Deloitte Consumer Spending Index Flat in July
New York, August 23, 2013 — The Deloitte Consumer Spending Index (Index) remained flat in July as improvements in real housing prices and labor markets offset weakness in other areas. The Index tracks consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending1.
“Real home prices continue to move higher from a year ago, while initial unemployment claims continue to trend downward,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s senior U.S. economist. “Real wages are still improving, albeit at a slower pace. While the Index has remained at the same level in the past three months, continued gains in housing and unemployment may help lift consumer confidence and spur future spending.”
The Index, which comprises four components — tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices — remained at 4.4 this month.
“Our recent back-to-school shopping survey showed that consumers are more positive about the U.S. economy than in past years,” said Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and retail & distribution sector leader. “However, nearly 60 percent of shoppers said they would buy only what the family needs. About one-third said they would spend more, but mainly due to the perception of higher prices and children needing more expensive items for school. Despite their improved optimism, consumers may be holding out for more proof that economic stability is lasting before any splurging, meaning retailers have to make their merchandise and offers extremely attractive to finish the back-to-school shopping season strong.”
For a historical analysis of Deloitte’s Consumer Spending Index compared to real consumer spending, visit: www.deloitte.com/us/retail/consumer-spending-index/July2013
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1 The Deloitte Consumer Spending Index is a proprietary methodology that analyzes economic factors to gauge consumer cash flow as an indicator of future spending. Deloitte’s analysis includes data from the U.S. Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Department of Labor.