciences and health care industries have traditionally been slow to use data and analytics due to multiple disconnected systems, poor data quality and patient and provider behaviours that have been difficult to change. However, we are now at a tipping point in advanced technology adoption towards an outcomes-based, patient-centric care model.
• Recruitment and retention of new skills and talent
  The delivery of efficient and effective services requires organisations to have access to appropriate specialist and generalist skills and talent, including digital and analytical skills. How the health care industry responds in relation to recruitment and retention of the right talent and skills will determine how well these predictions are realised.
• A new approach to regulation
  For the past decade, most life sciences and health care companies have highlighted that a risk-averse approach to regulation has impeded adoption of innovation. The evidence today and predictions for tomorrow illustrate that this is changing.