Media Predictions 2012 Summaries
Targeted television advertisements miss the target
In 2012, Deloitte estimates that targeted TV advertising will likely represent less than one tenth of a percent of global television advertising revenues, which is less than $200 million out of a total market of $227 billion. A targeted TV ad, also known as an ‘addressable ad’, is a conventional TV commercial spot served specifically to a television set or computer. The ad is selected according to contextual data, such as income level, purchasing history or stage of life, for an individual viewer or household.
The schedule dominates, stillt
In 2012, Deloitte predicts that 95 percent of television programs watched will likely be viewed live or “near live”, that is within 24 hours of broadcast. This is little changed from a decade ago. People will allow the TV schedule to guide almost all of their viewing choices, regardless of whether they are watching shows on a conventional TV, computer, or smartphone; and regardless of the network technology used be it cable, satellite, phone line or conventional antenna.
All aboard for the catch-up commuter thanks to the portable DVRt
In 2012, Deloitte predicts that full-screen smartphone owners and tablet owners will likely use their devices as portable digital video recorders (DVRs) to catch up on five billion hours of TV while commuting on public transportation. This assumes an installed base of at least 400 million full-screen, high-end smartphones and over 100 million tablets at mid-year, and once weekly usage .
This will represent an acceleration in the of use of commuting time to watch programs -- especially among younger viewers who typically have the most devices, and who currently spend the least amount of time in front of a TV . Almost all of the video content will have been pre-loaded onto the device at home; network congestion, data caps, and uneven or inadequate mobile broadband speeds mean that TV streamed while commuting will likely be less than one percent of all video watched .
A “brand” new day for online adst
Deloitte predicts that in 2012 global spending on brand advertising online will likely grow faster than either traditional advertising or direct-response online advertising. This is not a zero sum game: all advertising will likely grow five percent in 2012 and all Internet advertising is likely to grow 11 percent . However, total advertising and overall Web advertising will likely grow slower than online branding, which we expect to rise 50 percent year-over-year to $20 billion as marketers realize and invest in online advertising’s ability to build long-term value for brands.
Market research is all in your head: MRI machines and mediat
Deloitte predicts that the marketing and advertising industry will likely have brains on the brain for 2012. Technology called functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) that provides a real-time, non-invasive window into the activity of living human brains will be used for market research and media creation. In 2012 an increasing proportion of all MRI machines and MRI hours will likely be spent fine-tuning products, services and marketing messages .
Extracting the premium from social gamest
Deloitte predicts that in 2012 revenue growth for the social games industry may slow to less than 20 percent. This compares to the period 2008 to 2010, when social gaming grew revenues 20-fold . Slowing growth makes it probable that social games makers will begin experimenting with different business models. Shifting the mix to more advertising and less virtual goods looks likely, and at least some games companies are likely to move away from the hallowed "freemium" model and start charging for games up front, especially for those games with higher production values and complexity.
Online coupon intermediaries: from novelty, to celebrity, to sizeable niche t
Deloitte predicts that in 2012 the number of people signed up to receive online coupon newsletters may decline moderately, as may the number of online coupon intermediaries (companies that aggregate discounts from retailers and distribute them to potential consumers via e-mail). However, the total value of coupon deals enabled by intermediaries around the world should remain in the tens of billions of dollars, and the revenues to those intermediaries will likely remain in the billions – a small amount within the context of all consumer retail, but still a significant sum.