Deloitte Consumer Spending Index Posts Small Decline
New York, December 19, 2013 — The Deloitte Consumer Spending Index (Index) tipped down slightly in November. The Index tracks consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending1.
“Despite a small decline this month, the Index remains relatively stable and is poised for improvement in 2014, should the key economic fundamentals stay on their current trajectory,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s senior U.S. economist. “Additionally, consumers may have both the willingness and the ability to spend, as households benefit from stock market gains, lower gas prices and the lowest debt-to-income ratio since 1980.”
The Index, which comprises four components — tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices — dropped to 3.7 this month from 3.8 last month.
“The holiday season should help retailers finish 2013 on a high note,” said Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and Retail & Distribution sector leader. “Better economic circumstances have boosted consumers’ holiday spirits compared to seasons past, and we expect this will help the retail industry see a modest 4.0 to 4.5 percent increase over last year’s holiday sales. Retailers have been marketing consistently and frequently across their online, mobile and brick-and-mortar channels, which may improve their inventory position heading into the new year. Consumers may need to act on those promotional offers soon, otherwise they may be disappointed to find empty shelves during the final days of holiday shopping.”
For a historical analysis of Deloitte’s Consumer Spending Index compared to real consumer spending, visit: www.deloitte.com/us/retail/consumer-spending-index/November2013
Deloitte is a leading presence in the retail and distribution industry, providing audit, consulting, risk management, financial advisory and tax services to more than 80 percent of the Fortune 500 retailers. With more than 1,400 professionals, Deloitte’s retail & distribution practice provides insights, services and solutions assisting retailers across all major subsectors including apparel, grocery, food and drug, wholesale and distribution and online. For more information about Deloitte’s retail & distribution sector, please visit www.deloitte.com/us/retail-distribution.
1The Deloitte Consumer Spending Index is a proprietary methodology that analyzes economic factors to gauge consumer cash flow as an indicator of future spending. Deloitte’s analysis includes data from the U.S. Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Department of Labor.
As used in this document, "Deloitte" means Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.