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Analysis of the Trinidad & Tobago National Budget 2024/2025

Message from the Managing Partner, Rikhi Rampersad

 

The world of business continues to evolve and shift, impacted by various international developments and the rise of technological and digital innovations.  There has been a decline in global oil prices since April 2024, with the current international price at the lowest level since 2022. Supply chain demand and supply factors, and critical commodities also fluctuate given the ongoing geo-political factors occurring today across Asia, North America, Europe and the Middle East. International inflation has started to show signs of deceleration in U.S. and European markets, which could augur well for business trade in the short and medium-term.

The advancement in technologies such as Generative AI (GenAI), Cloud transformation and ERP systems, offer opportunity for increased productivity through innovation in devising business strategy for competitive advantage. These need to be adopted with a mindset to safeguard risks and build trust within processes, given the increase of cyber attacks on Caribbean private and public sector entities.

Today’s Caribbean business needs to understand and review the impact of these global trends on operations in making decisions. Additionally, consideration in strategy development of the triple bottom line – People, Prosperity and Planet given societal demands and regulatory trends is important.

In addition to the fiscal measures referenced in the 2024/2025 budget and the growth in the Heritage and Stabilization Fund, we have seen a strong emphasis on societal development – educational and entrepreneurship initiatives.  The non-oil and gas sectors have continued to grow to make significant contribution to the national GDP. These sectors should continue to take advantage of innovation, technology and trade opportunities available, while making strategic choices for continued growth. 

The 2024/2025 National Budget was delivered on 30 September 2024 by the Honourable Minister of Finance, Mr. Colm Imbert. 

Economic Overview

Summary of the key economic indicators for Trinidad and Tobago over the past 5 years, with a comparison to pre-COVID figures and references to the latest fiscal government budget (2023-2024):

Pre-COVID (2019): The economy experienced modest growth, with GDP increasing by around 0.4% (Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, 2024).

COVID-19 Impact (2020): The pandemic led to a significant contraction, with GDP declining by approximately 9.1%1.

Post-COVID Recovery (2021-2023): Following a further 1% contraction in 2021, the economy showed signs of recovery, with GDP growth rates of 1.5% in 2022 and 2.1% in 20231.

2024 Estimate: The GDP growth is estimated at 2.4% in 20243.

2025-2028 Projections: The GDP growth is expected to fluctuate between 0.9% and 2.3% through 2027, stabilizing at around 2.9% by 20283.

Pre-COVID (2019): Inflation was relatively low, averaging around 1.0%1.

COVID-19 Impact (2020): Inflation remained subdued at 0.6% due to reduced demand1.

Post-COVID Recovery (2021-2023): Inflation rates increased sharply, reaching 2.1% in 2021, 5.8% in 2022 and 4,6% in 20231.

2024 Estimate: Inflation is expected to decline to 1.5%3.

2025-2028 Projections: Inflation is expected to average 2.0% over the 2025 through 2028 period3.

Pre-COVID (2019): The unemployment rate was approximately 4.3%1.

COVID-19 Impact (2020): Unemployment rose to around 5.7%1.

Post-COVID Recovery (2021-2023): The rate gradually decreased to 5.4% in 2021 and 4.9% in 20222. By 2023, it was around 4.0%1.

2024 Estimate: Unemployment is estimated to remain at 4.0% for 20244.

2025-2028 Projections: Unemployment is expected to average 4.2% from 2025 through 20284.

Pre-COVID (2019): The fiscal deficit was around 3.7% of GDP2.

COVID-19 Impact (2020): The deficit widened significantly to 11.8% of GDP due to increased spending and reduced revenues3.

Post-COVID Recovery (2021-2023): The deficit narrowed to 8.3% in 2021, again improving in 2022 to a surplus of 0.3% before reverting to a deficit of 1.1% in 20232.

2024 Estimate: The deficit is expected to widen to 2.7% of GDP in 20242.

The Repo rate remained unchanged at 3.50 per cent as of September 2024 against a background of low inflation and continued credit growth.

Budget Highlights

An overview of the Revenue and Expenditure projections, as well as the commodity prices underpinning the 2024/2025 National Budget.

$54.224B

Total Estimated Revenue

$59.741B

Total Extimated Expenditure

US$77.80

Oil Price Assumption (per barrel)

US$3.59

Natural Gas Price Assumption (per MMBtu)

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