The TV and video market is highly dynamic and is characterized by a great number of drivers: digitalization, new market offers, and disruption by digital players ensure rapid change. Moreover, consumer expectations and usage habits are changing rapidly in the age of video-on-demand and mobile media consumption. This Deloitte Germany study on future scenarios for the TV and video industry by 2030 demonstrates what market players need to be ready for.
Traditional media concepts are a thing of the past, the entire industry is undergoing fundamental change: streaming services are no longer just platforms for the consumption of films and TV programs, now they are investing in the production and licensing of globally successful own content – and are thus in direct competition with the traditional TV and video industry. At the same time, broadcasters and media companies are launching their own on-demand offerings and global content producers are setting up their own streaming services.
Also, on-demand video has radically changed consumer behavior: consumers increasingly expect relevant and attractive TV and video content that can be accessed anytime, anywhere, and in the format that best suits their immediate needs.
All these factors are already having an effect on the market, but what will the future of TV and video look like in a few years' time? Will global platform giants such as Netflix, Amazon, Apple, and Google dominate the market? Or will the TV and video industry develop into a diverse ecosystem shaped by cooperation, in which traditional providers also have a role to play? Who has access to the customer and who can make best use of monetization possibilities?
The swiftly changing market landscape and ongoing diversification make it difficult to make long-term predictions about the future. That is why we chose a holistic approach for the Deloitte study on future scenarios for the TV and video industry by 2030 and look beyond the customary planning horizon of three to five years with the help of scenario design.
Our scenarios are based on a comprehensive set of drivers that will influence the future of the TV and video industry. We bundled these with the help of expert interviews and an external environment analysis based on natural language processing algorithms, and evaluated them in a matrix in relation to their degree of uncertainty and their individual effects on the TV and video industry.
As a result of our analysis, we developed the following four future scenarios for the TV and video industry by 2030:
As different as the four future scenarios for the TV and video industry by 2030 may appear, some universal implications are relevant for all market participants and they should take these into account in their strategic planning.
Broadcasters and content producers can no longer rely on their present market position. To secure their business models and future revenue streams, they must open themselves to cooperation and alliances, including with direct competitors. Joint production, joint distribution models, and even joint platforms are suitable ways of countering the threat from digital platform providers such as Netflix, Amazon, Apple, or Google.
Beyond this, established broadcasters and content producers must constantly invest in their digital competence, because technology has become a core element of their business processes. What is crucial for them is that they are equally attractive to both digital talents and creative minds. What Bill Gates wrote over 20 years ago will still apply in the future: "Content is King". However, to produce attractive content in a future shaped by digitalization and ultimately to reach the customer with it, first-class technological capabilities are a necessity.