WEBVTT X-TIMESTAMP-MAP=LOCAL:00:00:00.000,MPEGTS:0 00:04.789 --> 00:06.250 Good morning and good afternoon. 00:06.489 --> 00:08.989 The Menuettis. My name is Shannon Lundquist, 00:09.020 --> 00:13.340 and I'm a vice chair for Deloitte Canada, currently leading our federal practice here in 00:13.340 --> 00:17.180 Ottawa on the traditional lands of the Algonquin and the Snabe peoples. 00:18.040 --> 00:20.530 Just a small bit of housekeeping before we begin. 00:20.840 --> 00:24.670 We're pleased to offer language interpretation services for this session. 00:24.879 --> 00:28.209 Please look for the interpretation icon at the bottom of your Zoom window. 00:28.299 --> 00:29.649 It looks like the globe. 00:30.120 --> 00:34.310 Click on the interpretation icon, and a list of available languages will appear. 00:34.560 --> 00:36.799 Select your preferred language from the list. 00:37.880 --> 00:41.270 Today we are going to explore Canada's current political landscape, 00:41.360 --> 00:45.639 the forthcoming federal election, and the policy challenges that lie ahead for the next 00:45.639 --> 00:49.029 federal government. With me today are 3 eminent leaders, 00:49.119 --> 00:51.310 beginning with Edward Greenspawn. 00:51.520 --> 00:55.909 Prior to joining Deloitte Canada as the co-chair of the Future of Canada Center, 00:56.279 --> 00:59.150 Ed was the president and CEO of the Public Policy Forum. 00:59.639 --> 01:03.389 Ed is a celebrated journalist, was editor in chief for the Globe and Mail, 01:03.700 --> 01:05.910 and editor at large for Bloomberg in Canada. 01:06.220 --> 01:11.120 He's also a celebrated author of two books on Canadian politics and is a regular contributor 01:11.120 --> 01:12.129 to major news media. 01:13.069 --> 01:16.830 Next we have Dawn Desjardin, chief economist at Deloitte Canada, 01:16.870 --> 01:21.989 with significant experience researching and advising on economic and policy issues. 01:22.349 --> 01:25.870 She has held the coveted position of RBC's deputy chief economist, 01:26.029 --> 01:29.459 was formerly a reporter for Bloomberg Financial News in Canada, 01:29.750 --> 01:32.459 and a bond strategist at JPMorgan Canada. 01:32.870 --> 01:35.669 And last but not least, the Honorable Peter MacKay. 01:36.709 --> 01:41.019 Peter served in the Parliament of Canada for over 19 years as a cabinet minister, 01:41.470 --> 01:45.260 including Justice and Attorney General, Department of National Defense, 01:45.550 --> 01:49.500 Foreign Affairs, and the Atlantic Canada Op Opportunities Agency, 01:49.790 --> 01:53.300 and chaired the Government National Security Committee for almost 10 years. 01:53.669 --> 01:58.349 He is a lawyer and served as a Crown Attorney in Nova Scotia before being elected and is now 01:58.349 --> 02:00.110 an executive adviser with Deloitte. 02:01.059 --> 02:02.379 So let's get into it. 02:02.910 --> 02:08.350 Earlier this week, the OECD significantly lowered its forecast for global economic growth 02:08.350 --> 02:12.229 in the coming two years, with particularly large drops for the US, 02:12.350 --> 02:13.899 Canada, and Mexico. 02:14.309 --> 02:19.380 It also increased forecasts for inflation, pointing to trade wars and uncertainty. 02:19.990 --> 02:25.339 Don, hoping you can help us set the stage, how do you see the state of the Canadian economy 02:25.339 --> 02:29.740 and what are you looking, what are you going to be looking out for in the months ahead? 02:31.240 --> 02:36.320 Well, thank you, Shannon. um, yes, the OECD has certainly leading the 02:36.320 --> 02:43.169 charge in terms of lowering forecasts, as you mentioned, a pretty dramatic cut to the outlook 02:43.169 --> 02:47.869 uh for Canada and a particularly big one, for Mexico. 02:48.279 --> 02:54.869 So looking at the current state of the economy, we exited last year with pretty good momentum, 02:55.029 --> 02:58.559 um, which was even stronger than most had anticipated. 02:58.990 --> 03:04.440 So that was looking OK, but since that time, we have seen massive changes in terms of sentiment. 03:04.720 --> 03:09.619 I think that is really what we're watching because that sentiment will shift into action 03:10.029 --> 03:13.440 uh by Canadian consumers and Canadian businesses. 03:13.729 --> 03:18.250 Just this morning, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business released their sentiment 03:18.250 --> 03:21.169 index, uh, so small and medium sized businesses. 03:21.429 --> 03:26.190 And that fell to the lowest level on record, a record that spans 25 years. 03:26.309 --> 03:31.279 So, obviously, you know, companies are assessing the current environment, 03:31.470 --> 03:37.720 looking at their supply chains, looking at Where they're going to be selling their goods 03:37.720 --> 03:39.770 and are extremely worried about that. 03:40.020 --> 03:45.220 We've seen other surveys, uh, one also the Bank of Canada put out and it said that businesses 03:45.220 --> 03:51.100 at this stage and really are, are very concerned but not actually going to be putting 03:51.100 --> 03:52.169 some money to work. 03:52.460 --> 03:57.380 And as we all know, Canada's economy has been lagging in terms of productivity and a lot of 03:57.380 --> 04:00.910 that reflected the fact that we didn't see a lot of business investment underway. 04:01.550 --> 04:04.699 And now, we are delaying that even further. 04:05.190 --> 04:08.429 Totally makes sense. Uh, we've seen data on home sales, 04:08.509 --> 04:11.979 for example, in Canada, dropping like a stone because of course, 04:12.309 --> 04:17.010 Canadians are worried about businesses holding back on terms of investment, 04:17.230 --> 04:22.380 but also facing weaker sales that could in fact lead to job losses. 04:22.750 --> 04:28.140 So this is reverberating through the economy. Yes, we have steel and aluminum tariffs so far, 04:28.190 --> 04:33.179 but We don't have the broader ones, that's uh supposedly on April 2nd, 04:33.339 --> 04:38.100 whatever we're going to see on April the 2nd, but it's already having a material impact on 04:38.100 --> 04:43.980 the economy. This uncertainty is really weighing on activity 04:43.980 --> 04:48.309 right across the piece and so When we're thinking about what are we looking for as we go 04:48.309 --> 04:53.200 forward, it is going to be, what does this look like in terms of Canadians, 04:53.230 --> 04:57.790 what uh uh goods going abroad, but also what are retaliatory tariffs? 04:57.989 --> 05:02.839 What are they gonna look like? What's the implication for our currency and how 05:02.839 --> 05:05.239 is our interest rates going to evolve now. 05:05.769 --> 05:11.209 We're looking at this from the lens of high uncertainty already impacting the economy, 05:11.250 --> 05:14.720 how deep and how long that stays in place. 05:14.970 --> 05:20.049 Very hard to tell at this stage, simply because we don't know what April 2nd is gonna look like. 05:20.329 --> 05:24.489 And when we do see that, that's when we can really incorporate into the numbers, 05:24.700 --> 05:26.130 something more substantive. 05:26.339 --> 05:30.920 But I would say this right now, we're looking at all of these confidence measures, 05:30.980 --> 05:36.019 watching to see how the labor market performs. It has already started to soften in the month 05:36.019 --> 05:36.989 of February. Is that going? 05:37.049 --> 05:42.320 to continue and if so, what's the magnitude of the decline in employment? 05:42.600 --> 05:46.630 What does that mean for all other sectors of spending from the consumer? 05:46.890 --> 05:51.959 And of course, looking at all of these metrics in terms of what does it mean for how people 05:51.959 --> 05:53.679 are anticipating inflation? 05:54.179 --> 05:59.140 No, inflation going to be up because of the tariffs, but we're also gonna have a weaker 05:59.140 --> 06:02.769 economy. So what's the net of those two factors? 06:03.059 --> 06:06.570 And what does that mean for central bank policy? The Bank of Canada, 06:06.579 --> 06:12.399 as we know, has been very active, lowering that policy rate by 225 basis points, 06:12.700 --> 06:17.549 but Now we're starting to see a shift in these inflation readings just as the latest month, 06:17.589 --> 06:21.420 but also inflation expectations and that really is stuff we'll be watching. 06:21.549 --> 06:25.829 How does that impact monetary policy and as our discussion will unfold, 06:26.149 --> 06:31.459 what are the fiscal policy supports that we can anticipate to offset some of this really 06:31.459 --> 06:36.869 negative, uh, sentiment but also pull back in action that we're currently experiencing. 06:38.149 --> 06:40.470 Thanks John. Ed, your thoughts on the current state? 06:42.339 --> 06:48.820 Um, well, I, I, I, I, I think, um, I think I'm gonna stick to the political since Don has 06:48.820 --> 06:52.500 covered, uh, uh, the economy some, uh, so well, although maybe, 06:52.619 --> 06:54.489 uh, maybe we'll go back to that later. 06:54.739 --> 07:00.230 Look, I think, um, I think we've also gone through a massive political shock in the 07:00.230 --> 07:07.190 country which was precipitated by Donald Trump and the uh the arrival and the expected arrival 07:07.190 --> 07:13.549 of Donald Trump, you know, starting with uh with the break that Christopher Friedland and 07:13.549 --> 07:16.899 Justin Trudeau had at the beginning of January. 07:17.524 --> 07:22.894 In December and, and uh uh introduce uh subsequent uh resignation, 07:23.744 --> 07:26.505 which was something that everybody had been expecting, uh, 07:26.545 --> 07:30.204 but since he hadn't done it, nobody was expecting it anymore and then his, 07:30.265 --> 07:32.654 you know, hand was uh his hand was forced. 07:32.984 --> 07:38.744 So now, um, uh, everything's changed, you know, we were looking at a change election. 07:39.140 --> 07:45.369 And a time for change election is a very, very powerful and difficult thing to counter, 07:45.859 --> 07:50.420 but the frame of the whole country then was changed and the leader was changed. 07:50.500 --> 07:56.739 Now, usually leadership changes don't satisfy the yearning that people have for time for 07:56.739 --> 08:00.410 change. Um, we'll see if this time, uh, is different, 08:00.489 --> 08:04.200 and I think because change is less important, because we are now talking, 08:04.450 --> 08:09.019 you know, who is best to lead us in this very difficult time. 08:09.489 --> 08:13.010 Uh, you know, Mr. Carney has been doing, uh, a few things. 08:13.105 --> 08:18.644 In his very short uh tenure as prime minister, but he's uh uh been doing them quite 08:18.644 --> 08:23.325 deliberately, you know, he's been out there slaying albatrosses and, 08:23.334 --> 08:26.524 um, and the government had a lot of albatrosses to slay, 08:26.605 --> 08:31.799 you know, whether that was um Uh, the carbon tax or the capital gains tax, 08:32.049 --> 08:36.890 uh, tax or the reputation that allows for fiscal laxity, 08:37.049 --> 08:42.080 uh, neglect of defense, um, uh, Justin Trudeau, you know, 08:42.210 --> 08:46.280 he's, he's been, you know, trying to distance himself one way or another, 08:46.690 --> 08:48.479 uh, from all those things. 08:49.090 --> 08:54.489 You know, there's a kind of debate in, um, I guess mostly in media and political circles of 08:54.489 --> 08:59.799 whether Uh, whether he has satisfied the change from Trudeau because the cabinet, 08:59.880 --> 09:03.789 although much smaller, is made up of people who were ministers to Trudeau. 09:04.119 --> 09:07.510 I don't actually think that's something that the public is is factoring in. 09:07.599 --> 09:12.719 I think the leader has changed and the leader has been doing the second thing that he's been 09:12.719 --> 09:18.880 trying to do, which is showcase himself as a leader, to kind of create a habit, 09:19.000 --> 09:21.440 you know, in some ways and Canadians that they under, you know, 09:21.520 --> 09:22.869 that they're accustomed to him. 09:23.239 --> 09:27.479 Uh, as a leader, and, um, you know, this past week, you know, 09:27.640 --> 09:32.640 going to Europe and not going to Washington was um uh an interesting and I think, 09:32.719 --> 09:36.760 you know, politically helpful uh move going to the Arctic, 09:36.929 --> 09:40.010 uh, having the meeting that he'll have tomorrow with the premiers, 09:40.119 --> 09:43.210 you know, he's, he's shown himself to be the prime minister. 09:43.719 --> 09:49.359 Um, the prime minister gets an incumbency advantage and that incumbency advantage. 09:49.729 --> 09:55.530 Usually isn't necessary during an election campaign because been Prime Minister for a long 09:55.530 --> 10:00.169 time, but B is uh is somewhat constrained by what's called the caretaker convention, 10:00.210 --> 10:03.369 which limits um sort of politics. 10:03.919 --> 10:06.469 Uh, during a ripp period. 10:06.960 --> 10:11.880 But given, but, but it only limits it. It doesn't shut it off entirely when there's 10:11.880 --> 10:15.270 very important things, you know, the prime minister is the prime minister, 10:15.359 --> 10:21.440 the cabinet is the cabinet, and they stay that way until somebody new was sworn in to uh to 10:21.440 --> 10:24.520 take their place. And I think he will, I think Carney will use 10:24.520 --> 10:29.030 that incumbency advantage to continue showcasing himself in that way. 10:29.400 --> 10:32.900 Um, you know, which I guess brings us to, well, well, let me sort of say there's two 10:32.900 --> 10:37.580 vulnerabilities, uh, I think that he has and two weaknesses that we've seen so far, 10:37.849 --> 10:40.440 you know, and that's, um, I don't think that from being, 10:40.530 --> 10:45.830 uh, uh, a liberal in a time that liberals have been falling into greater disrepute, 10:45.869 --> 10:51.140 but as being a rookie in politics, and it's manifests itself both in the Brookfield affair, 10:51.210 --> 10:56.320 if you will, the, uh, the move of Brookfield's uh headquarters to New York from Canada. 10:56.820 --> 11:01.179 Uh, which, uh, uh, Carney was part of the board that made, 11:01.280 --> 11:04.090 uh, you know, important part of the board that made, uh, 11:04.380 --> 11:09.190 uh, that made that, uh, decision, and I got to say at the time when I heard that decision, 11:09.580 --> 11:11.869 and this is before he declared for leadership, but at the time, 11:11.900 --> 11:15.409 you know, everybody knows what his ambition had been, and I thought, 11:15.700 --> 11:20.700 um, why wouldn't he kind of resign from the board at that point rather than being part of 11:20.700 --> 11:21.780 the decision. He doesn't. 11:21.885 --> 11:25.515 Have to trash the board, but he doesn't have to be part of the decision. 11:25.635 --> 11:28.625 I I think that was the first mistake, and the second mistake in that, 11:28.955 --> 11:33.924 uh, uh, at that moment was, um, just not handling the situation well when it, 11:34.044 --> 11:35.664 uh, you know, when it came up. 11:35.955 --> 11:39.994 And, you know, I guess you learn, uh, a new poll about the rookie, 11:40.155 --> 11:42.744 you know, that, that's the kind of rookie, uh, a rookie thing. 11:42.794 --> 11:46.955 And the other thing of course is the blind trust question and um. 11:48.159 --> 11:53.510 You know, I, I, I, I, I've been on the side of uh of the bring news media, 11:53.840 --> 12:00.030 and, uh, and I understand that, um, you know, that the media is doing its job in this case, 12:00.140 --> 12:06.320 and, uh, and I think um uh the prime minister could probably help himself by naming the 12:06.320 --> 12:11.849 trustee, by being very explicit on what filters are being put on of decisions he won't make, 12:12.489 --> 12:18.270 but I don't think that um Uh, disclosing his assets at this point before an election 12:18.270 --> 12:19.770 campaign will be helpful to him. 12:20.099 --> 12:24.780 I think it would be, uh, um, you know, just feeding the beast, 12:24.940 --> 12:27.580 uh, uh, even, uh, even more so. 12:28.099 --> 12:31.739 Uh, and then finally on Trump, you know, uh, um. 12:33.150 --> 12:38.580 Pierre Poliev uh has had some, uh some struggles, I think, 12:38.590 --> 12:44.320 doing the pivot that he needs to do, you know, from a change election to a leadership election, 12:44.830 --> 12:50.909 and, you know, there's nobody who's more nostalgic for 2024 than Pierre Poliev and 12:50.909 --> 12:54.549 perhaps Justin Trudeau, you know, uh, uh, and, you know, 12:54.789 --> 12:58.020 we're in 2025 and it's a very, very different. 12:58.440 --> 13:04.369 Uh, situation and you can't fight, um, uh, the war that you didn't get to fight, 13:04.460 --> 13:06.859 the war that you wanted to fight, you have to fight, you know, 13:06.940 --> 13:09.650 what's, uh, uh, you know, what's in front of you. 13:10.099 --> 13:15.419 I think Carney, uh, has handled himself pretty well vis a vis, 13:15.440 --> 13:19.940 um. Um, uh, Trump so far, but, you know, these are 13:19.940 --> 13:24.489 very tricky waters, you know, he's trying to portray himself as a grown up in the room, 13:24.780 --> 13:28.380 but not everybody in the room wants to be grown up right now. 13:28.429 --> 13:31.609 They want to, you know, kind of have their emotional, uh, 13:31.739 --> 13:34.429 you know, response, which is, you know, understandable. 13:34.530 --> 13:38.330 So, so that's tricky terrain, I think, uh, uh, for, uh, 13:38.340 --> 13:43.700 for both of them, and I'm sure Carney didn't appreciate fully the kiss of death from Trump 13:43.700 --> 13:46.469 yesterday. Right, thanks for that. 13:46.789 --> 13:52.710 Peter, before we shift to Conservative Party strategy, a quick thought on Carney's incumbent 13:52.710 --> 13:54.729 advantage in his early first days? 13:55.390 --> 14:00.150 Yeah, I mean, that's a great, uh, a great question because is it really an incumbent 14:00.150 --> 14:03.700 advantage? Yes, he's been sworn in what, 7 days ago. 14:04.679 --> 14:07.539 He's already been to England and France, but not Washington. 14:08.299 --> 14:12.650 Uh, visited the Arctic, which I think was the best of his decision making. 14:12.900 --> 14:18.340 I differ a little bit perhaps with the analysis that going to Europe was going to get him 14:18.340 --> 14:22.820 credit. Um, if you're trying to portray yourself as not 14:22.820 --> 14:26.080 like Justin Trudeau, that wasn't the way to do it. 14:26.940 --> 14:31.250 Uh, I, I think if he really wanted to demonstrate to Canadians that he should handle, 14:31.659 --> 14:34.650 you know, his best placed to handle Trump, he should do so, 14:34.659 --> 14:35.659 and that means engaging. 14:36.469 --> 14:40.789 I thought perhaps the, the shrewdest thing that Justin Trudeau left did before leaving office 14:40.789 --> 14:42.979 was go to Mar a Lago. It didn't work out for him, 14:43.270 --> 14:44.500 but it was a bold move. 14:44.869 --> 14:46.299 Nobody saw that coming. 14:46.710 --> 14:50.340 And, uh, you know, it played out over time and led to insults. 14:50.789 --> 14:52.390 But I can tell you this. 14:53.369 --> 15:00.289 After the prosperity and protection of Canadians, the 2nd most important file on the 15:00.289 --> 15:01.520 Prime Minister's desk. 15:02.390 --> 15:04.429 His good relations with the United States of America. 15:05.380 --> 15:09.049 Because it's in our collective best interests when it comes to our economy, 15:09.099 --> 15:11.020 obviously, and we'll get into that further. 15:11.719 --> 15:16.570 But now, perhaps more than ever before with the geopolitics and the moving parts in the Middle 15:16.570 --> 15:19.450 East, Ukraine, potentially the Straits of Taiwan. 15:20.340 --> 15:24.539 Our national security is going to be an issue like never before. 15:25.099 --> 15:30.940 We are coming into an election campaign, maybe Sunday, that is going to open up a lot of these 15:30.940 --> 15:33.179 questions. And yes, of course, the economy and, 15:33.299 --> 15:38.059 and uh Dawn, I think, has laid out very well the situation where we are. 15:38.979 --> 15:41.719 But for Mr. Carney to declare that, you know, 15:41.799 --> 15:44.690 he's an economist, which he is, Harvard educated, uh, 15:44.719 --> 15:50.809 Oxford, Bank of Canada in England, I, I mean, a, a truly impressive resume. 15:51.599 --> 15:52.929 But this is now politics. 15:53.830 --> 15:58.450 And politics, as Ed referenced, is a whole different kettle of fish, 15:58.530 --> 16:00.320 as we say out here on the East Coast. 16:00.849 --> 16:03.539 And I think he is finding out the hard way. Even when, 16:03.650 --> 16:09.690 you know, a CBC reporter attacked him, he seemed very thin-skinned about the question of 16:09.690 --> 16:14.919 his Venetian blind trust and how uh people are not really getting a look at what's in there. 16:15.719 --> 16:19.119 Uh, even the ethics counselor. So, the, these are issues that are, 16:19.150 --> 16:24.320 are going to dog him, I think, on the election campaign, as is the big issue, 16:24.359 --> 16:26.109 in my opinion, uh, Shannon. 16:27.020 --> 16:33.599 How can you say you're not like Justin Trudeau, and you guided uh Stephen Harper through the 16:33.599 --> 16:36.719 Great Recession. Uh, it wasn't Jim Flaherty, it was, 16:36.880 --> 16:39.390 it was, it was Mr. Carney, according to him. 16:39.799 --> 16:44.969 And you, uh, you really, you know, uh, helped Great Britain through Brexit. 16:45.080 --> 16:49.950 Well, that's a bit of a spotty record too, when we dig a little deeper. 16:50.320 --> 16:53.960 And so, on the economy, picking up on just a couple of points. 16:54.729 --> 16:59.150 The dawn made, as it pertains to Mr. Carney, is Canada. 16:59.969 --> 17:05.660 In a, in an advantageous place as we hit these very difficult times with our closest friend 17:05.660 --> 17:08.810 and partner and security uh supplier. 17:09.489 --> 17:12.300 I, I don't think we are. I think we're in perhaps one of the most 17:12.300 --> 17:17.369 vulnerable places that we've ever been at the most inopportune time, 17:17.500 --> 17:19.260 that is to say, the perfect storm. 17:20.119 --> 17:27.029 You know, weak dollar, interest rates, uh, we are seeing a precipitous decline in direct 17:27.029 --> 17:29.448 foreign investment over the last number of years. 17:29.879 --> 17:35.269 We have left our valuable resources in the ground while importing things like oil and coal 17:35.958 --> 17:40.288 and gone around the world lecturing them about uh climate change disaster, 17:40.359 --> 17:45.198 and, and this, this is not climate change denial, it's just to say this is also going to 17:45.198 --> 17:48.759 be a big issue for Mr. Carney, given that he was all in. 17:49.489 --> 17:54.729 On, uh, on saving the planet. And so a lot of these facts have yet to really 17:54.729 --> 17:58.209 hit. And I think you will see a campaign which is 17:58.209 --> 18:03.719 going to be very elbows up and very pointed on the economy, 18:04.050 --> 18:05.239 on security. 18:05.810 --> 18:12.319 My last point is that, who was the economic adviser of the prime minister 18:12.849 --> 18:15.160 during the last 5 years? 18:15.459 --> 18:19.219 It was celebrated at the time. This was going to pull us out of the doldrums. 18:19.290 --> 18:24.479 And so that is also a record that presumably he'll run away from, 18:24.849 --> 18:29.609 while still claiming his liberal credentials, just as they will try to stick Pierre Poglia 18:29.609 --> 18:34.050 very closely to Donald Trump, even though Trump has now said he doesn't like him. 18:34.949 --> 18:39.339 So, it will be left for Canadians to sort of parse out the truth. 18:39.369 --> 18:42.339 And that, that's always the challenge. The media will be there to help. 18:42.630 --> 18:47.160 We have more direct communication now than ever before with the internet. 18:47.579 --> 18:53.219 So it is going to be a, a massively interesting and compelling and dynamic campaign, 18:53.670 --> 18:55.270 perhaps kicking off as soon as Sunday. 18:55.810 --> 18:59.760 Right, and Peter, maybe let's stick with the, let's stick with that thought on the campaign 18:59.760 --> 19:04.170 and, you know, for the last 18 months, conservatives have focused on their campaign, 19:04.329 --> 19:08.890 you know, you know, mottos, ax attacks, anti-Trudeau, you know, 19:09.010 --> 19:10.530 highlighting Canada's broken. 19:10.930 --> 19:16.760 But going into this race now, uh, neither major parties advocating for consumer carbon tax. 19:17.010 --> 19:18.599 Nationalism is great. 19:18.810 --> 19:21.010 No one thinks Canada is broken, obviously. 19:21.380 --> 19:25.410 We're faced with a uniquely challenging time in Canada-US relations, 19:25.619 --> 19:30.969 as all of you have said, and an ever evolving situation in the Ukraine. 19:31.380 --> 19:36.140 How is the Conservative Party evolving its strategy to convince Canadians that Mr. 19:36.290 --> 19:38.010 Polyev is ready for the challenge? 19:39.310 --> 19:43.579 Well, I, I would say not very adeptly thus far, um, although they've tried. 19:43.670 --> 19:49.060 I, I think they did have a hard time, and I, I think Ed referred to this as well. 19:49.390 --> 19:51.739 Nobody knew that Truter was leaving until he was leaving, 19:51.869 --> 19:55.420 but, uh, they were all in. They had the t-shirts made, 19:55.469 --> 20:00.910 the ads were in the bag, they were ready to run on this sort of sloganistic, 20:01.430 --> 20:03.229 you know, keying in on ax attacks. 20:03.510 --> 20:06.459 And Carney, I think, quite smartly got rid of that right away, 20:06.560 --> 20:12.510 although there's even controversy around whether it's really gone and um because it 20:12.510 --> 20:15.300 requires a legislative change, not just an executive order, 20:15.349 --> 20:18.750 which doesn't exist in Canada. It's, it's a difference between our system and 20:18.750 --> 20:22.989 theirs, among others. So, I, I think the Conservative Party is going 20:22.989 --> 20:26.390 to have to hone their messaging, and I'll say it simply, 20:26.430 --> 20:29.219 they're going to have to put more substance out there. 20:29.430 --> 20:33.819 They will have a costed platform as, as all parties will, 20:34.390 --> 20:41.380 and, you know, they're, they're fighting on Mark Carney's ground when it becomes questions 20:41.380 --> 20:42.479 of the economy. 20:43.750 --> 20:47.260 On security, and, you know, this is my own take on this. 20:47.390 --> 20:51.069 It's not the border with the United States that we need to worry about. 20:51.390 --> 20:55.300 If anything, we're more vulnerable to what's coming across that border than they are. 20:56.020 --> 20:57.180 It's the Arctic border. 20:57.920 --> 21:01.819 That we, the Americans, our NATO partners, our NORAD partner, 21:02.310 --> 21:04.910 uh, has to worry about, and there is vulnerability there. 21:05.069 --> 21:08.939 I, I would go so far as to say were it not for the invasion of Ukraine, 21:09.430 --> 21:14.160 the Russians would have a much more visible and menacing presence in the Canadian Arctic. 21:14.910 --> 21:17.459 And so that issue may, may prop up. 21:17.910 --> 21:23.219 I, I also think that Pierre Poliev uh has to really demonstrate. 21:24.239 --> 21:26.930 In a, in a way that, that I think he is capable of, and, 21:27.000 --> 21:29.920 and that is a little more empathy and understanding, uh, 21:30.010 --> 21:35.599 and not be sort of cast as this character of an attack dog, 21:35.680 --> 21:38.359 and, uh, you know, solely a politician. 21:38.760 --> 21:40.400 And I'm gonna share something with you that, you know, 21:40.479 --> 21:43.810 I think will be highlighted. He, uh, you know, 21:43.880 --> 21:47.290 is the son of adopted parents, one of whom which was gay. 21:47.640 --> 21:49.510 He has an autistic child. 21:50.380 --> 21:56.979 And, you know, Pierre is, uh, is somebody who I think has been loathe to sort of open up a 21:56.979 --> 22:02.000 little bit. His wife is uh He is a refugee from, 22:02.130 --> 22:05.930 uh, from Venezuela. So I think they're going to have a hard time 22:05.930 --> 22:10.449 kind of continuing down this road of, you know, he's not an average Canadian, 22:10.530 --> 22:11.719 he's a career politician. 22:11.930 --> 22:15.290 That's part of his career, but don't we want public servants? 22:15.319 --> 22:20.920 I mean, would you say that guy's a, that woman is a career military person or they're a career 22:20.920 --> 22:24.500 technocrat? Oh wait, Mark Carney is a career technocrat. 22:24.810 --> 22:27.319 So, I, I think you're gonna see. 22:27.760 --> 22:32.469 Um, at least I, I expect a shift away from some of the framing, 22:32.560 --> 22:38.239 to use Ed's word, in this campaign, and try to answer some of these questions before they're 22:38.239 --> 22:41.000 posed to them. And the debate is going to be telling. 22:41.040 --> 22:46.079 I, I mean, debates, I think have sort of faded from favor in the last number of years as being 22:46.079 --> 22:47.270 not consequential. 22:47.640 --> 22:50.469 I think it's gonna be very interesting, especially the Quebec debate, 22:51.119 --> 22:54.400 because that's another question. I think that uh all leaders have to be. 22:54.979 --> 22:59.260 Um, pressed on is their ability to communicate directly with Quebecers. 22:59.300 --> 23:05.290 And so, again, there is advantage perhaps Poet, but there's certainly advantage to the block, 23:05.329 --> 23:08.770 and that's another whole problem around national unity, 23:08.810 --> 23:12.060 and I suspect the bigger problem is not Quebec, it's Alberta. 23:13.390 --> 23:15.989 Thanks, Peter. Ed, anything you wanted to add on thoughts on 23:15.989 --> 23:18.189 where the Conservative Party might be heading? 23:19.569 --> 23:22.349 So many thoughts about what Peter said. Well, uh, 23:22.449 --> 23:26.760 I'm gonna, I'll try to constrain my, uh, uh, restrain my enthusiasm here. 23:26.969 --> 23:32.449 You know, um, Let me just start by picking up on, on a theme that ran through a lot of 23:32.449 --> 23:37.469 Peter's comments, which is substance versus attacking or negativity. 23:37.550 --> 23:44.430 Now, our politics has been um largely moved by the negative rather than the 23:44.430 --> 23:47.900 positives for the last couple of decades, probably. 23:48.349 --> 23:53.739 And, uh, and negatives pay off, you know. Negative sentiments towards leaders tend to 23:53.739 --> 23:58.180 correlate more closely to absolute voting intention and positives, 23:58.260 --> 24:01.790 right? And, and it used to be you might be positive 24:01.790 --> 24:05.609 about Pierre Trudeau and Robert Sanfield, but you're only going to vote for one. 24:05.989 --> 24:10.640 Um, but, but as we, as viewpoints are polarized, that's become, 24:10.790 --> 24:14.670 you know, less and less a factor. So, hitting on the negatives, 24:15.030 --> 24:18.150 uh, is, uh, is, you know, one of the main sports of politics. 24:18.270 --> 24:20.430 I think because of the situation we're in. 24:20.969 --> 24:27.079 People want to have substantial conversation, and if you're too negative for too long, 24:27.290 --> 24:30.250 it's going to recoil on you. Some of those messages are good, 24:30.290 --> 24:35.109 so it's a very fine line, you know, because you do need to attack your opponent, 24:35.369 --> 24:38.680 but as Peter said, you don't want to be seen to be an attack dog. 24:38.890 --> 24:45.339 You want to be a dog that's on guard for Canada. You want to be um Lassie or 24:45.589 --> 24:49.780 or uh the littlest hobo, you know, which saved people, you know, 24:49.989 --> 24:53.469 Canadian version, right? Yeah, um, you definitely don't want to be 24:53.469 --> 24:57.650 lassie. You want to be that the audience hobo reference. 24:58.550 --> 25:02.599 Um, so I think Paulev, you know, has to work on, on changing his tone, 25:02.680 --> 25:04.229 you know, um. 25:04.609 --> 25:11.510 You know, Carney also has to, you know, be able to demonstrate an empathy and a 25:11.510 --> 25:15.660 connection, you know, with people and with their real problems. 25:15.750 --> 25:20.819 You know, the affordability challenges that people were facing before we went into this 25:21.150 --> 25:26.199 have not gone away. They've just either been eclipsed by Trump or 25:26.469 --> 25:29.910 attached to Trump and the fears and anxieties that, you know, 25:30.109 --> 25:34.359 Don was a Uh, uh, you know, was speaking to. 25:34.819 --> 25:37.410 And, and the final thing I guess I'll say is that, um, 25:37.619 --> 25:40.060 uh, you know, and this goes to what Don was talking about and, 25:40.130 --> 25:42.609 and, and, uh, at one point, Peter. 25:43.339 --> 25:47.290 But the country has, um, has been economically complacent. 25:47.560 --> 25:51.449 You know, there's, you know, there's, there's no doubt that we have not maximized our 25:51.449 --> 25:52.689 advantages in the world. 25:53.229 --> 25:57.469 You know, if you just take um gas, natural gas is an example, 25:58.040 --> 26:01.489 pardon me, after the invasion of Ukraine, you know, Germany comes here. 26:01.719 --> 26:04.420 They want a natural gas. We go, well why don't we talk about hydrogen in 26:04.420 --> 26:07.670 10 years. Um, uh, you know, Greece wants, 26:07.810 --> 26:11.079 Greece wants a natural gas, Japan wants it, Korea wants it, 26:11.290 --> 26:15.449 and we basically, our allies in the world wanted something from us, 26:15.530 --> 26:17.599 which is a fairly rare thing to happen. 26:17.890 --> 26:23.430 The opportunity to diversify our trade, you know, was presented to us and we were fairly 26:23.430 --> 26:27.280 complacent. So I think now we're into Really interesting 26:27.280 --> 26:31.859 moment because we were suffering as a country from boiling frog syndrome, 26:31.920 --> 26:35.569 a very classic, you know, temperature was going up slightly and slightly, 26:35.579 --> 26:39.680 slightly, and it was just wasn't dramatic enough that we ever brought ourselves to 26:39.680 --> 26:42.030 respond to it, which is a failure of leadership. 26:42.680 --> 26:47.199 Um, but now we, you know, now somebody's taken a blowtorch to the frog. 26:48.400 --> 26:53.869 And now will that galvanize us to really get on with the program, 26:54.160 --> 26:57.310 and I suspect it will, and I suspect both these leaders will be talking about that. 26:57.969 --> 26:59.280 Yeah, thanks, Ed. 26:59.760 --> 27:02.079 Maybe we'll pivot a bit and start talking about, you know, 27:02.119 --> 27:07.969 the challenges awaiting Canada in the in the future of our relationship with the US. 27:08.319 --> 27:13.199 Some would say that the turbulent events of the last six weeks have fundamentally changed the 27:13.199 --> 27:17.880 nature of our relationship, and, and this is something I'd love to hear from all three of 27:17.880 --> 27:22.319 you, but maybe starting with Ed, is there a scenario that sees a return to business as 27:22.319 --> 27:24.479 usual for Canada and the US? 27:26.530 --> 27:31.530 Well, that would be nice, but I don't think it's possible after somebody's come, 27:31.609 --> 27:34.400 after your neighbors come over and punch you in the face 8 times, 27:34.530 --> 27:37.689 you, you know, the garden party that you have, uh, every, 27:37.770 --> 27:42.000 um, uh, May 24 weekend isn't, you know, isn't gonna be on this year. 27:42.329 --> 27:45.119 And, and so trust has been broken. 27:45.530 --> 27:52.189 Hopefully, We will not um do ourselves harm in reacting to that 27:52.189 --> 27:56.300 emotionally, do ourselves any greater harm that has been done upon us already. 27:56.589 --> 28:01.630 You know, I think, um, I think some of the, uh, some of the response and, 28:01.709 --> 28:04.359 and this will be, um, uh, amplified. 28:04.714 --> 28:07.775 in an election season as it was, you know, for Rob Ford, 28:07.974 --> 28:13.574 I'm sorry, for Tug Ford in his election, you know, a lot of the response is playing to the 28:13.574 --> 28:18.775 nationalism that people are feeling, and the nationalism is very good in the sense of giving 28:18.775 --> 28:22.045 us common purpose, building resilience, having us ready. 28:22.569 --> 28:27.270 But it's bad if it limits the political choices and the compromises that may have to be made. 28:27.439 --> 28:31.170 If you have a long-term strategy, if Canada's going to adopt a long-term strategy of being 28:31.170 --> 28:35.520 less dependent on the United States, that will be less dependent on the United States, 28:35.640 --> 28:39.839 not, not closely aligned and related to the United States. 28:40.410 --> 28:47.050 And secondly, in the short to medium term, you know, you just can't move from 78% trade uh uh 28:47.060 --> 28:51.869 uh export reliance to, you know, 50% overnight. In, in 2018, 28:51.979 --> 28:55.969 I, I had said, you know, maybe our goal should be 50/50 in 2050. 28:56.319 --> 29:00.140 And, uh, and, and that'll be a good goal, but we lost seven years on that, 29:00.300 --> 29:05.260 you know, already, and it's, it's hard to imagine being even at 50/50 in, 29:05.270 --> 29:08.420 uh, in, in, in 2050 and don can crack those numbers. 29:08.810 --> 29:10.099 You know, better than I can. 29:10.310 --> 29:16.270 So I don't see, so, uh, so what I worry about is not whether we're gonna return to normal. 29:16.390 --> 29:19.579 I worry about is whether we're gonna embrace abnormal. 29:19.989 --> 29:26.790 And, uh, you know, there's been a sense in the dialogue politically from everybody over the 29:26.790 --> 29:31.829 last, uh, you know, two months that But we have them where we want them. 29:32.420 --> 29:36.670 We have got the leverage, you know, we got that electricity, we've got this, 29:36.790 --> 29:39.329 we've got that, we're gonna dollar for dollar them. 29:39.829 --> 29:45.520 And You know, I guess maybe, you know, again, Premier Ford maybe learned a lesson for all of 29:45.520 --> 29:52.189 us when he, you know, had the threat to turn off the electricity alive and kicking for about, 29:52.400 --> 29:56.510 you know, 16 hours, I think, before he climbed down on that. 29:56.800 --> 30:02.760 We are the weaker party in this, you know, we are dependent on them for about 25% of our. 30:02.890 --> 30:07.369 GDP and they are dependent upon us for about 2% of their GDP. 30:07.640 --> 30:11.079 You know, that's just the way it goes. It doesn't mean that we don't have points of 30:11.079 --> 30:17.920 net leverage, but we do not have net leverage, and so we need to do as well as we can with 30:17.920 --> 30:23.430 the United States for as long as we can while hopefully creating a situation where we're less 30:23.430 --> 30:26.060 dependent than we are today. Good. 30:26.920 --> 30:30.400 Peter, I saw you nodding there on the dollar for dollar comments. 30:30.510 --> 30:34.359 Yeah, I, I think that analysis is spot on, um. 30:35.930 --> 30:40.030 Over the longer term, they have the ability, they, the Americans, 30:40.130 --> 30:44.810 the president has the ability to do severe harm to the Canadian economy. 30:45.689 --> 30:50.119 And it's, it felt good at the time for, uh, for Doug Ford and, 30:50.130 --> 30:54.219 and others to be standing up and we're pulling American liquor off the shelves, 30:54.250 --> 30:57.199 and we're gonna change our procurement strategy. 30:57.449 --> 30:59.780 But it's a bit like wrestling with a grizzly bear. 30:59.969 --> 31:02.130 Feels good and for wow, what a courageous thing to do. 31:02.170 --> 31:03.939 And then you get mauled and eaten. 31:04.609 --> 31:11.479 And so, that is a bit of the, the problem here in deluding ourselves into thinking that we can 31:11.770 --> 31:14.780 trade blows with them over, uh, over the longer term. 31:15.520 --> 31:17.510 Um, but I'm quick to point out. 31:18.199 --> 31:19.489 And and Ed touched on this. 31:20.469 --> 31:22.349 We do have things they need. 31:23.060 --> 31:27.189 And let's not forget the mantra of this president and his administration, 31:27.280 --> 31:30.550 not only this time, but the last time as well, Make America great again. 31:31.560 --> 31:37.699 I would submit that if Donald Trump really intends to build the American economy, 31:37.780 --> 31:41.859 he has much more at his disposal, but he does need certain products. 31:42.000 --> 31:44.420 He needs energy, oil and gas. 31:45.199 --> 31:46.949 Electricity, he needs potash. 31:47.479 --> 31:50.349 He does need Canadian lumber and steel and aluminum. 31:50.599 --> 31:53.680 These are things that you build your economy around and a whole other, 31:53.760 --> 32:00.199 a whole plethora of other Canadian products, plus the goodwill and the collective 32:00.199 --> 32:03.469 security. That has to be achieved around the North 32:03.469 --> 32:08.119 American continent. He does not want to have to spend more money 32:08.119 --> 32:11.750 protecting the Arctic or shoring up borders and coastlines. 32:11.910 --> 32:13.160 He wants us to do it. 32:13.430 --> 32:17.180 And so therein lies an opportunity, and perhaps we can unpack that further. 32:17.430 --> 32:21.579 But to, to play off Ed's uh boiled frog analogy, there's another, 32:21.829 --> 32:25.540 there's another old fable, and that is the scorpion and the frog. 32:26.500 --> 32:29.380 And so, the frog is carrying the scorpion across the river, 32:29.540 --> 32:32.650 and the scorpion spins stings him and sinks them both. 32:32.939 --> 32:34.130 That's what's happening. 32:34.579 --> 32:39.449 We are, it's collective, absolute assured destruction. 32:40.099 --> 32:46.489 If Donald Trump continues to prod and poke and undermine the Canadian economy, 32:46.500 --> 32:48.530 which appears to be what he is doing. 32:48.939 --> 32:52.890 And I for one think that, you know, it may, it may take a few more months, 32:53.060 --> 32:57.729 but there is going to be much bigger issues before this president. 32:58.630 --> 33:02.619 Than attacking his closest neighbor and security provider, 33:02.829 --> 33:09.709 there is no sound reason whatsoever to be doing this and to be ramping up 33:09.709 --> 33:15.300 rhetoric about 501st state and throwing, you know, jabs and insults at the leadership of our 33:15.300 --> 33:16.420 country. None. 33:16.790 --> 33:21.109 And many around him are realizing that and many, and we've seen it in some sectors already 33:21.109 --> 33:22.150 including the auto sector. 33:22.489 --> 33:24.229 And the steel and aluminum sector. 33:24.520 --> 33:26.719 Many of them are now going to him and saying, look, you know, 33:26.839 --> 33:30.280 you won this election because of Michigan and a number of other border states, 33:30.319 --> 33:32.750 and we are the ones that are going to feel the pain first. 33:33.040 --> 33:37.050 Tariffs cut both ways, not to mention the products that they need. 33:37.359 --> 33:41.780 And so, it's tough to say this, but we are going to have to knuckle down and, 33:41.849 --> 33:47.609 and wait this out a little bit without getting drawn into a complete firefight that we cannot 33:47.609 --> 33:51.609 win. Oh, I know you've been doing a lot of thinking 33:51.609 --> 33:55.040 on the future of tariffs. Your perspective, uh, 33:55.050 --> 33:59.319 on the future economic policy and, and relationship of Canada and the US. 34:00.500 --> 34:04.750 Yeah, I mean, Peter's point, uh, there are things that we, 34:05.239 --> 34:08.979 we send to them because they do need them, um, and to say, 34:09.020 --> 34:12.350 oh, we're just gonna, we're gonna make a full car in the US. 34:12.919 --> 34:17.429 OK, it can happen, but it's gonna take time, it's gonna take money, 34:17.679 --> 34:20.379 and it's gonna be more expensive for US consumers. 34:20.399 --> 34:25.360 And one of his platforms or planks was that, hey, I'm gonna reduce prices. 34:25.399 --> 34:28.000 You're not going to worry about that pesky old inflation anymore. 34:28.080 --> 34:31.639 This is all gonna go away because it's gonna be under our control. 34:31.649 --> 34:38.600 And clearly, if you're adding this tax, this is going to increase consumer prices at 34:38.600 --> 34:41.669 some point. I mean, companies might absorb it for a little 34:41.669 --> 34:45.040 bit. But over time, they absolutely will be passing 34:45.040 --> 34:49.330 that down to the consumers. So to the extent that You know, 34:49.560 --> 34:51.469 the Trump administration is trying to say. 34:52.379 --> 34:54.780 It's OK. We, we, we, we've got this. 34:54.929 --> 34:58.010 Don't worry about it. We don't need Pi said, we don't need your 34:58.010 --> 34:59.919 lumber. We don't need your water. 35:00.330 --> 35:05.370 We know they need a lot of these things, and it is causing political friction for them. 35:05.449 --> 35:11.040 You even look at Indexes similar to the Canadian story on these confidence measures, 35:11.129 --> 35:14.439 confidence measures in the US tanking, you know, we haven't, 35:14.479 --> 35:17.350 the University of Michigan puts out this consumer confidence index. 35:17.600 --> 35:21.659 It has fallen. We've seen expectations of inflation rise. 35:22.080 --> 35:27.000 All that does is really put downward pressure on the economy over time. 35:27.120 --> 35:31.510 So to the extent that The US is saying, well, you know, 35:31.669 --> 35:36.340 Canada, they're, you know, the little one in the, yes, 35:36.429 --> 35:39.860 we absolutely are the little one in this relationship, but having said that, 35:40.149 --> 35:46.229 still necessary, and I do think that over time, there will continue to be intensification of 35:46.229 --> 35:50.100 pressure on an industry by industry basis to say, OK, 35:50.270 --> 35:54.340 well, like, could we accept them and is this another exemption we should put in? 35:54.830 --> 35:56.100 It waters it down. 35:56.419 --> 35:59.100 But also, I think, you know, for the Canadian nationalists, you know, 35:59.179 --> 36:04.379 a lot of it is this 51st state idea. People are fired up to say at the very least, 36:04.459 --> 36:09.379 that this is not the type of conversation partners should be having. 36:09.459 --> 36:13.540 It should be more of a, you know, we'll give a little bit here and you give a little bit there, 36:13.550 --> 36:19.179 and we know there are certain issues which are grievances that the US has had with Canada for 36:19.179 --> 36:22.340 a long time. Maybe we can address those through 36:22.340 --> 36:28.719 renegotiation of CuSA, but I don't, you know, I, again, probably not gonna go back to that same 36:28.719 --> 36:32.840 relationship that we had prior to this, but again, to Ed's point, 36:33.010 --> 36:38.239 can we navigate this such that the 15 free trade agreements we have, 36:38.300 --> 36:44.899 which access 1.6 billion consumers, can we pivot a bit to get those 77% of our 36:44.899 --> 36:47.780 exports going south of the border to something lower? 36:48.739 --> 36:52.770 And continue along that train to our 50/50 and 2050. 36:54.290 --> 36:56.479 Shannon, can I pick up on something really quickly? 36:56.629 --> 37:00.800 I, I think on the trade discussion, and I think we've to, 37:00.909 --> 37:06.469 to a large degree neutralized the initial salvo about fentanyl and, 37:06.560 --> 37:08.320 and problems at the border. We, we, you know, 37:08.399 --> 37:11.120 we took that seriously. I give credit to the government for having done 37:11.120 --> 37:12.739 so and, and did it quickly. 37:13.659 --> 37:17.969 If we were to propose, if Mark Carney, for example, was to propose, 37:18.100 --> 37:19.780 let's accelerate the discussion. 37:20.510 --> 37:24.520 Uh, on free trade. Let's bring it to a formal sit down in 37:24.520 --> 37:29.469 Washington and let's get on with this rather than trading shots through the media, 37:29.919 --> 37:33.550 where rhetoric gets in the way and, and emotion. 37:34.040 --> 37:37.399 I, I personally think that would put us in a better place. 37:37.479 --> 37:41.360 I also think on the 2% NATO, which will be the next, uh, 37:41.479 --> 37:44.510 you know, coat hook that he's going to hit us with. 37:45.129 --> 37:50.159 This is also, uh, an area where playing off, uh, the illusion to, 37:50.290 --> 37:55.239 we can do more with the Americans. We, we can actually use this almost like a judo 37:55.239 --> 37:58.250 move and take their momentum and flip it and say, look, 37:58.449 --> 38:01.959 you, you want to do something to improve the, the security of North America? 38:02.290 --> 38:04.959 We're all in. We're willing to buy submarines. 38:05.040 --> 38:09.030 We're willing to buy fighter aircraft and put a missile defense system in place, 38:09.159 --> 38:12.719 which, by the way, those 3 items alone would get us to 2% or darn close. 38:12.879 --> 38:15.030 Our biggest problem is we don't have the personnel. 38:15.320 --> 38:17.590 We don't have the pilots or the people to put on the ground. 38:17.959 --> 38:21.590 That's another issue. But I, I think we have to a little bit, 38:21.889 --> 38:26.330 you know, show that we're going on the offensive, but we're doing it on positive 38:26.330 --> 38:27.959 things that are going to help America. 38:28.250 --> 38:31.540 And if, if the president doesn't see it, Americans will. 38:31.969 --> 38:37.000 And those institutional connections and connective tissue generally with Americans, 38:37.070 --> 38:41.290 I think, will start to cause internal pressure for this president. 38:42.639 --> 38:48.350 Um, Shannon, if I could also just, uh, uh, you know, build on that because I think these are, 38:48.879 --> 38:52.739 I think are important points. It's, it's hard for me to see the process of 38:52.739 --> 38:58.100 getting to them in some ways and uh because trust has been broken because we sort of now 38:58.739 --> 39:05.270 understand, if we didn't before that any agreement we have can be ignored totally and 39:05.270 --> 39:08.419 arbitrarily at any moment possible. Having said that, 39:09.090 --> 39:15.929 There, if Trump can bring himself to understand that um that North 39:15.929 --> 39:20.889 America can be an extraordinary powerhouse together and that augments, 39:20.969 --> 39:24.879 as Peter was suggesting, the power of the United States and the world. 39:25.090 --> 39:30.209 You know, together, we produce more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia, 39:30.290 --> 39:32.840 or as much oil as Saudi Arabia and Russia together. 39:33.820 --> 39:38.209 Um, together we have extraordinary reserves of uh of, 39:38.219 --> 39:40.780 of critical minerals, which the United States does not have by itself. 39:40.899 --> 39:47.179 Together, we have in Canada the uranium that they wouldn't have to rely on Russia and 39:47.179 --> 39:53.929 Kazakhstan should Trump fall out of his kind of strange romance that he has going with Russia. 39:54.459 --> 39:57.815 But, you know, that might happen, but You know, if, if it's not, 39:58.085 --> 40:01.805 you know, Russia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan for where for your uranium, 40:01.845 --> 40:04.966 then it's Canada. And, you know, Peter spoke about, 40:05.045 --> 40:08.686 you know, you know, Potash, it's Canada or Belarus, you know, 40:09.446 --> 40:12.845 essentially. I mean, there's a lot of choices like that. 40:13.085 --> 40:18.016 The Arctic defense is clearly one of those. There's places where we could be doing things 40:18.016 --> 40:22.162 together. To the mutual benefit of both countries for, 40:22.312 --> 40:26.812 for sure, but that will help make America greater. 40:27.112 --> 40:31.041 Uh, um, I, I'll just go to MAG, uh, and not the whole full MGA, 40:31.552 --> 40:33.981 um, because I think, you know, the United States has always been, 40:34.112 --> 40:38.981 uh, uh, you know, pretty great a country probably since the late 1800s and certainly 40:38.981 --> 40:40.342 since the Second World War. 40:40.791 --> 40:44.312 So, um, so I think that's important that we think that, 40:44.431 --> 40:48.352 uh, keep that in mind, how we might do it with this president. 40:48.889 --> 40:53.360 And Canadian public opinion, you know, which, uh, which is justified, 40:53.489 --> 40:57.290 you know, to this president is, is kind of a bit harder to figure, 40:57.409 --> 41:01.989 but, you know, that's why we have leaders. OK. 41:04.159 --> 41:08.429 Maybe um narrowing and focusing on what we can do in Canada, 41:08.760 --> 41:14.239 Don, and looking at internal trade, what do you think the most important steps are that Canada 41:14.239 --> 41:21.040 can take to solidify our economic position and how much of an impact can interprovincial trade 41:21.040 --> 41:24.560 have? And then the other piece I think I would ask 41:24.560 --> 41:29.760 you is, you know, what are businesses expecting from provincial and federal governments in this 41:29.760 --> 41:31.280 regard and what's been holding us back? 41:33.709 --> 41:38.010 Yeah, I, you know, I think for businesses it's kind of three things, 41:38.129 --> 41:41.610 right? We've got cyclical factors which until recently 41:41.610 --> 41:45.919 inflation was quite under control, but again, inflation relatively under control, 41:46.290 --> 41:49.729 interest rates going lower. So an operating environment, 41:50.090 --> 41:53.879 which, um, you know, it's better than what we have had. 41:54.600 --> 41:58.679 And we have external factors, which is, you know, what's our relationship to the rest of 41:58.679 --> 42:02.879 the world and clearly here, this is where we're on rocky territory. 42:02.919 --> 42:06.239 And then we have within our country, our structural, you know, 42:06.439 --> 42:07.760 makeup. What does that look like? 42:08.110 --> 42:11.919 And I think, you know, whether it's companies looking to shift their supply chains, 42:12.159 --> 42:18.870 shift their export markets, and some support from government coming um whether it's the EDC 42:19.239 --> 42:25.679 um dollars going towards helping companies explore different relationships, 42:25.800 --> 42:31.389 different exporting destinations for their goods and reducing interprovincial trade 42:31.389 --> 42:33.229 barriers. I mean, you know, lots have been, 42:33.360 --> 42:35.830 lots of ink has been spilled on this issue. 42:36.229 --> 42:40.399 Uh, it does appear from everything we're hearing and reading that. 42:41.169 --> 42:45.419 You know, we've had her come to Jesus. We are now looking at getting rid of a lot of 42:45.419 --> 42:52.399 these things that are impediments to just the best use of our capital and our labor. 42:52.620 --> 42:56.939 Um, you know, you need that ability to increase your efficiency and your productivity. 42:57.300 --> 43:04.090 You can't create all these layers of Different licensing that it just impedes the process and 43:04.090 --> 43:08.010 over time, it just deteriorates uh the value. So I think, 43:08.169 --> 43:11.800 you know, we have, everybody's crunched the numbers. 43:11.810 --> 43:18.699 Um, a study we did in 2021 at Deloitte that this acts as a 7% tariff. 43:19.169 --> 43:22.610 On trade between the countries, which always just kind of blows me away a little bit because 43:22.610 --> 43:24.790 we're constantly talking about tariffs and then going, oh wait, 43:24.959 --> 43:29.560 we do that to ourselves, um, could add up to 4% to GDP. 43:29.889 --> 43:34.129 I mean. These are material changes that can actually 43:34.129 --> 43:35.560 just be made. 43:35.770 --> 43:38.649 The other thing is looking at, you know, how do we look at the tax system? 43:38.689 --> 43:44.129 How do we create an environment where there's favorable tax incentives for these businesses? 43:44.209 --> 43:50.330 I mean, we've been banging on about this productivity challenge for many decades, 43:50.409 --> 43:56.649 and yet, it's a slow moving. Machines. So how can the governments at this moment, 43:56.760 --> 43:59.070 you know, this is the moment, let's just do this. 43:59.239 --> 44:03.909 And again, as I said earlier, none of this is quick nor easy nor cheap, 44:04.280 --> 44:08.939 but we do have to figure it out, and I think this may have been In a very perverse way, 44:09.139 --> 44:13.699 a catalyst to, to taking these actions. And I think that's what companies, 44:13.820 --> 44:15.489 you know, when you're talking to them, they're like, OK, 44:15.659 --> 44:19.229 so like how are we gonna play this, how are we gonna move up the curve? 44:19.610 --> 44:23.050 I think these are some of the ideas that they've been talking about, 44:23.060 --> 44:24.860 we've been talking about for a long time. 44:25.949 --> 44:31.080 I'm going to be a little more impolite and say this is a kick in the ass for Canada that is 44:31.080 --> 44:36.820 causing us to stand up and take notice that we're out of step with the world in our tax 44:36.820 --> 44:42.879 system, our, our punitive approach, I say attack to small businesses. 44:43.409 --> 44:47.429 Um, disincentivizing risk. I mentioned, you know, 44:47.629 --> 44:53.709 direct foreign investment, but look, we need an energy corridor or an economic corridor across 44:53.709 --> 44:56.870 the country, which is in keeping with the breaking down of, 44:56.949 --> 45:00.469 of interprovincial trade barriers. Little old Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are 45:00.469 --> 45:02.790 not talking about it anymore. They're actually doing it. 45:03.189 --> 45:06.709 They're, uh, they're taking bold steps and, and uh some of the bigger provinces, 45:06.909 --> 45:12.550 they've got to take a less protective approach to sharing the prosperity of the country. 45:12.949 --> 45:16.070 You know, our premier was down in, in uh Boston this week, 45:16.120 --> 45:19.350 in spite of all the pressures saying, look, we want to work with you. 45:19.520 --> 45:21.110 We've got more in common with you. 45:21.320 --> 45:25.760 The other thing I, I think we really need to do is capitalize on some of the existing free 45:25.760 --> 45:29.370 trade agreements that we have with the European Union, for example. 45:29.520 --> 45:31.879 That's a massive $1 trillion economy. 45:32.360 --> 45:35.889 That doesn't, you know, mirror or replace the United States, 45:35.979 --> 45:39.550 but it sure does open up an opportunity that other countries don't, 45:39.810 --> 45:42.979 including America. Same with the Trans-Pacific Partnership. 45:43.209 --> 45:45.840 We're there first. We have that first mover advantage. 45:46.239 --> 45:51.030 But back to energy, I mean, Ed's right. We have countries lining up saying, 45:51.399 --> 45:54.949 give us access to liquefied natural gas. It's not the panacea, 45:55.199 --> 45:57.429 but we're gonna be using it for the next 50 years. 45:57.639 --> 46:02.010 Same with critical minerals. How can we bang on about uh electrification and 46:02.010 --> 46:04.129 batteries when we're leaving it in the ground? 46:04.409 --> 46:08.350 And countries that want to come here and invest and take part in our extraction industry, 46:08.560 --> 46:09.989 they're saying it's, it's impossible. 46:10.199 --> 46:12.120 You can't put a shovel in the ground in Canada. 46:12.500 --> 46:16.330 And so that reputation is out there. It's gonna take a little while to turn it 46:16.330 --> 46:20.120 around, but it's leaning in, it's sending the message. 46:20.330 --> 46:23.780 It's getting out there. It's letting Canadians do what they do best and 46:23.780 --> 46:27.050 engage reputationally with our friends, our real friends, 46:27.330 --> 46:30.250 and say, we want to do business with you. And what do you need? 46:30.370 --> 46:33.280 What products do you need and what do we need? Let's get back at it. 46:33.370 --> 46:36.770 The fact that we don't have a free trade agreement with the United Kingdom is appalling. 46:37.709 --> 46:40.189 Just appalling. They were part of the European Union, 46:40.229 --> 46:42.699 of course, when the CETA was put in place. 46:43.110 --> 46:46.989 But now, they've been sitting there for 10 years, they're having their own economic 46:46.989 --> 46:50.949 problems. You know, we should be absolutely working, 46:51.149 --> 46:54.790 you know, cheek and jowl, as the Brits would say, to get to that agreement. 46:56.479 --> 47:00.320 Shannon, I, I, I, um, well, I'm, I'm, I'm very interested in this and I, 47:00.350 --> 47:04.620 I, I had a, uh, an op ed in the um Star earlier in the week, 47:04.989 --> 47:09.510 um, kind of counseling Carney as he's going to, as he was going to Europe to, 47:09.520 --> 47:15.669 you know, do exactly this, build on the TPP, build on uh our relationship both with the 47:15.669 --> 47:18.110 European. Union, but you know, with the NATO countries in 47:18.110 --> 47:22.560 uh in, in Europe, uh, uh, you know, more generally, and, 47:22.709 --> 47:26.860 and that, you know, there's a rule book that we all need to, 47:27.189 --> 47:31.280 those of us who want to still believe in rules and rule books, 47:31.429 --> 47:35.189 you know, need to get together and we don't actually have to write it because it's all 47:35.189 --> 47:37.830 written. It's all there and, you know, it's there, 47:38.030 --> 47:41.310 particularly even the TPP is an interesting element cause it's, 47:41.370 --> 47:45.709 you know, Pacific Rim countries, but it's open to other countries and the United Kingdom was 47:45.709 --> 47:50.790 already ascended into the TPP. It's the first non-original country to come 47:50.790 --> 47:51.850 into the TPP. 47:52.110 --> 47:54.830 So, you know, that could be a basis of doing it. 47:55.070 --> 47:58.699 I just want to kind of talk off a little bit about the kick in the pants, 47:58.830 --> 48:03.179 I will say, cause I don't have the same license as an honorable person. 48:03.469 --> 48:08.669 Um. It, you know, we had this kick once before and 48:08.840 --> 48:14.679 we rose to the occasion and the kick occurred in 1866 when the United States abrogated a 48:14.679 --> 48:19.629 reciprocity treaty with Canada and it was kind of, you know, 48:19.909 --> 48:23.800 the Fathers of Confederation were doing their work, but they weren't at the finish line, 48:23.879 --> 48:27.149 just like Canada has trouble today getting to the finish line. 48:27.659 --> 48:32.080 But that got their attention and they realized we need to build an economic union. 48:32.550 --> 48:37.429 Uh, we need to complete this talk that we're having and then followed by a national policy, 48:37.469 --> 48:41.949 which is kind of the equivalent industrial policy, doesn't have to be only national, 48:42.070 --> 48:45.209 but it has to be a very purposeful sense of, you know, 48:45.389 --> 48:47.750 how you're going to grow and diversify. 48:48.379 --> 48:49.649 Uh, your economy. 48:49.860 --> 48:56.659 So in 1866, they did this, and I think we don't want to lose the impetus that's been 48:56.659 --> 48:59.610 given to us here and it could happen, you know, we could, 48:59.659 --> 49:04.540 you know, you know, there's a reason why interprovincial trade barriers have remained so 49:04.540 --> 49:07.659 resistant. There's just so many interests and so many 49:07.659 --> 49:09.459 microinter interests at stake. 49:09.860 --> 49:13.620 Now we have a macro matter and we just got it right over that. 49:14.500 --> 49:19.219 I'm not questioning it's grasp of history, but the American Civil War had a lot to do with 49:19.219 --> 49:23.229 accelerating the formation of Canada as well. They, uh, 49:23.500 --> 49:27.020 they obviously were looking at Canada with hungry eyes in those days too, 49:27.100 --> 49:31.699 and manifest Destiny was the talk. But a more recent example is COVID, 49:32.219 --> 49:37.419 where we, again, were forced to come to the uncomfortable realization that we didn't make 49:37.419 --> 49:38.860 enough things, essential things. 49:39.229 --> 49:43.989 That we require in Canadian society, masks, medical garb, 49:44.270 --> 49:47.270 respirators. But there were some very innovative Canadian 49:47.270 --> 49:51.989 businesses and owners and risk takers that pivoted and were able to start manufacturing 49:51.989 --> 49:54.070 things. Like, I, I'm old enough to remember we had a 49:54.070 --> 49:55.699 little farm here in Nova Scotia. 49:55.919 --> 49:59.780 We had a Massey Ferguson tractor, we had a Pioneer chainsaw, 49:59.830 --> 50:01.500 we had an Evin Root outboard motor. 50:01.780 --> 50:03.500 None of those things are made in Canada now. 50:03.709 --> 50:07.699 I mean, that's crazy. We could be manufacturing so much more, 50:07.830 --> 50:12.300 but we've stood, we, the government has stood in the way of a lot of those businesses, 50:12.590 --> 50:17.429 not only providing Canadians, but finding new export markets for Canadian products. 50:17.590 --> 50:20.310 We've kind of, you know, I, I agree with Ed. We've been complacent. 50:20.429 --> 50:24.590 We've been just sort of resting on our laurels, saying we're everybody's friend, 50:24.870 --> 50:26.750 everybody, the world needs more Canada. 50:27.639 --> 50:29.149 Not so. Bull roar. 50:29.280 --> 50:32.120 The world doesn't need more Canada. They need more Canadian products. 50:33.679 --> 50:37.790 They don't need lectures, and they don't need righteousness, and they don't need to be told 50:37.790 --> 50:42.149 that, look at us, our economy is doing so well because we put a carbon tax in place. 50:42.479 --> 50:43.989 That hasn't worked out well for us. 50:45.100 --> 50:50.070 Peter, on that, you know, Canada's reputation, maybe zooming back out a bit, 50:50.199 --> 50:52.629 uh, in terms of our place in the world. 50:53.199 --> 51:00.159 Um, and there seems to be, you know, uh, consensus that international affairs are the 51:00.159 --> 51:02.590 most tumultuous since the Second World War. 51:03.100 --> 51:08.830 And should Canada's role evolve in global institutions in response to the US's departure, 51:08.870 --> 51:12.669 so in things like NATO, UN, World Health Organization, etc. 51:13.110 --> 51:16.510 and what about our participation in those kinds of organizations? 51:17.800 --> 51:23.239 Uh, I would say yes, some, some organizations, certainly NATO and NORAD. 51:23.570 --> 51:25.159 I would like to see us in August. 51:25.929 --> 51:30.020 Uh, with respect to, uh, our ability to contribute in the Asia Pacific, 51:30.149 --> 51:35.850 I would like to see us up our game with respect to the five eyes and being able to be a net 51:37.219 --> 51:41.300 importer of intelligence as opposed to simply drawing it out. 51:41.389 --> 51:44.459 And there was a time not that long ago when we were. 51:45.060 --> 51:48.010 And look, I'm not harkening back to the good old days, 51:48.100 --> 51:54.209 but, you know, Canada came out of Afghanistan as difficult and as Ultimately 51:54.489 --> 51:56.800 disappointing, to say the least, that that mission was, 51:56.889 --> 51:58.649 but our reputation was intact. 51:59.370 --> 52:03.120 You know, I, I can say that from the very privileged vantage point that I held. 52:03.780 --> 52:07.010 That our Canadian soldiers more than distinguished themselves, 52:07.139 --> 52:11.419 not because they fought like Americans or Brits, but because they fought like Canadians. 52:12.159 --> 52:15.159 They were warriors with hearts who cared about the local people. 52:15.239 --> 52:20.389 They were liberators in every sense of the word, the same way they were on the beaches of 52:20.389 --> 52:23.919 Normandy. And they went there, so, why? 52:23.929 --> 52:26.320 I got asked all the time in the House of Commons and the committee, 52:26.399 --> 52:32.560 why, why is Canada in Afghanistan? Well, Article 5 was the short answer because of 52:32.560 --> 52:36.870 our, our participation in that important global security apparatus. 52:37.159 --> 52:39.669 But we're there because we want little girls to go to school. 52:40.379 --> 52:44.709 And we want people to be able to grow crops other than poppy because they have a gun to 52:44.709 --> 52:47.389 their head. And we want to be able to help them build their 52:47.389 --> 52:52.030 own infrastructure and vote and change their government without the sound of a gun. 52:52.080 --> 52:55.669 Those are values that are worth fighting for that go back again, 52:55.830 --> 53:01.909 not, not to be too romantic about it, but those were important contributions that Canada has 53:01.909 --> 53:04.020 made and, and continues to make. 53:04.310 --> 53:07.030 But we have severely diminished our ability to do so, 53:07.110 --> 53:10.540 Shannon. I mean, I, I for one believe very strongly we 53:10.540 --> 53:14.290 should be supporting Ukraine and giving them all we can because every, 53:14.419 --> 53:18.060 you know, every Russian that they push out of their country is somebody we're not going to 53:18.060 --> 53:19.929 have to fight ourselves in the future. 53:20.179 --> 53:25.139 And so, but where we have fallen down is we haven't replaced our stores. 53:25.419 --> 53:28.879 We sent them armored cars, we sent them long-range guns, 53:28.889 --> 53:30.870 and we don't have them anymore. 53:31.699 --> 53:34.969 And some of them were already pretty beat up coming out of Afghanistan, 53:35.219 --> 53:36.500 but we can make a lot of that. 53:36.979 --> 53:38.580 We can make ammunition. 53:39.060 --> 53:42.979 We can make the type of equipment that will serve our interests to some degree, 53:43.060 --> 53:45.620 or we can be parts of global supply chains. 53:46.239 --> 53:50.310 That we're actually cooperating with Sweden, new member of NATO, 53:50.500 --> 53:56.239 with other countries, the UK, parts of Europe, we can absolutely refurbish our own stores and 53:56.239 --> 53:58.989 ability to contribute mightily in the world. 53:59.239 --> 54:04.929 And so those institutional memories, muscle memories, I think are important, 54:05.040 --> 54:07.840 Shannon. So yes, we should up our game in terms of 54:07.840 --> 54:13.149 working with countries we know we can rely on and countries that can rely on us. 54:14.080 --> 54:18.810 You know, uh, Shannon, uh, in this past week, one of the, 54:18.959 --> 54:22.770 uh, less reported things that occurred is that, you know, 54:22.919 --> 54:26.209 Canada and France agreed to, uh, intelligence sharing. 54:26.489 --> 54:31.719 Now France is not in the five eyes, and, uh, and so that's a 54:31.719 --> 54:36.385 diversification of our. Relations, but, uh, you know, 54:36.706 --> 54:40.395 maybe just starting, you know, starting up of uh of, 54:40.426 --> 54:41.545 of that kind of thing. 54:41.746 --> 54:43.976 I think there's a lot of places where this can happen. 54:44.105 --> 54:49.176 I certainly, uh, wouldn't want to venture too far onto the defense plane, 54:49.506 --> 54:53.256 uh, with, you know, somebody who has Peter's expertise here, 54:53.545 --> 54:59.701 but all Of the Arctic countries now, other than, of course, 54:59.731 --> 55:01.201 Russia are in NATO. 55:01.412 --> 55:06.481 That wasn't true before the invasion of Ukraine, but it is true today, 55:06.812 --> 55:10.382 and we should be cooperating with them on joint, you know, 55:10.572 --> 55:17.291 on an extension into the Arctic of NATO, and if the United States at some point wants to join 55:17.291 --> 55:20.770 in on that. You know, which of course, at the moment they 55:20.770 --> 55:25.340 join and they beat the leader, you know, and I think that would be attractive to them, 55:25.649 --> 55:28.689 you know, then, then we can do that. So I think there are all kinds of places where 55:28.689 --> 55:34.360 we could be part of some expanded relationships that are international, 55:34.729 --> 55:38.290 whether we lead them or not, in trade for sure, but, you know, 55:38.370 --> 55:41.840 even, even in the, uh, you know, in the security and other realms. 55:42.280 --> 55:46.100 And two that deserve honorable mention of very quick intervention are Australia and New 55:46.100 --> 55:47.889 Zealand, who are in the Five Eyes. 55:48.199 --> 55:53.780 And, and Australia with respect to Aus, they can share a lot of information when it comes to 55:53.780 --> 55:57.699 another whole other subject matter, and that is dealing with China because they're on the move 55:57.699 --> 56:00.699 too. They're watching very closely what America is 56:00.699 --> 56:04.689 doing, and they're watching what they're not doing with respect to Ukraine and, 56:04.699 --> 56:06.540 uh, and waiting for their moment to pounce. 56:07.949 --> 56:12.510 Well, I know we could continue this great discussion on these topics for the afternoon, 56:12.550 --> 56:19.469 but maybe I will just ask you quick fire around on either your election prediction 56:19.469 --> 56:23.459 or if you're not comfortable doing that, your last word, 56:24.189 --> 56:30.459 start with you, Peter. Conservative win Um, I think there's a silent 56:30.459 --> 56:34.939 majority, as Ronald Reagan used to say out there that are looking for change, 56:35.020 --> 56:38.090 you know. If you have, uh, if you have a change, 56:38.179 --> 56:42.300 you don't, uh, change your shoes, you change the whole outfit. 56:42.820 --> 56:45.939 Um, and so I think that that may happen, and, uh, you know, 56:46.060 --> 56:48.459 but it'll depend on a strong, a strong campaign. 56:48.860 --> 56:51.530 I think we, obviously, we've touched on this numerous times, 56:51.699 --> 56:56.419 becoming less dependent on the United States and diversifying our approach to both economy 56:56.419 --> 56:59.300 and security. And up our game. 56:59.479 --> 57:04.030 Uh, our home game as far as security, productivity, economic performance, 57:04.360 --> 57:05.590 uh, has been lagging. 57:06.159 --> 57:10.000 So, I, I would say, you know, buckle up our seatbelts, pull up our socks, 57:10.080 --> 57:15.879 however you want to put it, but, uh, put Canada first and more emphasis in particular on, 57:15.979 --> 57:17.389 uh, on what we do well. 57:17.639 --> 57:21.030 And, uh, we're the 3rd largest energy and reserve in the world. 57:21.120 --> 57:28.090 Let's act like it. Oh Well, yes, I'm a coward. 57:28.250 --> 57:32.760 I'm not weighing in. Um, but what I would say is it is, 57:32.889 --> 57:39.330 you know, it is a moment to all of our anxiety, like, let's just put it into action. 57:39.409 --> 57:43.810 So increasing infrastructure across the country, like really doing the things. 57:44.399 --> 57:48.350 Extensive, far, time-consuming, but really leaning into it. 57:48.360 --> 57:51.840 It is our moment, and it would be great to think, you know, 57:51.959 --> 57:57.520 in 2025 years and look back and go, wow, that was our moment and we really did it. 57:57.679 --> 58:00.479 We really upped the game. We know we cannot, 58:00.719 --> 58:03.719 we're small. I mean, we're a big country and a small 58:03.719 --> 58:08.159 population, so we know we can't do everything alone as Um, 58:08.209 --> 58:12.810 both that Peter and Ed said, you know, we need to have relationships and we need to get the 58:12.810 --> 58:16.919 right relationships in place to achieve this, but I do think it is, 58:17.040 --> 58:21.830 um, our moment. So, Even though I'm scared every day when I 58:21.830 --> 58:26.939 look at the news, I'm still have this optimism that we're gonna get through it. 58:27.939 --> 58:31.489 Appreciate it. So as far as a prediction goes, 58:31.570 --> 58:36.620 you know, uh A as a resolute nonpartisan, I'm not making uh predictions, 58:36.810 --> 58:39.639 but B, as a, as an observer of politics for many years, 58:39.729 --> 58:41.000 you know, campaigns matter. 58:41.330 --> 58:46.280 Uh, we've seen, um, winners of campaigns before campaigns started. 58:46.600 --> 58:50.969 Uh, it looks like Kim Campbell was going to win the 1993 election before that campaign started. 58:51.050 --> 58:52.959 That's not how it turned out at all. 58:53.739 --> 58:59.899 Um, and, and in, you know, the 1988 free trade campaign, there was a point where John Turner 59:00.550 --> 59:04.020 made a march up the hill after the debate, and then, uh, 59:04.030 --> 59:07.419 as, uh, as they said in the conservative strategy room, 59:07.429 --> 59:11.340 they bombed the bridge and, uh, and they bombed it quite successfully. 59:12.149 --> 59:19.050 What I will say is that I'm looking forward and think that we're gonna have a more 59:19.050 --> 59:25.139 substantive Uh, and in its own way uplifting because it will be substantive campaign about 59:25.139 --> 59:30.820 standing up for Canada and what that really looks like and a little less of the tangential 59:31.139 --> 59:35.260 negativity tearing down. I think this is a campaign of a building this 59:35.260 --> 59:37.010 country, and I think that's a great thing. 59:38.149 --> 59:41.750 Well, thank you, Ed, Dawn, and Peter. I will not make a prediction. 59:41.790 --> 59:45.949 I will just say this conversation has given me the strong desire and hope that we will see the 59:45.949 --> 59:50.379 littlest hobo as a mascot on the campaign trail, uh, this season. 59:50.699 --> 59:53.350 Uh, but thank you all for your insights and your passion, 59:53.590 --> 59:55.939 energy, and commitment to a prosperous Canada. 59:56.199 --> 59:59.939 Uh, I, I know on behalf of the audience and participants today, 01:00:00.030 --> 01:00:01.350 really appreciate your time. 01:00:01.590 --> 01:00:05.020 Thank you for those who have joined us, uh, and we look forward to the next time. 01:00:05.189 --> 01:00:07.459 Have a wonderful afternoon. Take care. 01:00:07.840 --> 01:00:08.239 Thank you.