Activity in the pharmaceutical industry: a costly bet on obesity and a defensive bet on influenza

This week brought a pair of transactions to the pharmaceutical industry that illustrate the current dynamics of the sector well.

Pfizer announced the acquisition of biotechnology company Metsera, a major player in the rapidly growing obesity treatment segment. The transaction is valued at up to $10 billion, with the price including both immediate cash and future payments contingent on the achievement of clinical trial milestones. For Pfizer, this is an attempt to strengthen its portfolio at a time when the company is facing significant patent expirations and declining revenues from COVID vaccines. At the same time, it is an entry into an extremely competitive environment still dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Success is therefore not guaranteed, but the potential reward is enormous—the market for obesity drugs is estimated to reach up to $150 billion annually.

The second event is Merck's planned acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics. The transaction is valued at around USD 9.2 billion and aims to strengthen Merck's position in the field of antivirals and infection prevention. Cidara's key asset is an innovative long-acting antibody that aims to transform influenza prevention in high-risk patients. Acquiring this candidate is strategic for Merck not only because of the expected demand, but also because it is an area with less price volatility than, for example, obesity treatment.

Together, the two transactions show how large pharmaceutical companies are responding to pressure to invest in long-term growth therapeutic areas while defending themselves against expected losses from expiring patents. At the same time, they confirm that M&A activity remains one of the main tools for maintaining the pace of innovation. For investors, this is a mixed signal: on the one hand, high growth potential; on the other, significant risks associated with integration, clinical results, and regulation.

Overall, however, this week has shown that the pharmaceutical sector is entering 2026 with a significant dose of ambition and nervousness.