NEW YORK, Dec. 10, 2019–Deloitte today released the 19th edition of its “Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions,” which looks at three overarching themes: individual technologies are becoming ever more interconnected and interdependent, increasing their impact and value as a result; smartphones, computers, TVs, enterprise data centers and software, and IoT will drive most of the TMT industry’s revenue; and lastly many previously hyped services and products will finally become a reality in 2020.
“In 2020, we will start to see a canopy effect where industry players will work more closely together as individual technologies like edge AI chips, robots and private 5G become better connected, and promising innovations like low-earth orbit satellites finally come to life,” says Paul Sallomi, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP, global TMT industry leader and U.S. technology sector leader. “This year’s predictions are a helpful guide for TMT business leaders to break through the clutter and understand what to do next in order to be successful in 2020 and beyond.”
A new generation of edge artificial intelligence (AI) chips will reduce frustrations caused by lack of internet connection on smartphones by bringing AI to the device. Deloitte predicts that in 2020, more than 750 million edge AI chips—chips or parts of chips that perform or accelerate machine learning tasks on-device, rather than in a remote data center—will be sold, and that the edge AI chip market will continue to grow much more quickly than the overall chip market.
Deloitte predicts that more than 100 companies worldwide will begin testing private 5G deployments by the end of 2020, collectively investing a few hundred million dollars in labor and equipment. For many of the world’s largest businesses, private 5G will likely become the preferred choice, especially for industrial environments such as manufacturing plants, logistics centers and ports.
“The emergence of 5G will offer unprecedented opportunities for companies to grow and achieve new levels of productivity,” says Craig Wigginton, Partner, Deloitte & Touche LLP and Global Telecommunications Leader. “In conjunction with other ecosystem technologies, such as IoT, 5G will enable a connected future that will continue to dramatically transform enterprises worldwide.”
Of the almost one million robots Deloitte expects to be sold for enterprise use in 2020, just over half of them will be professional service robots, generating more than US$16 billion in revenue—30 percent more than in 2019. Professional service robots will pass industrial robots in terms of units in 2020 and revenue in 2021.
Deloitte predicts that global revenue from ad-supported video services will reach an estimated US$32 billion in 2020. Asia, including China and India, will lead with US$15.5 billion in revenue in 2020, nearly half of the global total. In China, India, and throughout the Asia-Pacific region, ad-supported video is the dominant model of delivering streaming video to consumers. By contrast, in the United States, most direct-to-consumer video offerings are pursuing an ad-free subscription model.
“This year’s Predictions report encompasses a range of topics that will have a profound and positive effect on the future of media,” says Mark Casey, Partner, Deloitte Netherlands and Global Leader, Telecom, Media & Entertainment. “As more companies across industries seek to reach and influence consumers with content, the technologies covered in Predictions will provide exciting new growth and partnership opportunities for businesses—from sports franchises to streaming companies to social networks.”
Antenna TV will thrive in 2020 with at least 1.6 billion people worldwide, representing 450 million households, enjoying some of their TV viewing via an antenna. Antenna TV will help the global TV industry to keep growing even in the face of falling TV viewing minutes and, in some markets, increasing numbers of consumers cutting the pay-TV cord.
Low-earth orbit satellites soar: By the end of 2020, there will be over 700 satellites in low-earth orbit (LEO) seeking to offer global broadband internet, up from roughly 200 at the end of 2019. These new “mega-constellations” of orbiting broadband stations will potentially add more than 16,000 individual satellites to that count over the coming years.
Give a listen: In 2020, the global audiobook market will grow by 25 percent to US$3.5 billion and the global podcasting market will increase by 30 percent from 2019 to reach US$1.1 billion in 2020, surpassing the US$1 billion mark for the first time.
A smarter smartphone: The smartphone multiplier market (hardware, content, services) will drive US$459 billion of revenue in 2020 alone and will grow between five to 10 percent annually through 2023, lifted by continued robust growth in its largest components. This means that in 2023, the smartphone multiplier market is likely to generate revenues of more than a half-trillion dollars per year.
The workhorse of the internet: Deloitte also predicts the global Content Delivery Network (CDN) market will reach US$14 billion in 2020, up more than 25 percent from 2019’s estimated US$11 billion. The market will double to US$30 billion by 2025, a compound annual growth rate of more than 16 percent.
Roll to work: Tens of billions of additional bicycle trips per year will take place in 2022. The increase in bicycling will double the number of regular bicycle users in many major cities around the world where cycling to work is still uncommon. Deloitte predicts a 1 percentage point rise in the proportion of people who bike to work during the three years from 2019 to 2022. Between 2020 and 2023, more than 130 million e-bikes (using all battery technologies) are expected to be sold.
Now in its 19th year, Deloitte's annual TMT Predictions provides an outlook on key trends in the technology, media and telecommunications industry sectors worldwide. Visit Deloitte.com/predictions to learn more and connect with us on Twitter: @DeloitteTMT, @Deloitte, @PaulSallomi, @MarkAntonyCasey, @CraigWigginton, @Jeff_Loucks, @pjvlee, @dunstewart, @dajarvis and #DeloittePredicts.