Scenario 1 describes a world with liberalized global trade, growing economies, and technological innovation, supported by international regulatory cooperation. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are increasingly popular, and software is now generating more value than hardware, which gives tech players an edge in data ecosystems and automotive operating systems. Large traditional suppliers are, however, well-equipped to benefit under this scenario as well, often by acquiring smaller players. Automotive suppliers have evolved into competitive “specialized giants” covering at least one crucial part of the value chain, while OEMs lose out by 2030.

Scenario 2 projects a different future marked by geopolitical tensions and protectionism. Economic growth is stagnating, and regulatory priorities are diverging internationally, hampering technological progress. OEMs are increasingly focused on their home markets. Local suppliers become important drivers of innovation, while OEMs struggle to make investments. Automotive suppliers collaborate with tech players and form international partnerships to develop software solutions, vehicle platforms and purpose-built parts. By 2030, suppliers dominate the industry.

The third scenario is similarly characterized by geopolitical conflict, slow economic growth and stagnating technological progress. In the aftermath of COVID-19, the global recession gave rise to increased protectionism. ICE vehicles still enjoy a significant market share in 2030. The global technological ecosystem is fragmented, with China retreating from international markets. Now that regional markets have been isolated, OEMs play a central role in software innovation. They increasingly integrate along the value chain, developing their own operating systems and investing in mobility platforms. In scenario 3, OEMs retain the upper hand in the industry.

The fourth scenario presents a narrative of growth and liberalized global trade. International regulatory cooperation bolsters innovation and competition; there are significant advances in BEV technology. Production and sales increase in Asia, while stagnating in industrialized nations. OEMs consolidate around highly standardized vehicle architectures, becoming the new innovation leaders. They increase pressure on suppliers through backwards integration in certain areas of the value chain (software, battery management). The global expansion of Chinese suppliers creates additional competition for regional suppliers, as they find themselves dominated by OEMs by 2030.