Global Economic Outlook Q4 2009 |
Vår kvartalsvisa rapport Global Economic Outlook från Deloitte Research, ger en analys av risker och möjligheter i den globala ekonomin. Vår senaste rapport handlar tar upp följande:
In this issue of the Global economic outlook, our economists look at the shape of the imminent recovery across the globe, starting with a look at how the credit markets are likely to behave. This is a critical issue because weak credit markets could substantially offset the otherwise positive impact of aggressive monetary policy.
With regard to the U.S. economic outlook, the recovery may be stronger than expected due to a combination of stimulatory factors. Yet the recovery will be different in nature from past recoveries. Rather than being driven by the consumer, this recovery will be largely dependent on government spending and exports. And there are still risks, which include continued troubles for housing, banks, commercial property, and consumer balance sheets, and the possibility of serious inflation.
In Asia, there are very positive signs for China’s unfolding recovery, powered by massive fiscal and monetary expansion. This is boosting growth quickly, but may also be setting the stage for potential problems down the road. These include inflation, excess capacity, insufficient domestic demand, and financial problems for banks. While the authorities have begun the process of withdrawing monetary stimulus, a smooth transition to market generated growth remains uncertain.
Med Global Economic Outlook har Deloitte Research som målsättning att lansera kvartalsmässiga uppdateringar över världsekonomin och dess status. Framträdande ekonomer i fyra länder över tre kontinenter förklarar faktorer som styr den globala ekonomin. Syftet är att erbjuda klienter en mer strategisk bild över utvecklingen, i tillägg till de finansiella institutens många ekonomiska prognoser.
