2026 banking and capital markets outlook

• How could the macroeconomic realities in 2026 impact the banking and capital markets industry’s revenues and profitability?
• What does the disruptive entrance of stablecoins mean for banks and payment firms?
• What should banks do in 2026 to industrialize AI at scale?
• Will some banks’ AI ambitions be thwarted by their brittle and fragmented data infrastructure?
• Can banks’ defenses keep up with the increasing speed and sophistication of financial crime?
  

2026 appears to be shaping up as a defining year for US banks. Macroeconomic uncertainty, diverging consumer sentiment, and persistent inflation could test banks’ revenues and profitability, even as strong capital positions provide resilience. Banks could be forced to defend margins, diversify fee income, and prepare for increased competition from nonbank entities.

Meanwhile, AI is at an inflection point. Many banks are under pressure to scale and move beyond pilots, but 2026 will likely demand robust, enterprise-level strategies, governance, and a disciplined approach to return on investment. Agentic AI offers breakthrough potential, but only if supported by AI-ready data—accurate, timely, broad, and securely governed. Without this data foundation, even the most ambitious models could stall.

Separately, financial crime risks are escalating, fueled by AI-enabled fraud, sanctions complexity, and rising costs. Integrated, tech-driven defenses are imperative.

This report offers potential prescriptions for banks in the above areas. The leaders who act decisively in 2026 may shape the future of banking.