Technology Predictions 2012 Summaries
Consumer tech demand defies the economic headwinds
Deloitte predicts that overall global demand for consumer technology will likely grow in 2012. Record numbers of smartphones and tablet computers are likely to be purchased, and more computers of all descriptions are likely to be bought. Global television sales may see only modest growth on average, but sales are forecast to be robust in emerging countries . Even countries that are experiencing stagnant growth or mild recessions should see overall growth in consumer technology unit shipments, although the total dollar value may be flat as prices come down due to Moore’s Law and new form factors.
It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner
Deloitte predicts that in 2012 almost five percent of tablets sold will likely be to households that already own a tablet, which equates to five million tablets worth between $1.5 and $2 billion in revenue. Although this represents a small percentage of total tablet sales, given that the tablet market is only three years old it likely marks the most rapid ‘multi-anything’ market penetration in history. It is also worth remembering that in January 2010, aside from the Predictions estimate, the most aggressive forecast for total next-generation tablet sales that year was one million units
Billions and billions: big data becomes a big deal
Deloitte predicts that in 2012, “big data ” will likely experience accelerating growth and market penetration. As recently as 2009 there were only a handful of big data (BD) projects and total industry revenues were under $100 million. By the end of 2012 more than 90 percent of the Fortune500 will likely have at least some BD initiatives under way. Industry revenues will likely be in the range of $1-1.5 billion. But the industry is still in its infancy. Big data in 2012 will likely be dominated by pilot projects; there will probably be fewer than 50 full-scale big data projects (10 petabytes and above) worldwide.
Hard times for the hard disk: solid state storage surges
Deloitte predicts that in 2012 the storage world will likely reach a turning point. Although the traditional hard disk drive (HDD) is far from extinct, there will likely be a dramatic increase in adoption of solid state drive (SSD) technology across a number of markets.
By the end of 2012, storage for small mobile devices -- such as MP3 players, smartphones and tablets -- is likely to be over 90 percent SSDs , versus just 20 percent in 2006. By year-end, up to 15 percent of laptops and netbooks are expected to use SSDs, four times higher than in 2010 . Finally, even in the data center market – long an exclusive bastion of HDDs – SSDs could be used for up to 10 percent of new storage.
Ambient radio frequency power harvesting: a drop in the bucket
Deloitte predicts that in 2012 ambient Radio Frequency (RF) power harvesting products will likely remain a niche market with only moderate growth potential due to fundamental limits with the technology itself. While it is expected that beamed power products will enjoy relatively greater success, combined global revenue for both products is likely to remain modest – probably below $100 million. While revenue may rise in the coming years, increases will likely be steady rather than dramatic. Those who imagine a future in which handheld devices and tablets are powered by the sea of ambient RF energy that surrounds us are almost certain to be disappointed
3D printing is here – but the factory in every home isn’t here yet!
In 2012, Deloitte predicts that 3D printers will likely become a viable segment in several markets including the $22 billion global power tools market , and the industrial manufacturing market with growth rates of greater than 100 percent versus 2011. 3D printers are also expected to enjoy success in several niche areas such as the “do it yourself” home hobbyist market and various after-market support chains with long tail characteristics (such as small appliance and auto repair). There is also significant interest in the application of 3D printing in the biomedical sector . However, total combined printer sales will likely remain in the sub $200 million range, and those expecting a “replicator” for use at home will be disappointed.