Retail sales rebound but outlook is uncertain as global economy slows down

January 18, 2012 – The world’s 250 largest retailers recorded sales growth in excess of 5 percent in fiscal year 2010 (encompassing fiscal years ended through June 2011), according to the 2012 Global Powers of Retailing report from Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL), in conjunction with STORES Media. The figures mark a substantial improvement on FY09, when the group recorded anaemic growth of just 1.2 percent, and were achieved despite the end of fiscal stimulus in the United States, the crisis in the Eurozone, and tighter monetary policy in key emerging markets.

The report also found that profitability improved, with net profit increasing to 3.8 percent in 2010, up from 3.1 percent in 2009. Nearly all of the companies that disclosed their bottom-line results (183 of 195) operated at a profit in 2010, and more than two-thirds of the reporting companies saw an improvement in their net profit margin. While this performance has been impressive, retailers will have been concerned by the deterioration in the global economy over the latter half of 2011 this year.

Dr. Ira Kalish, Director of Consumer Business for Deloitte Research, part of Deloitte Services LP in the United States, said: “The global economy is decelerating, with growth in 2012 likely to be slower than in 2011 in many of the world’s leading markets. The Eurozone crisis continues to drain investor and consumer confidence, while growth in the United States next year is unlikely to significantly reduce unemployment. China and the other BRIC economies are slowing as a result of tighter fiscal policy and weaker global growth, and while Japan is expected to grow strongly next year, this is only because 2011 was so poor following the devastating earthquake and tsunami.

“However, retailers may find some silver linings in this otherwise cloudy environment. One positive effect of slower global growth will be the continued dampening of commodity prices. For retailers, this means some improvement on the cost side of the ledger while retail price inflation in some economies presents an opportunity for improved profit margins, even in the context of slow top-line growth.

Kalish continued: “The most significant silver lining is the long term. Even though the economic environment in 2012 will be difficult, the long-term outlook for the global economy remains good.  Despite demographic and structural headwinds, China will continue to grow while other emerging markets such as India, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, and parts of South America and sub-Saharan Africa offer the possibility of stronger growth as well as new opportunities for the world’s leading retailers.”

Some of these opportunities are already evident. Latin American, African, and Middle Eastern retailers generated the strongest growth in fiscal year 2010. Seven of the 10 largest retailers in Latin America posted double-digit sales increases, resulting in a composite regional growth rate of 18 percent, while African and Middle Eastern retailers generated the highest compound annual growth rate of all regions over the 2005-2010 period.

Other key findings include:

• Ajggregate sales of the top 250 reached US\Ajggregate sales of the top 250 reached US$3.94 trillion.
• The share of total top 250 retail sales accounted for by the top 10 retailers slipped again in 2010 to 29.4 percent, down from 30 percent in 2009 and a high of 30.2 percent in 2008.
• Tesco PLC once again became the world’s third largest retailer, overtaking Metro AG by virtue of consistently solid sales growth over the last few years.
• The proportion of sales generated from foreign operations increased to 23.4 percent in 2010, up from 22.2 percent in 2009 and higher than the previous peak of 22.9 percent in 2008.
• The pace of globalization increased last year, with 88 new market entries made by 40 retailers across 57 countries.

Across channels

Though physical openings in new countries increased this year, another popular method for retailers to use to test new markets was to establish an online presence. Most retailers operate across multiple channels (e.g., stores, catalogues, online, call centers, social networking, digital displays, mobile), but few understand how consumers are using and shopping across each of these channels and even fewer have a seamless, consistent, and comprehensive multichannel strategy. 

Kalish added: “As consumers become savvier, they are increasingly taking charge of their shopping experience, identifying and exploiting many different sources of information and channels to optimize the different elements of their shopping journey. Since customers do not distinguish between channels, retailers will have to support seamless integration among all their channels such as access to their full range of products, customer information, and order information. 

“In less than a few years, it is likely that consumers will expect to use a mobile device to get real-time inventory information about the closest stores or to order a product while in a store and have it delivered at home. In 2012, retailers will need to continue developing innovative multichannel solutions.”

The development of the Ukrainian retail sector

The Ukrainian retail sector demonstrated dynamic growth in 2010- 2011, with Ukrainian retailers’ average sales volume growth ratio more than twice that of overseas counterparts that participated in the survey.

The Ukrainian market is less consolidated than many developed markets, with only a few of the world’s largest retailers operating on it. International players plan to expand their network presence in 2012. However, the appeal of Ukraine to global retail networks has decreased since last year, according to the CBRE rating.

On the other hand, Deloitte experts point out that Ukrainian consumers have become more practicable and tend to spend less, which is why retailers need to continue looking for ways to maintain profitability.

“High margin levels can be maintained by providing supplementary high margin services, at the same time improving service. Therefore, it is important to study and analyze consumer tastes on a constant basis and launch on time new products that have already conquered global markets. E-commerce has become a promising trend as a supplement to the major forms of retail business. Special emphasis needs to be given to marketing activities in social networks – consumers place trust in this source of information, especially buyers under 30 - 35 years old,” says Olga Shamrytska, a senior manager and head of the Deloitte retail group.

To download a copy of the 2012 Global Powers of Retailing, go to www.deloitte.com/consumerbusiness

About the report

Top 10 retailers:

Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, in conjunction with STORES Media, is pleased to present the 15th annual Global Powers of Retailing report. The report identifies the 250 largest retailers around the world based on publicly available data for the companies’ fiscal year 2010 (encompasses fiscal year ends through June 2011). The report also provides an outlook for the global economy, trends for retailers to consider in the coming months, and an analysis of market capitalization in the retail industry.