Telecommunications Predictions 2012 Summaries
The $100 “smartphone” reaches its first half billion
In 2012, Deloitte predicts that by year-end over 500 million smartphones with a retail price of $100 or less will likely be in use worldwide.
The definition of a smartphone for this prediction is based on consumer perceptions of what a smartphone is, rather than the standard industry definition, which pivots on the type of operating system (OS) used. Many consumers, particularly middle majority adopters, are likely to consider phones as smart if they have touch screens or full keyboards and not what intangible OS is under the hood. Consumers may regard $100 smartphones as superior to feature phones from the same manufacturer, even though the two form factors might well share many components.
NFC and mobile devices: payments and more!
Deloitte predicts that in 2012 shipments of devices equipped with near field communications (NFC) capabilities will likely grow about 100 percent to almost 200 million. In 2013 there may be as many as 300 million NFC smartphones, tablets and eReaders sold. This compares to a 2010 when fewer than 50 million devices were purchased. Over the long run, NFC-enabled devices are likely to find a wide array of uses – especially for payments. But even in 2012, NFC capability will likely be used for a surprisingly diverse range of non-payment applications, including gaming, security, authentication and information.
Web bypass: delivering connectivity without the Internet
Deloitte predicts that by year-end 2012 over 80 percent of all wireless traffic going over short-range (under 10 meters) connections will likely be data; the volume of data carried over those connections will likely have doubled year-on-year, and that over one percent of all wireless data will likely be exchanged directly between devices instead of being routed through the Internet -- a 100 percent year on year increase. Although wireless data traffic will likely still be dominated by cellular and Wi-Fi for the near future, short range wireless connection technologies are likely to double in bits carried every year through 2015 and most likely beyond.
Here come more data caps: it’s the end of the (wire)line for unlimited Internet
Deloitte predicts that in 2012 a further one hundred million Internet users will likely need to start watching the meter on their wired broadband connection. Although most users of wireless data around the world have become accustomed to monthly bandwidth caps, the majority of broadband connections – over phone, cable or fibre – have been unlimited until now. But a recent acceleration in data usage is causing Internet Service Providers (ISPs) to rethink their all-you-can-eat pricing approach. At least an additional 20 ISPs, in five countries, serving more than 100 million users (or about 20 percent of the more than 500 million broadband subscribers globally ) will likely have explicit monthly bandwidth caps by the end of the year.
So many apps – so little to download
In 2012, Deloitte expects the number of apps available from all application stores to exceed two million. The size of the apps market more than doubled in 2011, reaching one million in December. As the global supply of apps grows, the proportion that are paid for (or even downloaded) by anyone other than the developers and their immediate families is likely to become ever smaller. Even considering branded apps alone, only 20 percent are downloaded more than 1,000 times.
This dearth of downloads does not necessarily mean the ‘apps model’ is fundamentally flawed. Instead, it reflects the ‘winner-takes-all’ nature of most online content markets, ranging from music tracks to television shows to online videos.